Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[DFW Stormwatcher]

With a forecast high of 47 for friday, and no indication so far that there will be a major road icing event, i dont see why any school should be cancelled simply because a snow accumulation will occur.

upper 20s for Thurs night to Friday morning. It's not going to be 47 in the morning hours. With possible snow on the ground that number itself looks optimistic. I think at least there would be a 2 hour delay maybe.

Thank you, I was thinking the same thing. Things probably won't clear up until after noon, if that soon, if the amounts come as they are forecast to do.

[jeff]

Here's the lower part of a vertical temperature profile (RUC 21Z) centered on southwest Houston to show what's happening aloft. For those who can't read the chart, it shows snow falling from a height of 18,000 to 6000ft up. Below 6000 ft there is a warm layer which melts the snowflakes (they're delicate). Below about 3000 ft the raindrops (melted snow) hit a sub-freezing layer for a couple thousand feet. This freezes the raindrops into ice (sleet). The sleet falls through about 1000-2000 ft of above-freezing air, surviving to hit the ground. They're small because much of the sleet is melting off on the way down.

Now currently there is only a thin layer of above freezing temperatures aloft, with the exception of the very lowest layer that reaches the mid 40s. There's a slim chance that if the airmass modifies slightly between 3000-6000 ft and drops closer to freezing that a few snowflakes may make it to the ground, though somewhat melted. I think I MAY have seen 1-2 of these on my drive home, as the spot on my windshield looked more like slushy snow than sleet at least once.

Don't get your hope up (even slightly) that you'll awaken tomorrow to a snow-covered landscape (Houston area). That airmass aloft should WARM overnight, reducing the chances for sleet or snow. It's cold rain for us tomorrow, but you still COULD see a trace of sleet tomorrow night.

Note: Heights on the chart are very approximate

All IP in Fort Bend County...mixing with rain...very small pellets. 41/31 outside now versus 46/26 at onset.

[southerngale]

I've got a WWA way down here! I'm on the very southern edge of it, so not expecting much, but still... wow. I posted it in the SE TX thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=103738&p=1964728#p1964728

[Ntxw]

The Louisiana weather offices have been very aggressive with their watches and advisories, more so than Texas, even in areas further south where temps are in question (as opposed to FW thinking it's the problem way up here much further north.) Anyways, I hope you guys down there get a good winter wonderland out of this!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.accuweather.com/maps-satelli ... =1&large=0


Alot of moist air streaming into Tx, been watching this Radar all day and the thick line just continues to grow from the pacific coast of Mex

[DFW Stormwatcher]

The Louisiana weather offices have been very aggressive with their watches and advisories, more so than Texas, even in areas further south where temps are in question (as opposed to FW thinking it's the problem way up here much further north.) Anyways, I hope you guys down there get a good winter wonderland out of this!

No doubt, Shreveport has heavy snow in the forecast for tomorrow night. They are forecasting 3-6 inches. Much stronger wording than here.

[jasons2k]

So far just some light rain here...

[DentonGal]

Here are Larry Cosgrove's thoughts this evening.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... ry-11-2010

[gofrogs2]

What are the new models showing.

[Dustan78]

wow, it went silent in here again. What do you guys think about the morning commute in fort worth?

[katheria]

wow, it went silent in here again. What do you guys think about the morning commute in fort worth?

not bad going in....coming home another story...id say....

everyones probably looking at models, nam is running..

dinner time also

[iorange55]

0z Nam so far through 18hrs looks good.

[Ntxw]

0z Nam so far through 18hrs looks good.

It's noticeably wetter and the system is a bit north\open vs compact which is good so far if you want more precip.

[cwp419]

Looks like Austin is still in the game.

[iorange55]

looks really good!

[msstateguy83]

iam sorry but no doubt about it some areas are gonna go to winter storm warn criteria IMO

[katheria]

iam sorry but no doubt about it some areas are gonna go to winter storm warn criteria IMO

i agree ..


Nam does look wetter to my old eyes...

[iorange55]

Total precip through 30hrs

[Ntxw]

If so, it'll be areas right around the metroplex up to the red river based on this run.

[gofrogs2]

How much precip for the dfw area.