Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Probably shouldn't focus too much on the surface low over the gulf, It will help enhance moisture but what's more important would be the upper level low tracking across the state. That should be of more immediate impact on us.

[austinrunner]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
447 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2010

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY BRINGING A NUMBER OF
THREATS. HEAVY RAIN WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
THURSDAY. FRIDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
STRENGTH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AND
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET.

[iorange55]

Weird how San Antonio Austin NWS mentions snow or sleet, but DFW NWS mentioned nothing but heavy rainfall. I don't see why they wouldn't even mention the possibility of it since some of the models have been showing it.

[Texas Snowman]

Weird how San Antonio Austin NWS mentions snow or sleet, but DFW NWS mentioned nothing but heavy rainfall. I don't see why they wouldn't even mention the possibility of it since some of the models have been showing it.

Just my personal opinion, but after years of reading FW NWS AFDs, I almost think of them as the "anti-winter weather" forecast office. For whatever reason, they just seem to me to be reluctant to bite on winter weather events until they are at the doorstep.

In fact, living a mere 5 miles from Oklahoma, I read OKC NWS AFDs faithfully and find them to be a little more willing to discuss what could happen.

Not saying FW isn't accurate, but they just seem hesitant to even discuss winter weather.

But perhaps I am biased. After all, look at my moniker to see MY feelings about winter weather!

[Texas Snowman]

In fact, if my memory is correct, OKC was talking about the potential of an Oklahoma/North Texas snow event for Christmas Eve quite a bit earlier (like maybe a few days) than DFW was.

And we know how that turned out! A true white Christmas, the North Texas snow event of a lifetime!

[Portastorm]

Have any of you looked at the QPF amounts generated by the 0z GFS for this coming storm system? If not, you should!

What is really disturbing is that this morning's prelim discussion out of the HPC says the 0z is too fast with the system. As my son's little league coach used to say: Holy Schniekees (sh-nie-kees)! Don't ask me what it means as I have no clue!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_tpp_180l.gif

[txagwxman]

18F here again in Tomball...

ECMWF looks promising for snow Abiliene to San Angelo maybe hill country, however, the 6z GFS/Canadian aren't cold enough. If ECMWF right, and there are many ECMWF ensemble members that like it, expect a heavy wet snow from San Angelo to Abilene, and maybe as far south as NW of Austin on Friday night and Saturday morning, thicknesses on the ECMWF are 546, with 850 mb < 0C. Houston rain.

However, still 6-7+ days away...and it is still a long ways out.

[srainhoutx]

Have any of you looked at the QPF amounts generated by the 0z GFS for this coming storm system? If not, you should!

What is really disturbing is that this morning's prelim discussion out of the HPC says the 0z is too fast with the system. As my son's little league coach used to say: Holy Schniekees (sh-nie-kees)! Don't ask me what it means as I have no clue!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_tpp_180l.gif

The ECMWF solution is what the HPC is biting right now. A slower movement would lead to some higher QPF. Let's see what this system looks like in a couple of days and where it comes onshore along the W Coast. Also noticed the the SPC is not bullish on convective issues, but does leave the door open for some changes. The GOM has chilled down a bit after a month+ of "colder weather". We have to remember we are still in the 4-8 day Long Range for the SPC.

[Portastorm]

18F here again in Tomball...

ECMWF looks promising for snow Abiliene to San Angelo maybe hill country, however, the 6z GFS/Canadian aren't cold enough. If ECMWF right, and there are many ECMWF ensemble members that like it, expect a heavy wet snow from San Angelo to Abilene, and maybe as far south as NW of Austin on Friday night and Saturday morning, thicknesses on the ECMWF are 546, with 850 mb < 0C. Houston rain.

However, still 6-7+ days away...and it is still a long ways out.

I believe accumulating snowfall in Austin was one of the signs of the 2012 apocalypse mentioned by the Mayans.

[Tireman4]

18F here again in Tomball...

ECMWF looks promising for snow Abiliene to San Angelo maybe hill country, however, the 6z GFS/Canadian aren't cold enough. If ECMWF right, and there are many ECMWF ensemble members that like it, expect a heavy wet snow from San Angelo to Abilene, and maybe as far south as NW of Austin on Friday night and Saturday morning, thicknesses on the ECMWF are 546, with 850 mb < 0C. Houston rain.

However, still 6-7+ days away...and it is still a long ways out.

Let me start with ...thanks Txagwxman for all you do. Second, when you are saying 6-7+ days away and it is still a long ways out...you mean that Houston ( might.....just a small might) get in on the action..or no way Jose...

[gofrogs]

18F here again in Tomball...

ECMWF looks promising for snow Abiliene to San Angelo maybe hill country, however, the 6z GFS/Canadian aren't cold enough. If ECMWF right, and there are many ECMWF ensemble members that like it, expect a heavy wet snow from San Angelo to Abilene, and maybe as far south as NW of Austin on Friday night and Saturday morning, thicknesses on the ECMWF are 546, with 850 mb < 0C. Houston rain.

However, still 6-7+ days away...and it is still a long ways out.

