Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[cycloneye]

Yikes!! Take a look at how above normal are the sst anomalies in the MDR and Eastern Atlantic.If that stays as it is now,it will be a fuel to the parade of african waves that emerge that continent.This is the result of almost non-existant highs in the Atlantic thanks to the many big winter lows.

[gatorcane]

If you look at the anomalies in the Atlantic compared to last year at this time there is a significant difference. In fact the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean region are running warmer than 2004 and 2005 at this time, two very active years in recent past. Something to watch over the next several months especially if neutral conditions return as some of the models are forecasting.

Anomalies from this time last year (Feb. 19, 2009):


Anomalies currently:

[cycloneye]

You can see the difference between the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential in 2009 for Febuary 19 and this years graphic on the same date.More warmer TCHP this year.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

19th of Febuary,2009



19th of Febuary,2010

[cycloneye]

MDR looks balmy for this time of the year.Lets see in the comming weeks how the anomalies go more warmer or decrease.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

[Blown Away]

As cold as it has been here in SFL this El Nino winter it's amazing to see the MDR heating up! My thinking is this year we will see a CV monster become a problem for somebody in the E Caribbean and/or SE Conus! Hope not, but being in this active phase, 2010 analog years, warm MDR, and it's been quiet here in SFL for a few years, I feel SFL is due for a storm from the E.

[Macrocane]

Though it is still too early to tell, I agree about a Cape Verde "monster" that will cause problems to US, Carbbean or Central America. If you look at the seasons that follow an El Niño year most of them have had destructive Cape Verde and Caribbean hurricanes. 1998 had Georges and Mitch, 2003 had Isabel, 2005 had Dennis and Wilma and 2007 had Dean and Felix.

[wxman57]

The reason the SSTs in the MDR are much warmer this year is directly related to the cold weather across the U.S. We had a strong negative NAO for quite a while. This means lower pressure off the East U.S. Coast and a weaker Bermuda High. Weaker Bermuda High means weaker easterly trade winds and less upwelling of cooler water. Last year, pressures across the Atlantic Basin were much higher, resulting in strong easterly trades, high low-level wind shear, and considerable dry air moving off the west coast of Africa.

It's all reversed this year. Look for a very busy season.

[KWT]

It'll be quite interesting to see how this summer behaves, the AO has been super negative this winter, more akin to the winters of the 60s.

I think the ENSO state really will hold the key to this season, every other factor looks good to go IMO for another busy season, like 1995/2003 and the ultimate extreme of 2005 (I refuse to use 1998 as that rapidly swang to a powerful La Nina that summer, however thats another one where everything set-up well after the El nino)

I also like 60s ENSO given the northern hemisphere this winter has been very much similar to the 60s in pattern, though obviously not as cold.

[blp]

JB seems to agree. He cites 1964, 1998, 2005 & 2008 as analogs. Some active seasons. Too early to tell, but interesting to say the least.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... %20Lurking

[Cookie]

JB seems to agree. He cites 1964, 1998, 2005 & 2008 as analogs. Some active seasons. Too early to tell, but interesting to say the least.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... %20Lurking

very interesting thanks for posting

[cycloneye]

I cant imagine a repeat of 1998 because I dont want to experience something similar like this:

[Macrocane]

That's a great loop of Georges
1998 was interesting in a meteorological point of view but it caused so much destruction in the Caribbean and Central America that nobody wants to experience it again, unfortuantely it seems that 1998 is a good analog especially if La Niña develops. Too early to tell but let's be prepared for anything.

[srainhoutx]

I cant imagine a repeat of 1998 because I dont want to experience something similar like this:

[cycloneye]

To continue with the 1998 analog discussion,here are how the anomalies were on Febuary 24,1998:



Here are the Febuary 25,2010 anomalies:



You can see the Tropical Atlantic between Africa and Lesser Antilles in above average sstas on both.

[OuterBanker]

I forgot to mention on my JB post. This was also a concern. The warmer sst's in the breeding grounds with cooler sst's in the lats north of them causing more lifting.

[cycloneye]

GOM is cold for the most part except in the loop current now,but watch with time how it will start to warm.

[cycloneye]

Its easy to see how warmer are the waters in 2010 compared to 2009 at the same date of Febuary 28.

Febuary 28,2009



Febuary 28,2010

[HURAKAN]

February 28, 2005


February 28, 2010


It's warmer in comparison to 2005. WOW

[KWT]

Yep, Feb is almost certain to come in probably as warm in terms of the TNA as 2005, its certainly a rather worrying trend though there is still quite a lot of time for the SSTA to decrease, esp if we were to get a strengthening of the Azores high.

[wxman57]

As we saw in 2009, SSTs are only part of the equation. If you remember, the Gulf of Mexico SSTs were well above normal, even higher than in 2005. Fortunately, wind shear was also high in the Gulf, so we saw no big storms. I'm afraid this year will be different in that the wind shear will likely be much lower than 2009, and not just because El Nino will be gone. It's the lower pressures in the MDR due to a weakened Bermuda High that are resulting in lower easterly trade winds and less low-level shear (and less dry air).