Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

If there is going to be frozen precip, again if, I would think it would be west, west-central, north, and northeast Texas. Long week sigh.

[wxman22]

Yep the European still looks nice for some wintry weather.

[Portastorm]

12z run of the Euro looks pretty good for next weekend, doesn't it?

Don't forget what wxman57 told us earlier last week. For whatever reason, the 12z GFS runs have been running warmer this season than the 0z runs for some reason. Consider that with this Euro run and it looks encouraging. Lots more to watch though.

[Ntxw]

With such a big storm depicted like this, wouldn't there be an upper level cold core low tracking further north across Texas than the surface low over the gulf?

[Portastorm]

With such a big storm depicted like this, wouldn't there be an upper level cold core low tracking further north across Texas than the surface low over the gulf?

There is Ntxw. Look at the upper left panel of the Euro run. Upper level energy associated with this system covers much of the state. This is a massive storm with low pressure stacked vertically (almost like a hurricane) at several levels and a surface feature a little further southeast into the Gulf.

Regardless of whether it is rain or snow, this formidable system easily has the potential to create severe weather in Texas. Like srainhoutx posted earlier ... it was this same system that created havoc over in China.

[iorange55]

With such a big storm depicted like this, wouldn't there be an upper level cold core low tracking further north across Texas than the surface low over the gulf?

There is Ntxw. Look at the upper left panel of the Euro run. Upper level energy associated with this system covers much of the state. This is a massive storm with low pressure stacked vertically (almost like a hurricane) at several levels and a surface feature a little further southeast into the Gulf.

Regardless of whether it is rain or snow, this formidable system easily has the potential to create severe weather in Texas. Like srainhoutx posted earlier ... it was this same system that created havoc over in China.

It's definitely going to be a huge storm, and if it is indeed snow at least in some parts of texas you'd have to imagine the accumulations would be pretty impressive given how strong this storm is.

[Ntxw]

I hope this is the blockbuster snowstorm we've all been waiting for =P. Until then what a nice week we have coming up can finally leave our caves for some outdoor fun! Relatively.

[gofrogs]

Varbatim wise what is the euro sying for north texas for late next week.

[serenata09]

So what exactly did this storm do in China?

[iorange55]

So what exactly did this storm do in China?

More than three inches (7.6 cm) of snow accumulated in the city center on Sunday, according to China's National Meteorological Center.

Chinese state media called it the highest snowfall in the capital in a single day in January since 1951.

Upward of 8 inches (20 cm) was recorded in the suburbs of Changping near the Great Wall of China.


More than 11 inches (28 cm) of snow fell on Seoul on Monday, the heaviest in a single day since Korea began conducting meteorological surveys in 1937.

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/180865/reco ... r-30-hours

[srainhoutx]

Interesting Final Extended Disco from the HPC today...


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EST SAT JAN 09 2010

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 12 2010 - 12Z SAT JAN 16 2010

THE 00Z/09 AND 12Z/09 DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM ON TRACK
WITH THE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OVER THE LOWER 48 FOR THIS MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z/09 ECMWF ESPECIALLY HAD GREAT
CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS 00Z RUN WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
AFFECTING NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER. THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
ALONG/OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...AS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
BORDER STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE THEREAFTER. SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC ENERGY WILL REACH CA
WEDNESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT PCPN...FOLLOWED BY 500MB RIDGING
BEHIND IT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

FINAL PROGS STAYED WITH THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS...A BLEND OF THE
00Z/09 GEFS MEAN AND THE 00Z/09 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THROUGH
THURSDAY DAY 5. FINAL GRAPHICS THEN TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/09 ECMWF AND THE 12Z/08 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY DAYS 6 AND 7.

THE PACIFIC ENERGY REACHING CA ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TX BY FRIDAY WHERE A LARGE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO FORM. THE 00Z AND 12Z/09 MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOSED UPPER SYS WILL TRIGGER
SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY DAYS 6/7....WITH HEAVY OVERRUNNING PCPN TO ITS
NORTH. 12Z/09 DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THEIR LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF BIG BEND FOR FRIDAY
DAY 6...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS WAS BRIEFLY ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY. LATEST 00Z/09 ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUPPORTED MOVING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER SYS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/09
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THAT BEING SAID...TIMING THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED UPPER LOW IS STILL A RISKY ENDEAVOR BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING AN AREA
OF RELATIVELY HIGH SPREAD ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE TX UPPER
LOW BY SATURDAY DAY 7. AT ANY RATE IT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE
HEAVY PRECIP TO TX AND THE GULF COAST STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

