Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

Again this resembles very much like the December\early January pattern only we are in mid to late winter which usually means colder.

Thats what I said Wednesday? pattern is returning to a Dec/early Jan likenss....and I love it

Also looking at a much more active southern jet this time around, you can follow the lows as they come across the Pacific then drop down into southern cali then across.
Gut feeling that Feb has something instore for NTX, still think it's going to be a nasty ice storm, rather than a snow event.

Between Feb 11th and 14th......

[Ntxw]

The problem might again be too cold for snow sigh.

[Portastorm]

The problem might again be too cold for snow sigh.

Don't despair Ntxw ... the 12z GFS run is significantly colder than the 0z run. I would even call it a dramatic departure from the previous run. I'm not certain it'll be that cold. Furthermore I wouldn't trust the GFS to get the details right this far out. I think we're still in the mode of looking at the general patterns and trends. The details on short waves and the deeper lows and troughs are sketchy at best until we get to about five days out and closer.

I do think it is safe to say that we'll see a return to more normal "seasonal" (Jason's favorite winter weather term!) temps by early next week. And by late next week, we're going to see a significant cold front like txagwxman has said.

[Ntxw]

You're right Portastorm, must say I do like the looks of the Canadian and EC on the sw low.

[Portastorm]

You're right Portastorm, must say I do like the looks of the Canadian and EC on the sw low.

Yeah they're definitely slower with the low, aren't they? But they also look a bit warmer than the GFS. Why can't we have the cold AND the precip!!

Should be a fun weekend of watching how the GFS, Euro, and CMC opine on the storm. Hope we can get the winter weather fans excited with some real potential threats and increase the traffic. The sound of the crickets is deafening!

[attallaman]

I certainly like the nice weather of this week compared to last week. I can go - and enjoy- outside again. As far as I'm concerned, the arctic air can stay bottled-up until next season. I've had enough for one year, thank you

Have you started replacing any of your tropicals or was that someone else from the Texas group who lost all of their tropicals? I'll have to say my sagos made it fine. Are we forecasted to get another blast of arctic air possibly next month or is the deep freeze threat for the deep south pretty much gone? I hope so but I still would like to see some snow.

[southerngale]

Indeed it is, Portastorm. Play

[attallaman]

I like cold weather, and we've certainly had our fair share of it so far. This warm-up is nice... it feels absolutely fantastic outside!

I'd still like another winter wonderland, but the bitter cold can stay up north, where it belongs. My order is for cold enough to snow, and cold enough for it to stick around a few days.

I'll second that order.

[Portastorm]

Indeed it is, Portastorm. Play

Classic southerngale ... what a way to end the work week. Thanks for the good laugh.

[jasons2k]

I do think it is safe to say that we'll see a return to more normal "seasonal" (Jason's favorite winter weather term!) temps by early next week. [/color][/b]has said.

LOL.

Oh, and I would call today "unseasonably" warm. Hehe...

[jasons2k]

I certainly like the nice weather of this week compared to last week. I can go - and enjoy- outside again. As far as I'm concerned, the arctic air can stay bottled-up until next season. I've had enough for one year, thank you

Have you started replacing any of your tropicals or was that someone else from the Texas group who lost all of their tropicals? I'll have to say my sagos made it fine. Are we forecasted to get another blast of arctic air possibly next month or is the deep freeze threat for the deep south pretty much gone? I hope so but I still would like to see some snow.

I think my Majesty palms survived - amazingly. I had them completely wrapped and had two 30,000 btu propane heaters aiming at the two biggest ones. I think even my two pygmy dates survived too. They all have the dreaded fungus on them, but I sprayed the spears/crowns of all of them with a copper fungicide.

I did lose (at least down to stems or roots) all of my hibiscus and Hawaiian tis. But those are cheap. I'll cut back and/or replace this spring.

Some surpises were that my orange tree and mini bird of paradise survived with just a cover. I thought for sure they would be toast. The queens have leaf burn but I don't see any that were defoliated or killed. And yet on the other extreme the Mexican fan palms are pretty bronzed. I didn't think it got cold enough to do that, but apparently it did.

[srainhoutx]

Indeed it is, Portastorm. Play

Too much SG...Thanks for the laugh after a tough week.

[txagwxman]

Looks like another hard freeze likely for SE TX next weekend...still 7 days out though...but things are lining up...I wouldn't be surprised to see Conroe near 20F again, IAH 26F.
I will take Tomball to 22F...we will see...ECMWF still not lined up, and the models may back off some, but I just like the pattern. If that trough over the moves fast enough East, then the cold cold air will plunge down the Rockies into Texas.

