Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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SaskatchewanScreamer

#1161 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Sat Jan 09, 2010 11:06 am

Sent my husband to buy a bag of Texas oranges and grapefruit today (I have a feeling we will be buying the frozen concentrate for awhile after this).
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1162 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Jan 09, 2010 11:41 pm

NWS Mobile calling for a low of 10 in in crestview, FL on monday morning...10 anwwhere in the state of Florida is pretty amazing.
Other areas of interests Monday morning for lows...

Moss Point, MS 12...if that happens that would be the coldest I have seen it since the 80s. We saw single digits there with one of the 80's cold outbreaks, and low 14 i believe in 1996.

Dauphin Island, AL, 20...dont think i have ever seen a low that low forecasted for the island.

Mobile, AL 15

Biloxi MS 20 (thats in the city, which is more or less the beach, so thats pretty cold)
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1163 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Jan 10, 2010 12:30 pm

well, this morning they appear to have raised the monday morning temps a few degrees across the board for the above mentioned gulf coast locations. Still cold.

As cold as this was though, and long in duration, and how far through south Florida the cold got, it was kind of over due, and it still wasnt as cold as it could have been, nor as cold as 1996, 1989, 1983, or 1977. Lesser known cold waves have brought colder to localized parts of the south. Tallahassee hasnt gotten to 12 yet, and that happened back in 2003. 2003 was the cold wave that caused snow flurries on daytona beach from "ocean effect"...I also remember quite a few nights in a row around January 2001 with lows in the teens in Tallahassee. Perhaps everybody in the south got cold with these, but it was short lived? They have flirted with upper teens in Tallahassee for over a week now. I can recall a low of 8 in Hattiesburg Mississippi at some point in the early 90's. I also recall not just the February 1996 outbreak, but the December 1996 one, which brought snow to Mobile, and lows in the mid teens. 1994 had a less remembered cold snap also that got it pretty cold in south Florida. In any case, I guess much depends on where and for how long the high settles and how much air broke off and moved south.

Most of the above mentioned cold waves brought brutally cold temps to the midwest, but I havent heard of any all that out the ordinary....it was cold up there to be sure, I heard -31 in SD...but no -60 readings out of Minnesota.

My point is I guess, is that while this was a record breaker and news maker for many reasons, when put in perspective, it was just a cold spell that was due.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1164 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:32 pm

PTPatrick wrote:well, this morning they appear to have raised the monday morning temps a few degrees across the board for the above mentioned gulf coast locations. Still cold.

As cold as this was though, and long in duration, and how far through south Florida the cold got, it was kind of over due, and it still wasnt as cold as it could have been, nor as cold as 1996, 1989, 1983, or 1977. Lesser known cold waves have brought colder to localized parts of the south. Tallahassee hasnt gotten to 12 yet, and that happened back in 2003. 2003 was the cold wave that caused snow flurries on daytona beach from "ocean effect"...I also remember quite a few nights in a row around January 2001 with lows in the teens in Tallahassee. Perhaps everybody in the south got cold with these, but it was short lived? They have flirted with upper teens in Tallahassee for over a week now. I can recall a low of 8 in Hattiesburg Mississippi at some point in the early 90's. I also recall not just the February 1996 outbreak, but the December 1996 one, which brought snow to Mobile, and lows in the mid teens. 1994 had a less remembered cold snap also that got it pretty cold in south Florida. In any case, I guess much depends on where and for how long the high settles and how much air broke off and moved south.

Most of the above mentioned cold waves brought brutally cold temps to the midwest, but I havent heard of any all that out the ordinary....it was cold up there to be sure, I heard -31 in SD...but no -60 readings out of Minnesota.

My point is I guess, is that while this was a record breaker and news maker for many reasons, when put in perspective, it was just a cold spell that was due.

I guess that depends on perspective. We have been colder for lows than we have been in 20 years, but not as sustained in duration with the cold, since we rose above freezing yesterday after about 36 hours below freezing. Due? Overdue? I personally don't like to use those terms with weather, as Mother Nature will due as she sees fit to balance things out in her favor no matter what time of year it is.
Been watching the models with interest re: next Fri./Sat. and as we all know it is basically a foregone conclusion we are going to have one heck of a storm along the GOM/deep South. The question continues to be the temps involved with this both before and after the "center" passes our area. Still some cold core showing up in the model runs. My thinking is we will probably end up with a severe event with very heavy rains which MAY end up as a heavy winter precip event due to wrap around(track is very important for this scenario). I am thinking that as usual some of the models are having trouble with the cold considering how all over the place they have been with the temps. Yet we do see cold core indications with each run. As wxman57 I see some resemblance to the '93 "perfect storm". Not saying that is what we will get but it sure brings up those thoughts. Next 48-60 hours should be very telling with the models. I'm definitely "staying tuned" and so should everyone else, especially in the deep south. JMHO.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1165 Postby artist » Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:37 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:well, this morning they appear to have raised the monday morning temps a few degrees across the board for the above mentioned gulf coast locations. Still cold.

