Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Nederlander]

maybe they are following the models' consistencies, which in this case, is a complete lack of consistency.. i need a good 3 or 4 solid, consistent runs to get on board with a texas snow event... not convinced yet

[Ntxw]

18z nam is actually bringing that energy south into California instead of breaking down the ridge...trend, though not much different than it's previous run. And nederlander, many of the models have showed a signal for possible winter weather. Of course they falter on details having it being smaller or bigger, nort\south run per run. That's to be expected this far out. You look at the general pattern of the atmosphere and it looks somewhat conducive right now. Hopefully it continues to go towards our favor.

[shibumi]

JB says Texas watch out on his video today, similar to pattern that gave Dallas snow last week but with cross polar flow involved.

The latest public video I see from JB is Feb 16th...does he do videos as well as the column now for customers?

He has daily updated videos for professional members. Some of his specials and long rangers go out occasionally to the public.

Ah thanks...it has been a few years since I canceled my "perscription"...I always enjoyed reading his column but he did not have videos much back then...it was just too expensive for just his column for an individual like me....

[Snowman67]

From this afternoons NWS discussion (DFW)

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SUNDAY
WITH EACH MODEL BRINGING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
DIFFERENT DAYS. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS ALSO HINTS AT WINTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OR MORE
CONSISTENCY CAN BE REACHED...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF LOW POPS AND ALL LIQUID QPF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH NEXT WEEK.

What I find hilarious is that both the ECMWF and the GFS hint that temps will be cold enough for winter precipitation, but they decide to go with all liquid. Go figure.

[iorange55]

From this afternoons NWS discussion (DFW)

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SUNDAY
WITH EACH MODEL BRINGING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
DIFFERENT DAYS. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS ALSO HINTS AT WINTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OR MORE
CONSISTENCY CAN BE REACHED...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF LOW POPS AND ALL LIQUID QPF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH NEXT WEEK.

What I find hilarious is that both the ECMWF and the GFS hint that temps will be cold enough for winter precipitation, but they decide to go with all liquid. Go figure.

Lol that is kind of funny.

[srainhoutx]

Been very busy today. Did I miss something...

[gboudx]

Why does it matter? It's many days away and lots of time to revise if they to.

[txagwxman]

Yea it is still up in the air right now...these models are all over the place and they are throwing different solutions on the trough in the Pac NW.

[iorange55]

Why does it matter? It's many days away and lots of time to revise if they to.

Just kind of funny that both models show it yet they won't put it in the forecast. If it showed anything else I am sure they would be more likely to put it in there. It's just entertaining how snow is touted as such a never mention till it's 100% kind of thing here. Nothing is certain, and we might not get any. It's just funny how they are quick to jump on board when the GFS shows some of it's crazy solutions, but if it shows snow then they're very hesitate.

[wxman57]

From this afternoons NWS discussion (DFW)

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SUNDAY
WITH EACH MODEL BRINGING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
DIFFERENT DAYS. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS ALSO HINTS AT WINTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OR MORE
CONSISTENCY CAN BE REACHED...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF LOW POPS AND ALL LIQUID QPF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH NEXT WEEK.

What I find hilarious is that both the ECMWF and the GFS hint that temps will be cold enough for winter precipitation, but they decide to go with all liquid. Go figure.

12Z GFS is forecasting cold rain for Dallas-Ft. Worth for the most part, with a little snow as the precip ends. Projected vertical profile is warmer than with the last event. But there is considerable uncertainty 6 days out. Is there any reason why the DFW NWS office should mention snow this far out? They have nothing to gain by doing so (as a private weather company would).

[Snowman67]

From this afternoons NWS discussion (DFW)

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SUNDAY
WITH EACH MODEL BRINGING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
DIFFERENT DAYS. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS ALSO HINTS AT WINTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OR MORE
CONSISTENCY CAN BE REACHED...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF LOW POPS AND ALL LIQUID QPF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH NEXT WEEK.

What I find hilarious is that both the ECMWF and the GFS hint that temps will be cold enough for winter precipitation, but they decide to go with all liquid. Go figure.

12Z GFS is forecasting cold rain for Dallas-Ft. Worth for the most part, with a little snow as the precip ends. Projected vertical profile is warmer than with the last event. But there is considerable uncertainty 6 days out. Is there any reason why the DFW NWS office should mention snow this far out? They have nothing to gain by doing so (as a private weather company would).

You miss my point completely 57. I never said they should forecast snow. It is just funny to me that they reference both the GFS and ECMWF as supporting frozen precip, then in the very next breath state - "we will go with all liquid".

My point had nothing to do with whether it will snow or not.

[gboudx]

You miss my point completely 57. I never said they should forecast snow. It is just funny to me that they reference both the GFS and ECMWF as supporting frozen precip, then in the very next breath state - "we will go with all liquid".

My point had nothing to do with whether it will snow or not.

How would you suggest they re-write the PM AFD?

[iorange55]

You miss my point completely 57. I never said they should forecast snow. It is just funny to me that they reference both the GFS and ECMWF as supporting frozen precip, then in the very next breath state - "we will go with all liquid".

My point had nothing to do with whether it will snow or not.

How would you suggest they re-write the PM AFD?