What baout for the dfw area.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, let's give this a little more time before we all get worked up. There are a lot of things that no one knows with any certainty right now. The system is still well out in the Pacific and sampling (other that satellite, aircraft and ship data) will not occur for several days. It's hard to ignore the guidance, but sometimes we see wild shifts as guidance tries to deal with subtle changes after a very long cold stretch and hemispheric activity that we have witnessed since early December. Just some food for thought IMHO. Think of it like a rubber band. At some point that rubber band will pop after being stretched for such a long time.

[amawea]

I want to see you get some snow Portastorm, but I would like to see a little more northward forecast on this as I want some snow in north Arkansas! All we've had so far this winter is a dusting. We've had sub freezing temperatures for highs everyday except one for 3 weeks now along the Ar/Mo border. This morning my digital weather station showed a low of 0.9 degrees! All trhis bitter cold and no snow is getting old.

[Portastorm]

I want to see you get some snow Portastorm, but I would like to see a little more northward forecast on this as I want some snow in north Arkansas! All we've had so far this winter is a dusting. We've had sub freezing temperatures for highs everyday except one for 3 weeks now along the Ar/Mo border. This morning my digital weather station showed a low of 0.9 degrees! All trhis bitter cold and no snow is getting old.

Alright amawea ... I'm with you! I'll be cheering on snow for north Arkansas.

I didn't realize that y'all have not seen much snow this winter. Given the cold pattern and your location, one would think otherwise. Very interesting. IIRC, the storms that really plaster your area are the ones that cut up to the Great Lakes and put you on the backside of the low.

[wxman22]

Heres my early forecast of areas that COULD possibly see wintry precip of course I know its too early and the models will likely change (flip flop) over the next week...



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

These were wxman57 thoughts in reply to a poster on the "local Forum" regarding the system this week. I'm sure that wxman57 won't mind and I'll bet he'll be posting here during the upcoming week...

I think going out on a limb would be forecasting just the opposite - that we will get snow out of the setup. It's very hard to get snow in Houston.

The event is still 5 days off, so we can't be 100% sure what will happen, that's true. But just because we can never be 100% sure of a 5 day forecast doesn't mean we can't identify a pattern favorable or unfavorable for frozen precipitation this far out. Models indicate that we'll see very strong warm air advection starting around Wednesday. I'm talking southerly winds just above the surface of 40kts or more as the upper low approaches. Most certainly, this would preclude any winter precip here as the low approaches.

The one chance for winter precip would on the beneath and behind the cold upper low. Current indications are that the upper low won't have enough cold air associated with it to bring snow this far south. Current model guidance even indicates it may be too warm aloft in north Texas for snow, but I think there's a fair chance that north Texas east through Arkansas could get a swath of winter precip out of this. Maybe farther north into Oklahoma. The farther east (of Texas) the storm gets, the more cold air it will entrain, so the snow line drops farther south.

So chances are we'll get cold rain starting Wednesday night with heavier showers and maybe a thunderstorm on Friday morning as the upper low axis approaches and the low forms off the mid TX coast. With these types of lows, the precip generally shuts down fairly quickly after the low axis passes east of Houston. I just don't see enough cold air advection in its wake to give us anything but lighter cold rain as it exits the area - yet. I'm not ready to rule out the chance of any sleet/snow as the upper low passes. Could be colder air aloft and more wrap-around moisture than is being forecast by the models.

[mysterymachinebl]

Weird how San Antonio Austin NWS mentions snow or sleet, but DFW NWS mentioned nothing but heavy rainfall. I don't see why they wouldn't even mention the possibility of it since some of the models have been showing it.

Just my personal opinion, but after years of reading FW NWS AFDs, I almost think of them as the "anti-winter weather" forecast office. For whatever reason, they just seem to me to be reluctant to bite on winter weather events until they are at the doorstep.

In fact, living a mere 5 miles from Oklahoma, I read OKC NWS AFDs faithfully and find them to be a little more willing to discuss what could happen.

Not saying FW isn't accurate, but they just seem hesitant to even discuss winter weather.

But perhaps I am biased. After all, look at my moniker to see MY feelings about winter weather!

I am glad you said this because I thought it was just me. I have noticed them being that way too.

[wxman22]

Heres the 12z GFS:

[iorange55]

This has the chance to be two very frustrating weekends back to back. That is if you want snow.

[amawea]

I want to see you get some snow Portastorm, but I would like to see a little more northward forecast on this as I want some snow in north Arkansas! All we've had so far this winter is a dusting. We've had sub freezing temperatures for highs everyday except one for 3 weeks now along the Ar/Mo border. This morning my digital weather station showed a low of 0.9 degrees! All trhis bitter cold and no snow is getting old.

Alright amawea ... I'm with you! I'll be cheering on snow for north Arkansas.

I didn't realize that y'all have not seen much snow this winter. Given the cold pattern and your location, one would think otherwise. Very interesting. IIRC, the storms that really plaster your area are the ones that cut up to the Great Lakes and put you on the backside of the low.

The good snows have been to our northwest by a 150 miles or so this year. The snow last week just missed us by 80 miles. Hmm! I must not be living right or something.