Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

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RNGR
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1321 Postby RNGR » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:09 am

you guys really should watch the thickness values more than 850 temps.. 12z NAM = very little if any snow for the gulf coast.

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#1322 Postby RNGR » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:15 am

Now say 15 miles inland thats different. looks like about 4 inches.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1323 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:19 am

12z Nam Precip type

Image
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#1324 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:26 am

Snippet concerning the thicknesses...from Mobile/Pensacola area


IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY EITHER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR A
POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WARNING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

NOTE...IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW VERIFIES A LITTLE MORE SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...COLDER AIR AND CRITICAL COLD SEASON
THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY BE PULLED MORE SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1325 Postby Sabanic » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:27 am

Ivanhater wrote:12z Nam Precip type

Image


Now that would be awesome!
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Re:

#1326 Postby RNGR » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:29 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:Snippet concerning the thicknesses...from Mobile/Pensacola area


IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY EITHER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR A
POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WARNING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

NOTE...IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW VERIFIES A LITTLE MORE SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...COLDER AIR AND CRITICAL COLD SEASON
THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY BE PULLED MORE SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW.


thats true but we have discussed how southerly tracks like the one the GFS has been showing are most likely not going to happen. NAM looks about the farthest south the low would track imo
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#1327 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:30 am

Well one thing is for sure, this seems to be our best chance in quite some time to see snow ( just north of I10 in Santa Rosa county) We'll see how it all unfolds.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1328 Postby Jag95 » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:37 am

RNGR wrote:you guys really should watch the thickness values more than 850 temps.. 12z NAM = very little if any snow for the gulf coast.

Image



Many of the discussions talk about a great setup for evaporational cooling, with heavy precip falling through a relatively dry layer. I was skeptical about the last snow forecast in December and thought sleet at best, but this setup looks better. Nevertheless, it'll still be a close call for the immediate coast, IMO.
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#1329 Postby IvanSurvivor » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:52 am

If someone was driving from Pensacola to Baton Rouge and planned on going Friday is that going to be safe? If they left on Thursday, what would be the latest you would leave the Pensacola area heading west?
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1330 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:54 am

Even the 12z GFS brings the Freeze line all the way to the coast...the trend is going in the right direction for the Gulfcoast :eek:

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#1331 Postby RNGR » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:54 am

12z GFS a tiny bit N of 06z and wetter
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1332 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:20 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
540 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-110600-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
540 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY...

OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MUCH HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN REGARDS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO BE MORE CONSISTENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE TIMING FOR THIS EVENT REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE
FORECAST MODELS...AS FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TARGET DAY.
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE NOT ONLY THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS
OFFERED UP WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALSO...HOW FAR THE FREEZING LINE
WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTH.

AS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BEST FORECAST FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDORS
...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA. A
TRACE TO ONE-HALF INCH IS EXPECTED FROM TROY TO EUFAULA.

PLEASE BEGIN TO PLAN AHEAD ON HOW SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
AFFECT YOU AND YOUR FAMILY...BEFORE IT ACTUALLY FALLS.

CHECK BACK WITH US FREQUENTLY ON THIS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
FRIDAY. ON THE WEB...CHECK OUT OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
OUR MULTIMEDIA IMPACT BRIEFING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

$$
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1333 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:25 am

Look at the dump of cold air for the south on Mardi Gras day! If you thought the hard freezes were over for the gulf coast, think again.

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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1334 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:29 am

:eek:

Image

Friday...Colder. Chance of snow in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon. Light snow accumulations. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1335 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:34 am

80 percent chance of Snow for Pensacola..wow :double:

Thursday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then snow and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.



Friday: Snow and sleet. High near 42. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1336 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:48 am

12z Canadian continues the Snowstorm for the Gulfcoast

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#1337 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:57 am

It actually looks like Pensacola could have a legitimate chance at winter weather this go around. It is still very borderline, as it usually always is in Florida, but I think that a period of mixing or a changeover is definitely possible during the colder hours of the day.

Here is a look at the 12z model skew-t's for Friday morning in the western FL panhandle:

NAM:
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

GFS:
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

Both of the models show a period where a wintery mix is very possible, if not likely. They are not very good soundings for widespread accumulating winter precipitation, but even just a few snow flakes or sleet pellets reaching the surface would be pretty exciting for the sunshine state.

I am definitely rooting for you guys in Pensacola Ivanhater! I know you've been waiting for quite some time to see winter weather, and hopefully this will finally be your chance to see some. :)
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1338 Postby RNGR » Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:58 am

CMC also wants to make a nice snow storm out of monday's clipper system:

Image
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Rehttp://www.storm2: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2

#1339 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2010 12:01 pm

Thanks Extreme. If it is going to be cold, it might as well snow. It is certainly becoming the talk of the town today!
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1340 Postby Sabanic » Wed Feb 10, 2010 12:03 pm

Hey IH what do you think our chances here to your west are looking like? TV & Radio folks are saying nothing for the most part.

Thanks
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