Lol, I think we're all taking it a little too seriously.

[wxman57]

You miss my point completely 57. I never said they should forecast snow. It is just funny to me that they reference both the GFS and ECMWF as supporting frozen precip, then in the very next breath state - "we will go with all liquid".

My point had nothing to do with whether it will snow or not.

I got your point, but there certainly isn't any agreement from run-to-run (GFS) that DFW area will get snow. And snow is an extreme event. There is a lot more uncertainty with next week's event than with the event of a week ago (I know, they still forecast mostly rain when there was unanimous model agreement on snow). They have nothing to gain by forecasting an extreme event 6 days out. It's not their job to look for extreme events and forecast them from as far out as possible.

So don't be upset that they're not going for an extreme event. They never will do so, they'll always take the middle road so that they minimize their potential error (in their eyes). That's one reason we have this forum. Besides, such a position by the NWS of not forecasting extreme events is good for my business.

[srainhoutx]

Close your eyes Portastorm...no peeking...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CST THU FEB 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS WELL UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IN A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH FROM
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THESE WILL COVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE (PWS NEAR 1 INCH) THERE. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A PACIFIC
FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES PWS TO NEAR 1 INCH AND HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME INSTABILITY IS INDICATED. SHOULD THE FRONT BE
A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
SOME SHEAR. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT
AND NO POPS ARE INDICATED. COOLER, BREEZY, AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY, THE
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES BRINGING SOUTHERLY 850 MB
LAYER FLOW BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSES
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY GENERATING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
FASTER AND MORE FOCUSED BRINGING A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW ZERO LEADING TO A CHANCE OF WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION. THEN
A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL DISREGARD THE ECMWF. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS. MAV/MEX TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE AND HPC QPF SEEMS REASONABLE.

[natlib]

I think the San Angelo guys have the general forecasters attitude summed up in their afternoon discussion:

For next week...there is a great deal of uncertainty in this part
of the forecast as the models are having difficulty handling the
split flow aloft. The models differ on the timing and track of an
upper level trough with a cold front for next week. The European model (ecmwf) is
much faster with the trough...with the trough approaching west
central Texas from southwestern Continental U.S. On Tuesday with west central
Texas under northerly flow aloft by Wednesday morning. While the
GFS has the trough approaching west central Texas on Wednesday.
Given the uncertainty have not made any real changes to the
forecast...did add a slight chance for precipitation on Wednesday
but have very little confidence in next weeks forecast.

[Snowman67]

You miss my point completely 57. I never said they should forecast snow. It is just funny to me that they reference both the GFS and ECMWF as supporting frozen precip, then in the very next breath state - "we will go with all liquid".

My point had nothing to do with whether it will snow or not.

How would you suggest they re-write the PM AFD?

I don't know......maybe explain why they are forecasting all liquid when the preceding sentence they wrote just stated that both the GFS and ECMWF supported frozen precip. or perhaps state if they were favoring another model in lieu of the gfs or ecmwf. Without that additional information, it just looked a little strange to me.

Like I said, it's not whether it snows or doesn't, it was just written in a way that I found a little humorous. Sorry if that offends you.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Close your eyes Portastorm...no peeking...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CST THU FEB 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS WELL UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IN A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH FROM
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THESE WILL COVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE (PWS NEAR 1 INCH) THERE. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A PACIFIC
FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES PWS TO NEAR 1 INCH AND HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME INSTABILITY IS INDICATED. SHOULD THE FRONT BE
A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
SOME SHEAR. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT
AND NO POPS ARE INDICATED. COOLER, BREEZY, AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY, THE
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES BRINGING SOUTHERLY 850 MB
LAYER FLOW BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSES
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY GENERATING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
FASTER AND MORE FOCUSED BRINGING A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW ZERO LEADING TO A CHANCE OF WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION. THEN
A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL DISREGARD THE ECMWF. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS. MAV/MEX TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE AND HPC QPF SEEMS REASONABLE.

Maybe Portastorm will get another Freezing Fog advisory out of this one?

[Portastorm]

No, no ... fair is fair. Since I bashed them this morning in this thread, I will give them kudos for a reasonable and well thought out AFD. They did a good job of explaining the complexity and potential scenarios.

Freezing Fog ... hush up CC ... or I'll be wishing another summer of drought for you!

[Snowman67]

You miss my point completely 57. I never said they should forecast snow. It is just funny to me that they reference both the GFS and ECMWF as supporting frozen precip, then in the very next breath state - "we will go with all liquid".

My point had nothing to do with whether it will snow or not.

I got your point, but there certainly isn't any agreement from run-to-run (GFS) that DFW area will get snow. And snow is an extreme event. There is a lot more uncertainty with next week's event than with the event of a week ago (I know, they still forecast mostly rain when there was unanimous model agreement on snow). They have nothing to gain by forecasting an extreme event 6 days out. It's not their job to look for extreme events and forecast them from as far out as possible.

So don't be upset that they're not going for an extreme event. They never will do so, they'll always take the middle road so that they minimize their potential error (in their eyes). That's one reason we have this forum. Besides, such a position by the NWS of not forecasting extreme events is good for my business.

Upset? No. Found it humorous the way they it was written? - Yes. That's it.