See what the overnight runs do.

[Ntxw]

Looks like another hard freeze likely for SE TX next weekend...still 7 days out though...but things are lining up...I wouldn't be surprised to see Conroe near 20F again, IAH 26F.
I will take Tomball to 22F...we will see...ECMWF still not lined up, and the models may back off some, but I just like the pattern. If that trough over the moves fast enough East, then the cold cold air will plunge down the Rockies into Texas.

See what the overnight runs do.

I think based on raw numbers that would be true, but it would take a stepping down process to get that cold. If not that one the next few following it should have enough snow cover and cold air already in place to get to those numbers.

[Portastorm]

You folks in North Texas should be licking your chops over the 0z Euro run.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Meanwhile, one thing is evident after looking over the 0z GFS run. The southern jet is going to remain strong, close by, AND active. This is a little different from what we saw in December and early January. Should make things VERY interesting starting next week and beyond. I like the trend!

[txagwxman]

Looks like another hard freeze likely for SE TX next weekend...still 7 days out though...but things are lining up...I wouldn't be surprised to see Conroe near 20F again, IAH 26F.
I will take Tomball to 22F...we will see...ECMWF still not lined up, and the models may back off some, but I just like the pattern. If that trough over the moves fast enough East, then the cold cold air will plunge down the Rockies into Texas.

See what the overnight runs do.

2nd trough coming into CA may screw this forecast up for next Saturday...but GFS still going 20s, so I am going to hang onto the forecast even though the ECMWF still hasn't bitten at it (at all). If the GFS is right fresh snow cover will be laid from Tex Panhandle through OKC next weekend...have to wait for more 12z runs to come out. Like I said the models are going to flip-flop.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like another hard freeze likely for SE TX next weekend...still 7 days out though...but things are lining up...I wouldn't be surprised to see Conroe near 20F again, IAH 26F.
I will take Tomball to 22F...we will see...ECMWF still not lined up, and the models may back off some, but I just like the pattern. If that trough over the moves fast enough East, then the cold cold air will plunge down the Rockies into Texas.

See what the overnight runs do.

2nd trough coming into CA may screw this forecast up for next Saturday...but GFS still going 20s, so I am going to hang onto the forecast even though the ECMWF still hasn't bitten at it (at all). If the GFS is right fresh snow cover will be laid from Tex Panhandle through OKC next weekend...have to wait for more 12z runs to come out. Like I said the models are going to flip-flop.

At least you made a forecast. I agree the the ECMWF is just not bitting right now. I am looking forward to the upgrade of that model (ECMWF) due on January 26th. That should make for some interesting model runs for the rest of the year in regards to winter as well as tropical output.

[txagwxman]

Going to be a pain forecasting with this active subtropical jet. If ECMWF right we could see a severe weather outbreak on Thu night for Houston.

[txagwxman]

Looks like another hard freeze likely for SE TX next weekend...still 7 days out though...but things are lining up...I wouldn't be surprised to see Conroe near 20F again, IAH 26F.
I will take Tomball to 22F...we will see...ECMWF still not lined up, and the models may back off some, but I just like the pattern. If that trough over the moves fast enough East, then the cold cold air will plunge down the Rockies into Texas.

See what the overnight runs do.

2nd trough coming into CA may screw this forecast up for next Saturday...but GFS still going 20s, so I am going to hang onto the forecast even though the ECMWF still hasn't bitten at it (at all). If the GFS is right fresh snow cover will be laid from Tex Panhandle through OKC next weekend...have to wait for more 12z runs to come out. Like I said the models are going to flip-flop.

At least you made a forecast. I agree the the ECMWF is just not bitting right now. I am looking forward to the upgrade of that model (ECMWF) due on January 26th. That should make for some interesting model runs for the rest of the year in regards to winter as well as tropical output.

Are they increasing the resolution? If I remember it was at T799 already. I thought they upgraded it in Sept 2009. Just found it...t1279=16.5KM global run. GEEZ. GFS = T384 still.

I am not a big fan of higher resolution changes...could see some whacky runs from this new ECMWF.

[srainhoutx]

I agree and part of the reason I brought it up. Sometimes the "new and improved" is not so much of a help and just creates more model mayhem. I also agree that we may have some severe potential as well with the Thursday/Friday system. Here is the link for those interested in the ECMWF changes ahead...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/h ... tion_2009/