Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Dionne]

NWS Jackson MS is forecasting snow flurries along what they call the I-20 corridor. I'm just south of that area. Clouds are moving in and temperature is in place. 26.6F at 12:44 PM.

I discovered our turnips did not make it through the cold of the last 2 nights. Cabbage is good, lettuce looks marginal.

[Cristina]

got a quick half inch of snow last night right before the precip pulled out. then our forecasted low was 22, but we dropped all the way down to 15!! wind chill ranges from -5 to 5 above this morning. now we have a chance of snow on monday. AWESOME

Where is the chance of snow, in GA? we still have a lot of snow on the ground. We are trapped in our subdivision due to the icy roads.. can't get out, kids are sledding up and down the main road... I had no idea that Cherokee County, where I live, is one of the hardest hit by the snow... eventhough the sun is out, the snow has not melted... enjoying the beautiful snow..I tried posting some pics, but don't know how..

[RNGR]

got a quick half inch of snow last night right before the precip pulled out. then our forecasted low was 22, but we dropped all the way down to 15!! wind chill ranges from -5 to 5 above this morning. now we have a chance of snow on monday. AWESOME

Where is the chance of snow, in GA? we still have a lot of snow on the ground. We are trapped in our subdivision due to the icy roads.. can't get out, kids are sledding up and down the main road... I had no idea that Cherokee County, where I live, is one of the hardest hit by the snow... eventhough the sun is out, the snow has not melted... enjoying the beautiful snow..I tried posting some pics, but don't know how..

It looks like most areas north of Atlanta have a chance of rain/snow on monday night. I'm stuck in my neighborhood as well. Although some of the ice has melted in the sun. It's funny because we got more accumulation on the road than in the yard.

[Brent]

[timNms]

What's going on in the gulf around Brownsville, TX?
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true

[wxman57]

What's going on in the gulf around Brownsville, TX?
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true

Just some moisture with the passage of the upper trof axis. Pressures there are 1033mb+ and rising as high pressure builds out into the Gulf.

[Ntxw]

Part of a system\shortwave that's going to bring rain, possibly again possibly, bring wintry precip to parts of central and south Florida. Shouldn't effect anyone else in the deep south.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's a winter wonderland in Boone, NC right now! The temperature is hovering around 10F (+/- 2 degrees) with breezy winds, light snow falling and some blowing snow, and there is tons of snow on the ground. I wish it were a bit warmer, but oh well, i'll take it while I can. It rarely ever gets this wintry in Oklahoma City except for during that blizzard I missed on Christmas Eve.

UPDATE: Still snowing several hours later, but the lightness of the snow has only generated about a dusting (1/2"?) of accumulation this afternoon and evening. It looks like the intensity is starting to pick up now though, so I wouldn't be surprised if we received an additional inch or two by the morning. It is a bit hard to accurately measure this snow though, even by estimating, because not only is there already a thick snowpack on the ground from previous storms, but the new snow that is falling is also getting blown around quite a bit. The best way it seems is to estimate based on how much is gradually building on the cars and also watching as old footsteps disappear.

[Kennethb]

Earlier today Lake Charles NWS put a few record low maximums for today in their discussion:

LCH...35F...1968.
BPT...35F...1988.
ARA...33F...1988.
LFT...31F...1988.
AEX...29F...1971.

Not that I would even say it will happen this year, but in 1968 and 1988 we had two snows both of those years here in Baton Rouge.

1968 It was sometime in February and around March 18.
1988 It was around February 4 and 6, or there abouts. I know it was a friday afternoon and evening and again Sunday am.

This does not guarantee it will snow this year, but indicates perhaps there is hope.

[RNGR]

Well folks, looks like late next week and weekend will be a very interesting time. GFS has been very consistant in developing a powerful gulf storm with plenty of moisture.
18z GFS 192hr:

18z GFS 204hr

18z GFS 850mb 192hr

18z GFS 850mb 204hr

[Brent]

The GFS looks like an epic ice and snowstorm for the south, and it's only 8 days out so I think it really needs to be watched. It has been extremely consistent with the idea of a whopper storm for somebody and a lot more moisture than this last storm.