As cold as this was though, and long in duration, and how far through south Florida the cold got, it was kind of over due, and it still wasnt as cold as it could have been, nor as cold as 1996, 1989, 1983, or 1977. Lesser known cold waves have brought colder to localized parts of the south. Tallahassee hasnt gotten to 12 yet, and that happened back in 2003. 2003 was the cold wave that caused snow flurries on daytona beach from "ocean effect"...I also remember quite a few nights in a row around January 2001 with lows in the teens in Tallahassee. Perhaps everybody in the south got cold with these, but it was short lived? They have flirted with upper teens in Tallahassee for over a week now. I can recall a low of 8 in Hattiesburg Mississippi at some point in the early 90's. I also recall not just the February 1996 outbreak, but the December 1996 one, which brought snow to Mobile, and lows in the mid teens. 1994 had a less remembered cold snap also that got it pretty cold in south Florida. In any case, I guess much depends on where and for how long the high settles and how much air broke off and moved south.

Most of the above mentioned cold waves brought brutally cold temps to the midwest, but I havent heard of any all that out the ordinary....it was cold up there to be sure, I heard -31 in SD...but no -60 readings out of Minnesota.

My point is I guess, is that while this was a record breaker and news maker for many reasons, when put in perspective, it was just a cold spell that was due.

I guess that depends on perspective. We have been colder for lows than we have been in 20 years, but not as sustained in duration with the cold, since we rose above freezing yesterday after about 36 hours below freezing. Due? Overdue? I personally don't like to use those terms with weather, as Mother Nature will due as she sees fit to balance things out in her favor no matter what time of year it is.
Been watching the models with interest re: next Fri./Sat. and as we all know it is basically a foregone conclusion we are going to have one heck of a storm along the GOM/deep South. The question continues to be the temps involved with this both before and after the "center" passes our area. Still some cold core showing up in the model runs. My thinking is we will probably end up with a severe event with very heavy rains which MAY end up as a heavy winter precip event due to wrap around(track is very important for this scenario). I am thinking that as usual some of the models are having trouble with the cold considering how all over the place they have been with the temps. Yet we do see cold core indications with each run. As wxman57 I see some resemblance to the '93 "perfect storm". Not saying that is what we will get but it sure brings up those thoughts. Next 48-60 hours should be very telling with the models. I'm definitely "staying tuned" and so should everyone else, especially in the deep south. JMHO.


Could this eventually make it to Florida if indeed it comes together?
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1166 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jan 10, 2010 1:48 pm

artist wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:well, this morning they appear to have raised the monday morning temps a few degrees across the board for the above mentioned gulf coast locations. Still cold.

As cold as this was though, and long in duration, and how far through south Florida the cold got, it was kind of over due, and it still wasnt as cold as it could have been, nor as cold as 1996, 1989, 1983, or 1977. Lesser known cold waves have brought colder to localized parts of the south. Tallahassee hasnt gotten to 12 yet, and that happened back in 2003. 2003 was the cold wave that caused snow flurries on daytona beach from "ocean effect"...I also remember quite a few nights in a row around January 2001 with lows in the teens in Tallahassee. Perhaps everybody in the south got cold with these, but it was short lived? They have flirted with upper teens in Tallahassee for over a week now. I can recall a low of 8 in Hattiesburg Mississippi at some point in the early 90's. I also recall not just the February 1996 outbreak, but the December 1996 one, which brought snow to Mobile, and lows in the mid teens. 1994 had a less remembered cold snap also that got it pretty cold in south Florida. In any case, I guess much depends on where and for how long the high settles and how much air broke off and moved south.

Most of the above mentioned cold waves brought brutally cold temps to the midwest, but I havent heard of any all that out the ordinary....it was cold up there to be sure, I heard -31 in SD...but no -60 readings out of Minnesota.

My point is I guess, is that while this was a record breaker and news maker for many reasons, when put in perspective, it was just a cold spell that was due.

