Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[wobblehead]

Quote of Mobile NWS "TIMING BASED ON ECMWF WHICH HAS IN OUR VIEW DONE THE
BEST WITH THIS WHOLE EVENT."
They made a similar statement in their forecast product for the "similar winter event" back in December that brought frozen precip to the Houston/Galveston vicinities.
Perhaps ECMWF is a better tool for their skill set than it is for the other NWS offices. This is not to imply that their product is more accurate than another office's.
At any rate I find that this "winter event" reminds me very much of keeping up with tropical events in Talking Tropics. Brings some fun to my most unfavorite time of year.

[Brent]

Not along the coast though

Way too warm

But one run, I'm not sold on it.

[Brent]

0z GFS... much wetter.









Total QPF, A LOT better:

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z NAM --> Much drier. A horrible run for snow lovers.

00z GFS --> Looking better. Wetter than the 12z and 18z for most. A good run for snow lovers.

[LaBreeze]

Dry as a bone here in Southwestern LA. Expecting really cold temps and no moisture. Anyone see anything different, please inform.

[RNGR]

More snow?

Edit: no snow this run


got a bit excited there

[Janie2006]

Hmmmmm. I'm still thinking it's just too warm at the immediate coast, although wet roadways could certainly pose a difficulty after frontal passage. I'm even willing to entertain a short rain/snow mix at the end of the event. My "intuition" says mostly rain, but I admit there are other factors which could come into play on Thursday.

[Pileus]

From NWS Greenville/Spartanburg SC
1226AM Jan 6 2010
The 12Z ECM and GFS both show a clear connection of the H850 moisture over our area back to the Great Lakes thru Sat. I cannot recall ever seeing this kind of evidence of a Great Lakes connection to the low level moisture in the nodels before.Strong NWLY flow and good CAA during this time as well This increases confidence that a significant snowfall event is likely by the time it ends late Sat night. Intersting stuff from GSP

[cycloneye]

You can see how are the temperatures changing in the deep south on the graphic that updates constantly.

[SunnyThoughts]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010


A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS...FOLLOW
FOR THURSDAY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FURTHER INLAND
ALLOWING FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW OVER INLAND AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM NEW AUGUSTA MISSISSIPPI TO GREENVILLE ALABAMA. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

[timNms]

The bad side of the cold

1200 PM EXTREME COLD JACKSON 32.32N 90.21W
01/05/2010 E20 F HINDS MS BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** REPORT OF FATALITY DUE TO
HYPOTHERMIA...ELDERLY MAN FOUND IN UNHEATED HOUSE.

[SunnyThoughts]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
531 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE 06.00 CYCLE WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT/FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE GULF COAST ON THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLIP ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AS TO ALLOW FOR LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS TO BE
JUST DEEP AND WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO SCALE BACK TO
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ALBEIT A COLD RAIN DURING THE DAY OVER
THESE ZONES AND STILL COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SLEET IN A FEW LOCALES.
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY...WE FIND THE CRITICAL WINTER
WEATHER THICKNESSES BEING CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE LIQUID/FROZEN LINE OF DEMARCATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH THE DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES CONSIDER A TRACE TO A LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF LIGHT SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS DEFINES THE
"LITTLE" ACCUMULATION PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ALMOST CLOSE TO
CRITERIA FOR ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...LOCAL
POLICY CALLS FOR ISSUANCE OF THIS TO BE WITHIN 12-24 HRS OF AN EVENT.
WILL PASS ALONG TO DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS MORE WEATHER MODEL DATA AND
MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES. THURSDAY EVENING...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO
LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES OVERTAKE
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT/LOW.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END AFTER 06 UTC FRIDAY. A VERY
DANGEROUS SETUP FOR MOTORISTS AS PRECIPITATION DEPOSITED ON THE ROADS
THURSDAY HAVE THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING INTO BLACK ICE AS
NIGHTTIME LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S

[RNGR]

The bad side of the cold

1200 PM EXTREME COLD JACKSON 32.32N 90.21W
01/05/2010 E20 F HINDS MS BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** REPORT OF FATALITY DUE TO
HYPOTHERMIA...ELDERLY MAN FOUND IN UNHEATED HOUSE.

that is very sad. you'd think he would have let some of his family or friends know his heat was out. we helped one our elderly neighbors whos heat went out a few days ago because he couldnt afford to get a hotel room and get the heat repaired.