[jpigott]

not every day, heck, not ever, do you see a forecast like this from Miami NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2010

...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COLD RAIN TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL
FOR A HISTORICAL FREEZE AND EXTRAORDINARILY LOW WIND CHILL
VALUES ON SUNDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH MODEL GUIDANCE
AND METEOROLOGICAL REASONING FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AN UNUSUALLY POWERFUL COLD FRONT...MARKING THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SIBERIAN AIR MASS...CONTINUES TO SURGE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S...WITH THIS THE WARMEST AIR THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 22-24Z...SHOULD BE LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NAPLES TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 09/00Z...AND WILL SURGE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE BY 09/04Z. THE
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AS MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM INCREASES...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG/ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME JUST ABOVE
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. POCKETS OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE DATA...AND EXPECT
THIS TO LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN...
BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND ENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PARTIAL THICKNESS METHOD OF FORECASTING P-TYPE STILL SUGGESTS THAT
A FEW ICE PELLETS MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN
END ON SATURDAY. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR AT ALL...IT WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY BE TO THE NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM EVERGLADES
CITY TO WEST PALM BEACH. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY MAY BE
READINGS AT MIDNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS/RAIN...AND PERSISTENT COLD
ADVECTION RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RISE TOMORROW. THUS...
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM 09/12Z-10/00Z
WILL BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS AGREE THAT AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME...A POWERFUL/SECONDARY MID-
LEVEL TROUGH -- CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS -- IS FORECAST TO BE SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND SHOULD INDUCE A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THIS
WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AS 1040 MB HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS...AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINTAINING THE SOUTHWARD
ADVECTION OF VERY COLD AIR AND LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A WIND CHILL WATCH AND FREEZE WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING EVERY
COASTAL ZONE ON BOTH COASTS...WITH WIND CHILL/FREEZE WARNINGS
LIKELY REQUIRED BY TOMORROW. THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE A
SIGNIFICANT ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
PROJECTED THICKNESS VALUES AND EXTREMELY LOW DEW POINTS POINTING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HISTORICAL FREEZE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND
LOW WIND CHILL CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
AND WILL MAKE MAJOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS -- AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 SEEM UNREALISTIC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, Miami's forecast for tomorrow is definitely one you almost never see down there. Only 50F for a high and 35F for a low with a good chance of precipitation?! Wow. It would be kind of cool if they could get a couple of ice pellets or snow flakes down there before the precipitation ended.

[vbhoutex]

Radar returns are showing snow in the NO and BR areas as well as down at Houma. Even a little showing up SW of Houston. Are any stations reporting it? Can any of our members see any flakes? Best guess is that it is all virga like it has been here.

edit almost midnight cst: Radar now showing snow increasing and moving into the panhandle of FL from P'cola Eastward.

[fwbbreeze]

radar out of Eglin AFB is looking interesting but I am sure nothing is making it to the surface.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=evx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[LaBreeze]

A local met did mention something this evening about how "interesting" things may get next weekend around here. Anyone else hearing about another chance of wintery precip and cold temps for next weekend. Please elaborate if you do. Thanks.

[Brent]

A local met did mention something this evening about how "interesting" things may get next weekend around here. Anyone else hearing about another chance of wintery precip and cold temps for next weekend. Please elaborate if you do. Thanks.

A big moisture-laden storm. Lot of uncertainty still. A few runs after shown potential on the backside for a changeover(others show it way too warm). It's about 8 days out so plenty of time to watch and I'm sure it'll change.

[Cristina]

It looks like most areas north of Atlanta have a chance of rain/snow on monday night. I'm stuck in my neighborhood as well. Although some of the ice has melted in the sun. It's funny because we got more accumulation on the road than in the yard.

What you're seeing is it for this Monday night, or the the week after? I hope it's not the day after tomorrow, b/c our roads are still iced even though D.O.T came out last night and de-iced them, they froze again... we're still stuck and not able to get out... this is what I feared!

[RNGR]

What you're seeing is it for this Monday night, or the the week after? I hope it's not the day after tomorrow, b/c our roads are still iced even though D.O.T came out last night and de-iced them, they froze again... we're still stuck and not able to get out... this is what I feared!

well things have changed. mostly cloudy monday night. maybe some flurries. you can look at the forecast for your area here
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/

[Cristina]

What you're seeing is it for this Monday night, or the the week after? I hope it's not the day after tomorrow, b/c our roads are still iced even though D.O.T came out last night and de-iced them, they froze again... we're still stuck and not able to get out... this is what I feared!

well things have changed. mostly cloudy monday night. maybe some flurries. you can look at the forecast for your area here
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/

Great, thanks!