I guess that depends on perspective. We have been colder for lows than we have been in 20 years, but not as sustained in duration with the cold, since we rose above freezing yesterday after about 36 hours below freezing. Due? Overdue? I personally don't like to use those terms with weather, as Mother Nature will due as she sees fit to balance things out in her favor no matter what time of year it is.
Been watching the models with interest re: next Fri./Sat. and as we all know it is basically a foregone conclusion we are going to have one heck of a storm along the GOM/deep South. The question continues to be the temps involved with this both before and after the "center" passes our area. Still some cold core showing up in the model runs. My thinking is we will probably end up with a severe event with very heavy rains which MAY end up as a heavy winter precip event due to wrap around(track is very important for this scenario). I am thinking that as usual some of the models are having trouble with the cold considering how all over the place they have been with the temps. Yet we do see cold core indications with each run. As wxman57 I see some resemblance to the '93 "perfect storm". Not saying that is what we will get but it sure brings up those thoughts. Next 48-60 hours should be very telling with the models. I'm definitely "staying tuned" and so should everyone else, especially in the deep south. JMHO.


Could this eventually make it to Florida if indeed it comes together?

In short, yes it is possible that it could affect FL., but it will probably not be winter precip type unless there is some wrap around into the panhandle area. Here is what wxman57 has to say about it:
This system is really getting my attention - but not for its impact here. This potential storm sort of reminds me of what the models predicted back in March of 1993, the "Storm of the Century". But we'll be on the back side of this developing storm. The really bad weather would be out in the Gulf and east of Houston. In 1993, such a low produced a massive squall line in the Gulf that eventually hit Florida with 100kt wind gusts, not to mention the near hurricane-force winds around the low center offshore. North of the low, a band of heavy snow blanketed the Gulf Coast states.

Will something similar happen this time? Could be. But it does appear that the air along the Gulf Coast will be too warm to support anything but rain. Maybe from NE TX across Arkansas and eastward we could see some heavy snow. Possibly farther south east of Texas. Too early to be sure. Sure looks amazing on the models next Fri/Sat.
When he is saying "here" he is meaning the Houston/SE TX area. I am not saying that it will be just like the "Storm of the Century", nor do I think he is, but it sure has my attention and everyone along the GOM and in the Deep South needs to be following this system closely as it develops. It indeed looks very impressive in the models, winter precip or not.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1167 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:01 pm

I was hesitant to throw out the comparison to 1993 last night because around here it was the worst storm ever(feet of snow, no power for a week, state shutdown for days, it wasn't really "fun" like most snow here is), but I do see some similarities. I also see a lot of differences though, It does look a lot warmer and 1993 was a triple phaser which this is not with the three jet streams all colliding. No doubt it looks awfully windy and messy though with severe weather for FL(just like in 93). 1993's setup however truly was epic and I doubt we ever see it again in our lives.

1993:

Image

This storm:

Image

1993 looked a lot more like a major hurricane(actually had a pressure near 960 at point which is equal to a low-end Cat 3). Not even in the same ballpark.

FFC is already mentioning heavy rain and wind for next Saturday which I've never seen so far out before:

Saturday...Showers likely. Windy. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1168 Postby baygirl_1 » Sun Jan 10, 2010 4:11 pm

I was wondering what they were alluding to in the Mobile NWS Forecast Discussion from this morning:
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST PAST
THE REGION, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND AS POPS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW WILL
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF PER THE CALCULATIONS OF GFS WHICH
CONTINUES TO SHOW INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TRACKING
EAST- NORTHEAST. HOWEVER IT TRACKS NOW INTO LOWER ALABAMA. THE WELL
PERFORMING EUROPEAN MODEL IS ALSO MORE INTENSE THAN YESTERDAY BUT
REMAINS LESS SO THAN THE GFS, WITH A TRACK MORE TO OUR SOUTH. THE RAW
500 MB PROG AND THE WAVENUMBER 5 PROG SHOW POSITIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
FEATURE WITH VERY ROBUST DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE ADVECTION OF ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY WITH HEIGHT, LEADING TO RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS
REFLECTED IN THE OUTPUT. NEEDLESS TO SAY IT WILL BE INTERESTING.
CONTINUING CLOSE WATCH ON ALL MODEL OUTPUTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

It sounded like something big was possibly coming together, but I'm still not fluent in "meteorology-ese." I remember that March '93 storm. It was my brother-in-law's 50th birthday party weekend and his kids got stuck in Birmingham. The storm's winds toppled a tree in our back yard. Then, we got sleet, ice, and some snow! It was a very memorable birthday party since we were all huddled together inside trying to stay warm! Hope this isn't like that! But, as always, watching...
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1169 Postby cajungal » Sun Jan 10, 2010 4:57 pm