ALSO...SHORTWAVE/VORTEX CHAOS INITIALLY SHOWN BY 12Z/09
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOVE LATITUDE 60N
WEDNESDAY DAY 4 AND BEYOND COULD WORK SOUTH TOWARDS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOWERING OUR SKILL IN
FORECASTING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND POLAR BRANCHES OF
THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW 12Z/09 ECMWF...HOWEVER...HAD VERY GOOD RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHER LATITUDE FEATURES ACROSS CANADA
RIGHT THRU SATURDAY DAY 7...MAKING IT BY FAR THE PREFERRED MODEL
IN THAT AREA.

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST ONCE THE ERN 500MB TROUGH EXITS THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR PREFERRED 12Z/09 ECMWF BRINGS A
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
PCPN IN THE SERN STATES INTERACTS WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR LATER NEXT WEEKEND SOMEWHERE FROM THE THE OH/TN VLY
EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.


FLOOD

[txagwxman]

I am noticing that the GFS runs are not as cold with the low as they were yesterday...we won't see snow in Austin/Houston at this pace...but will watch. I don't think there will be enough cold air to play with.

Meanwhile, expecting another hard freeze, my dewpoint is 8F right now, and I had outside pipes frozen even while they were covered, so I am dripping tonight...i expect upper 10s again Tomball.

[srainhoutx]

I am noticing that the GFS runs are not as cold with the low as they were yesterday...we won't see snow in Austin/Houston at this pace...but will watch. I don't think there will be enough cold air to play with.

Meanwhile, expecting another hard freeze, my dewpoint is 8F right now, and I had outside pipes frozen even while they were covered, so I am dripping tonight...i expect upper 10s again Tomball.

Glad I double wrapped. No pipe issues over here, but will lose some tropicals. I agree that we'll have another very cold night as the High settles in now.

[txagwxman]

I am noticing that the GFS runs are not as cold with the low as they were yesterday...we won't see snow in Austin/Houston at this pace...but will watch. I don't think there will be enough cold air to play with.

Meanwhile, expecting another hard freeze, my dewpoint is 8F right now, and I had outside pipes frozen even while they were covered, so I am dripping tonight...i expect upper 10s again Tomball.

Glad I double wrapped. No pipe issues over here, but will loose some tropicals. I agree that we'll have another very cold night as the High settles in now.

Didn't even matter...the brick was so cold that the pipe froze behind the brick...

Already stopped 2 neighbors sprinkler valves today...they were out and it was flooding their yards.

[austinrunner]

This is the 500mb standard deviation map for the potential big storm next weekend, based on the 0z GFS run. The heights were progged to be 3.5 standard deviations below normal.

[KatDaddy]

From the Brownsville AFD:

THIS FEATURE IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING FEATURE WHICH EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TX LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS STRONGER TROUGH TRIES TO SPIN UP A PRETTY SERIOUS MARINE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND HOLDS UP THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAINS FOR MUCH OF TX.

[srainhoutx]

Going to be another crazy week for TX. Amarillo, Lubbock and Midland/Odessa are now mentioning snow Thursday night into Friday.

[gofrogs]

I wonder what the 18z will have in store my guess a cooling trend.

[KatDaddy]

From the Houston-Galveston AFD:

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE THEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A STRONG COASTAL LOW TO FORM AND MOVE UP THE TEXAS COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT SE TX AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.

Almost has the tone of an approaching tropical cyclone during the Summer.
As very crazy week ahead watching model runs and forecast. This could be a major weather event for the Upper TX Coast.

[vbhoutex]

From the Houston-Galveston AFD:

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE THEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A STRONG COASTAL LOW TO FORM AND MOVE UP THE TEXAS COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT SE TX AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.

Almost has the tone of an approaching tropical cyclone during the Summer.
As very crazy week ahead watching model runs and forecast. This could be a major weather event for the Upper TX Coast.

And if the earlier cold shown on the models comes back and verifies we might as well shut it down for about a week here!!LOL! I know that verification is very unlikely, but we have seen the models give and take away and give again before. Definitely going to be watching closely all week! The only good thing about 15 degree lows without any precipitation is it definitely kills the mosquitos. NWS Hou/Galv is calling for another night like last night.