Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Texas Snowman]

Want to see some winter?

Check out the two I-40 Tx Dot cams west of Amarillo at Guhldkey (sp?) and Vega. No traffic, lots of snow, and looking very, very winterlike!

Might help to paste the link:

http://amaits.dot.state.tx.us/AMA-ITS/default.htm

[Ntxw]

I would think those winter weather advisory's are about to be extended southeast.

I don't think FW will even if it plays out as the NAM says. They are pretty adamant about it. It's not like this was the first run to show it. They are set on freezing drizzle!

[Weatherdude20]

I would think those winter weather advisory's are about to be extended southeast.

I don't think FW will even if it plays out as the NAM says. They are pretty adamant about it. It's not like this was the first run to show it. They are set on freezing drizzle!

Dude its sleeting in fw right now

[Ntxw]

I would think those winter weather advisory's are about to be extended southeast.

I don't think FW will even if it plays out as the NAM says. They are pretty adamant about it. It's not like this was the first run to show it. They are set on freezing drizzle!

Dude its sleeting in fw right now

Yeah i'm just saying FW NWS sounds pretty firm and standing their ground lol. I'm sure we'll get a surprise. They like their drizzle

[jasons2k]

You know, sometimes I think I prefer the good old days like when I was a kid and got interested in meterology in the first place.

There would be a rumor of snow, ice, or freezing rain possibilities, then a few days of excited wondering, and then going to bed the night of the event...and then waking up VERY early to look out the window and see what actually happened.

Or not.

But not anymore.

Not with guys like wxman57 around to destroy ever winter weather hope and dream I have with each new model run that comes out!!! Phooey on that - I hate the models sometimes!

JK and LOL

Great job as usual wxman57!

I know how you feel...and I used to love those days too.

I guess over time I just got burned one too many times getting all excited over nothing. After all, let's face it, we do live in Texas and winter events just aren't that common. I think there were just too many times of me getting all hyped-up, holding out hope, staring at the thermometer, and then only to wake-up to drizzle and 35 degrees. Call me jaded....I prefer "realist"...but that's just my view on it now.

So, my mindset has changed since my college days in Lubbock of salivating over the 6-10 day NCEP precip/temp maps (that's about all we had back then to get excited over beyond 5 days).

I prefer now to stick to the analysis and the facts, and hold back my enthusiasm for when it appears there really will be snow/winter precip. Then odds are better my excitement actually gets rewarded.

What good is a nice plate of steak and lobster steaming in front of you if can't take a bite? Sooner or later, someone whisking that plate away and replacing it with cold oatmeal 9 out of 10 times just wears on you.

I'm not saying it's right/wrong...that's just how I feel about it now.

[Ntxw]

I can concur to that. But nowadays that I'm older I have to sleep . The ups and downs of the models fills in that void I guess because as you said, winter events in Texas are just not plentiful so the craziness within the models shows what it could be like which to an extent satisfying. That's part of the fun for me having the build up, then finally something big happens and I get to see how it plays out as it did the many times before on paper. It's just one day I'll be preferring weather like they do in Florida (god forbid) but I just know it's coming, enjoying it now.

[jasons2k]

Warmer still GFS output for Houston:

[HockeyTx82]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1001 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED EASTWARD...

TXZ093-103-117-300000-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100130T0000Z/
GRAYSON-DENTON-PARKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...DENTON...
LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR
1001 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM CST THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN...TO SLEET AND SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 6 PM.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS WHERE
ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP...TRAVEL WITH CAUTION.

[iorange55]

So 30 miles south of Denton in Dallas I wonder if we'll see any snow? I hope so. I'll be on the lookout it's 35 here, so not too much further to drop for it to stick, if it does start.

[Weatherdude20]

Its 30 here, ice slowly forming on surfaces, sleet, mixed with rain, and a few flakes... becoming exicting!

[ludosc]

I am about a mile west of downtown Ft. Worth...weatherunderground says it's 32.4 degrees outside, so its getting cold enough, but looking at the radar it seems like the precipitation is moving off to the east. Is there more expected to develop or is this it? I find the 1-2 inches of sleet hard to believe if there's not more coming...

[iorange55]

I am about a mile west of downtown Ft. Worth...weatherunderground says it's 32.4 degrees outside, so its getting cold enough, but looking at the radar it seems like the precipitation is moving off to the east. Is there more expected to develop or is this it? I find the 1-2 inches of sleet hard to believe if there's not more coming...

Yes a disturbance is supposed to move in early in the afternoon, so we'll see. By then it'll be cold enough here least on the surface. Weatherbug says 35, but temp outside on patio says 32.

[wxman57]

I am about a mile west of downtown Ft. Worth...weatherunderground says it's 32.4 degrees outside, so its getting cold enough, but looking at the radar it seems like the precipitation is moving off to the east. Is there more expected to develop or is this it? I find the 1-2 inches of sleet hard to believe if there's not more coming...

What you're seeing in radar is the end of the precip. The models always did forecast post-frontal precip, but they indicated that the precip would end near the time that temps at the surface and a few thousand feet up dropped below 32F. And that's what's happening. Just as it's getting cold enough for sleet/snow, the moisture is moving out.

[iorange55]

I am about a mile west of downtown Ft. Worth...weatherunderground says it's 32.4 degrees outside, so its getting cold enough, but looking at the radar it seems like the precipitation is moving off to the east. Is there more expected to develop or is this it? I find the 1-2 inches of sleet hard to believe if there's not more coming...

What you're seeing in radar is the end of the precip. The models always did forecast post-frontal precip, but they indicated that the precip would end near the time that temps at the surface and a few thousand feet up dropped below 32F. And that's what's happening. Just as it's getting cold enough for sleet/snow, the moisture is moving out.

NWS quote out of Forth Worth

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN...TO SLEET AND SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 6 PM.

[Weatherdude20]

Yeah, as the low pressure system progresses eastward towrds us, and since we have decent lift, that will create more snow/sleet bands as we approach the afternoon.

BTW: Just went outside, about 40% sleet now, and the rain thats falling is freezing its currently 30.6 with freezing rain coming down at a good clip...

[wxman57]

Warmer still GFS output for Houston:

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/5130/0 ... iahpng.png

Nice graphic, Jason!

I wouldn't consider a high in the mid (or upper 40s) warm here in Houston, though. I was looking forward to getting out on my bike this weekend, but I'm not even going to go outside with weather that cold!

[Ntxw]

NWS quote out of Forth Worth

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN...TO SLEET AND SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 6 PM.

[/quote]

I think one to two inches is over doing it, maybe in areas far north and west where the transition already has occured. A dusting at most is my opinion.

[iorange55]

I don't think it'll be much of anything either, but we'll have to wait, and see what the radar lights up with. Obviously they're seeing something.

[Ntxw]

There is still a lot of wet streets as the temps are hovering right above freezing. Hopefully the dry wind can kick in before it dips to 30 or below or there could be problems with this evening's commute.

Edit: A question for Wxman, what are your thoughts on next week's storm (i'm looking at later next week for about the same period). Do you think colder air will be involved?

[iorange55]

Guess that map makes more sense their winter weather advisory was a little beefed up on wording.