[Dionne]

The bad side of the cold

1200 PM EXTREME COLD JACKSON 32.32N 90.21W
01/05/2010 E20 F HINDS MS BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** REPORT OF FATALITY DUE TO
HYPOTHERMIA...ELDERLY MAN FOUND IN UNHEATED HOUSE.

Unfortunately, more will follow. The really extreme cold isn't here yet.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know this is a little off topic and still have this event to get through but for you guys, me included, that are disappointed in not getting in on the winter precip here is a really nice detailed long range discussion out of Lake Charles this morning...

SUNDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BITTERLY COLD...IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S...AND THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THIS
FORECAST AS THE LIGHTER WINDS PERMIT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO OCCUR AFTER DARK ON SATURDAY. RECORD LOWS RANGING FROM 10-15 F
FOR SUNDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE SAFE AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THE SOME
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THEM IN JEOPARDY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS PORTRAYED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...THOUGH AT THE SURFACE THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE DEEP TROF HEADS EAST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...THE GFS
FORECASTS THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT ENTRENCHED UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THIS IS THE DEGREE AND
SPEED THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MODERATES. THE GFS IS VERY QUICK TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES...SHOWING 850MB VALUES ON THE PLUS SIDE OF
ZERO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE STUBBORN...AND DOES NOT
SHOW ABOVE ZERO AT 850MB UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MEX NUMBERS
TRENDED COOLER...MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF...AND THIS TREND
WAS ACCEPTED.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO INDUCE NW GULF
CYCLOGENESIS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HOUR SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE LOW...WHICH IS REMARKABLY
CLOSE FOR 7 TO 8 DAYS OUT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF THE THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AREAWIDE COMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD THE COLDER
PROFILE OF THE ECMWF COME TO BEAR...PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE A
PROBLEM. FOR THE TIME BEING...CONTENT TO FORECAST ALL LIQUID GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE AND THE UNCERTAINTY. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

There is still a little hope

[Ivanhater]

Still showing snow for Pensacola..I'm holding out hope!

Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

[jhpigott]

Just an added snippet from the FINAL HPC discussion issued at 1:24 PM today..

SERIOUS COLD OUTBREAK THREAT FOR FLORIDA AS THE NEXT COLD SURGE
DRIVES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH VERY LOW MID
LEVEL HTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROF THAT HAS A NEAR -4
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN ITS HTS AND A -4.5 TO 5 NEG STANDARDIZED
H850 TEMP ANOMALY BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DEEP INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI. THIS
BEGINS TO RIVAL THE DEC 1989 AND POSSIBLY THE JAN 1977 COLD
OUTBREAKS ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED ON DAY 3 BY A COLD
FRONT WITH OVERRUNNING WINTRY TYPE OF PRECIPTAION ACROSS NRN AND
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST 12 GFS CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER COLD POOL OFFERS A THREAT OF COASTAL SNOW ACROSS NERN FL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

[attallaman]

The bad side of the cold

1200 PM EXTREME COLD JACKSON 32.32N 90.21W
01/05/2010 E20 F HINDS MS BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** REPORT OF FATALITY DUE TO
HYPOTHERMIA...ELDERLY MAN FOUND IN UNHEATED HOUSE.

Unfortunately, more will follow. The really extreme cold isn't here yet.

That's too bad. Apparently nobody offered to check on him. Sorry to hear about that.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
206 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-072006-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
206 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK IN THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...GENERALLY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON...ALEXANDER CITY AND LAFAYETTE. STAY
TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR ZERO OR POSSIBLY INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

MSZ028>033-038-039-070445-
/O.CON.KJAN.WS.W.0001.100107T0900Z-100108T0000Z/
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...
WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE
245 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY.

SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT TIMES...IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE MIXTURE OF SNOW...
FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET WILL ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGING
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$