Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

How much is it showing for the dfw area. preferably fort worth.

4-5" DFW, 2-3" Austin, 2" CLL, maybe we squeeze an inch NW of Houston...but still early.

Isn't that the truth! Good place to be in if you're near Central/SE TX/SW LA right now. But don't let Portastorm know. Think southern track.

[somethingfunny]

I am curious, and I know that this potential event is still nearly a week away, but is everybody pretty confident that the temperature profiles will NOT be supportive of an ice storm at this point? I'd rather have 35 degrees and rain than 30 degrees and rain, any day!

It is not a week away. We're talking Tues\Weds. Within 5 days or so, cross polar flow

So, it's 5-6 days from now. Does cross polar flow imply the cold air profile will be deep enough to avert an ice storm?

[Ntxw]

I am curious, and I know that this potential event is still nearly a week away, but is everybody pretty confident that the temperature profiles will NOT be supportive of an ice storm at this point? I'd rather have 35 degrees and rain than 30 degrees and rain, any day!

It is not a week away. We're talking Tues\Weds. Within 5 days or so, cross polar flow

So, it's 5-6 days from now. Does cross polar flow imply the cold air profile will be deep enough to avert an ice storm?

Not necessarily. Often times, that's true arctic air which can be very shallow. But the models don't really depict ICE at this time. The theme mostly this winter has been snow.

[Peanut432]

I know that its way to far out, but any chance those heavier totals go up or expand north or south more? Any threat of ice in Oklahoma instead of snow? It doesn't look like we'll get much now, but it doesn't take much ice. Please no.......i'd rather get nothing which may be what I get.

[Ntxw]

I know that its way to far out, but any chance those heavier totals go up or expand north or south more? Any threat of ice in Oklahoma instead of snow? It doesn't look like we'll get much now, but it doesn't take much ice. Please no.......i'd rather get nothing which may be what I get.

If it does have a northerly track, I don't think it will be ice for Oklahoma. Should be all snow. 540 thickness is well to your south.

0z ECMWF = NADA

I swear the GFS and EURO are complete opposites of each other this winter lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z ECMWF is definitely not as bullish as the GFS for Texas. It shows a weaker system staying further north, impacting the Red River region and up into Oklahoma in the form of probably some light snow showers Monday into Tuesday. The 00z Canadian looks similar, though a bit slower than the ECMWF, showing some light precipitation near the Red River and into Oklahoma early next week followed by a more substantial round of precipitation mid week. I should note that the ECMWF also shows the second, stronger round of precipitation too, but it doesn't look too overly impressive in terms of cold air. It shows 850mb temperatures below 0C over Oklahoma, but the 540 thickness line stays well north..probably meaning a set up for sleet or some form of wintry mix.

[somethingfunny]

Hmm, it's already early Friday morning and the models can't figure out if there will be a system present on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, or at all.

[Ntxw]

Whatever happens, or doesn't, it may very well be the last big chance since meteorological spring isn't too far off now. Could be winter cancel from DFW south (rare exceptions do occur) though can't say the same for Oklahoma as some of the most prolific snowstorms (central and northern Oklahoma) occur in March!

[DentonGal]

Well, all the major DFW locall weather people are showing freezing temps and snow for us on Tuesday of next week...ABC, NBC, and CBS. Interesting.....

[wxman57]

Did anyone look what the GFS is doing with surface temps? I plotted a meteogram and it has DFW in the 40s during the precip next Tue-Thu:

[wxman22]

Did anyone look what the GFS is doing with surface temps? I plotted a meteogram and it has DFW in the 40s during the precip next Tue-Thu:

Im not sure what you're seeing but it shows temps in the low 30's Tuesday its Thursday/Friday where it shows temps in the 40's...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDAL

[Portastorm]

More importantly Wxman57, are you thinking we shouldn't be buying into any model scenarios until late this weekend ... given the flip-flopping?

I was surprised to see the 0z Euro come out with a very different look for next week and am curious how the operational run matches up with its ensemble members. It's only been in the last several runs that the GFS has gotten bullish on a winter storm for much of Texas. Only consistent one has been the UKMET, the top scoring model this winter, which still suggests a winter storm for central and north Texas.