I should be able to remember March 1993 I was 16 years old, but I don't remember it much! I think we had some ice/sleet here, but that is all I can remember.
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#1170 Postby shah8 » Sun Jan 10, 2010 5:06 pm

You weren't in Atlanta with whiteout conditions and lightning flashing and 4ft snowdrifts. I remember it and I was 12.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1171 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Jan 10, 2010 6:53 pm

I recall being stuck on a school trip to atlanta for the march 1993 blizzard and having to stay an extra day...it was miserable. The hotel had to double us up to accommodate stranded travelers and workers and stuff. 8 sixth grade boys to a standard 2 double bed hotel room...it was crazy. I remember it vividly though. I had only seen snow lay on the ground once before that and had never seen drifting like that.
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Re:

#1172 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 10, 2010 7:20 pm

shah8 wrote:You weren't in Atlanta with whiteout conditions and lightning flashing and 4ft snowdrifts. I remember it and I was 12.


I lived about an hour west of Atlanta and was only 4 at the time. All I remember was the 4ft snowdrifts. Really sad I can't remember more. I think to ever see a storm like that again I'll have to be somewhere up north.

This storm looks like a winter tropical storm to me, tons of rain and tons of wind. Flooding and severe weather will be big concerns IMO. At this time the potential for wintry weather looks very small(and the only chance would be flurries on the backside as the storm is leaving and pulls down cold air). Bears watching though, this is going to be a potent storm either way(as mentioned though, 1993 was like a Cat 3 hurricane).
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1173 Postby MGC » Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:53 pm

The 1993 superstorm also produced a significant storm surge in Apalchee Bay. It was like a hurricane in March......MGC
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1174 Postby attallaman » Mon Jan 11, 2010 3:07 am

MGC wrote:The 1993 superstorm also produced a significant storm surge in Apalchee Bay. It was like a hurricane in March......MGC
Are you stayin' warm over there at Hurricane Gulch MGC, LOL? I'm sippin' on some warm Piggly Wiggly egg nog tonight for you. Stay warm now you hear.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1175 Postby nikki9067 » Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:01 am

whats this storm looking like now for atlanta, only rain?
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1176 Postby fwbbreeze » Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:27 am

The NWS showed a low of 12 degrees last night in Crestview, FL at Bob Sikes Airport.....bring on SPRING!!!
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#1177 Postby jcool » Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:40 am

fwbbreeze...I'm ready for Spring too...16 degrees at my house last night.
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Re:

#1178 Postby timNms » Mon Jan 11, 2010 1:07 pm

jcool wrote:fwbbreeze...I'm ready for Spring too...16 degrees at my house last night.


We had a low temp of 13 this morning. It was 14 the two previous mornings. Now it's a balmy 42. The ground was still frozen under my house about an hour ago...how do I know that, you might ask? I had to repair a broken water line. Seems the folks that built our house about 14 yrs ago used cheap glue. The cold caused the glue to let go on the cold water line to the washing machine. Thankfully all that got wet was a couple of floor joists LOL.
I think it's bout time to break out the flip flops and bermuda shorts :lol:
Personally, I'm looking forward to 90's again!
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Re: Re:

#1179 Postby TideJoe » Mon Jan 11, 2010 1:53 pm

timNms wrote:
jcool wrote:fwbbreeze...I'm ready for Spring too...16 degrees at my house last night.


We had a low temp of 13 this morning. It was 14 the two previous mornings. Now it's a balmy 42. The ground was still frozen under my house about an hour ago...how do I know that, you might ask? I had to repair a broken water line. Seems the folks that built our house about 14 yrs ago used cheap glue. The cold caused the glue to let go on the cold water line to the washing machine. Thankfully all that got wet was a couple of floor joists LOL.
I think it's bout time to break out the flip flops and bermuda shorts :lol:
Personally, I'm looking forward to 90's again!


Me too. I hate cold weather. That's why I live in the south. Snow once a year is more than enough for me and now I'm ready for the warm weather to return.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1180 Postby mitchelliii » Mon Jan 11, 2010 2:19 pm

Big winter (wet) storms like the one coming are the problem for Georgia. We are usually on the line where it turns frosty so we get ice and not as much snow. This was the case in 93 also. This time however, the ground may be warm enough to prevent as much ice as the storm then. Still too early to know, but time will tell. I still feel like we are in for a larger even than we have seen so far this season. Stay warm all!
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