[txagwxman]

Like I said yesterday it all depends upon the trough in the Pacific Northwest, ECMWF rotates it and merges it with the Pacific trough, that is why there is no snow with the ECMWF. GFS is still on the ball, as is the NAM -- which makes me worry. UKMET still similar to the GFS. But the GEM more like the ECMWF--no snow.

As for the 2m temps from the GFS, it just below freezing just west of DFW on the model, grid point resolution error. If the upper-level features are right it will snow in Dallas from the GFS.

Right now looking at this it is impossible to make a correct forecast...have to wait and see what the 12z runs do in the Pacific Northwest.

[wxman22]

yep it will be interesting to see what the 12z GFS and Euro shows as the models will have a little more new data ingested.

[Portastorm]

As always txagwxman, it is great to have your continual insights and those of your colleagues. You guys often recalibrate us amateurs and through the process, we learn more!

I think many of this board will be eagerly awaiting the 12z runs today!

[srainhoutx]

The one thing that we can take away from the overnight runs are the fact that there remains a lot of uncertainty via guidance. This has been the story all winter except for the December th event that was well modeled for 5 days prior. With every other 'event' there has been some issues via guidance that did not become clear until around 24-36 hours prior. Perhaps we should keep that in mind as some "food for thought" for the next couple of days and understand why the NWS is very conservative in the medium range with "official forecasts".

[gboudx]

I think Snowman67 may like DFW's morning AFD today.

There's no name attached to the AFD, but I bet it's from a met named Cavanaugh. I've noticed over the months that his/her discussions are very informative and detailed.

Only the wintry part quoted:

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER MODEL CHAOS CONTINUES AND PINNING DOWN ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OR STORM SPECIFICS IS A DIFFICULT TASK TO SAY THE
LEAST. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HOMED IN ON ONE OF TWO BASIC
SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE CONFUSION LIES IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC CYCLONE SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS FORECAST
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/AND 12Z ECMWF. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 00Z GFS HAS EXCELLENT SUPPORT FROM MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF WAS ON BOARD WITH
A SIMILAR SOLUTION PRIOR TO IS 00Z RUN FLOPPING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. THE FAVORED SOLUTION TRANSPORTS A PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE DOMINANT HIGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS
AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING A TROF OVER
THE NORTHWEST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE COLD AIR RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTH PLACING THE UPPER TROF IN A
VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z GFS ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND COLD COLUMN
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER OBVIOUS CONCERNS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. THE
00Z CANADIAN TRANSPORTS PACIFIC ENERGY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS VERY
SLOW TO DEVELOP A MASSIVE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS..AND FINALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF TOTALLY FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.

AFTER ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THINK THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MENTION RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITIES FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.
POPS/PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. GIVEN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP SOME 20
POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER SOLUTION
PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

[txagwxman]

Yes, the 12z runs are going to be interesting to say the least. If they flip towards the ECMWF/GEM in the Pacific Northwest the game is over. Hopefully the ECMWF will flip back.

[Snowman67]

I think Snowman67 may like DFW's morning AFD today.

There's no name attached to the AFD, but I bet it's from a met named Cavanaugh. I've noticed over the months that his/her discussions are very informative and detailed.

Only the wintry part quoted:

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER MODEL CHAOS CONTINUES AND PINNING DOWN ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OR STORM SPECIFICS IS A DIFFICULT TASK TO SAY THE
LEAST. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HOMED IN ON ONE OF TWO BASIC
SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE CONFUSION LIES IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC CYCLONE SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS FORECAST
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/AND 12Z ECMWF. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 00Z GFS HAS EXCELLENT SUPPORT FROM MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF WAS ON BOARD WITH
A SIMILAR SOLUTION PRIOR TO IS 00Z RUN FLOPPING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. THE FAVORED SOLUTION TRANSPORTS A PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE DOMINANT HIGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS
AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING A TROF OVER
THE NORTHWEST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE COLD AIR RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTH PLACING THE UPPER TROF IN A
VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z GFS ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND COLD COLUMN
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER OBVIOUS CONCERNS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. THE
00Z CANADIAN TRANSPORTS PACIFIC ENERGY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS VERY
SLOW TO DEVELOP A MASSIVE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS..AND FINALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF TOTALLY FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.

AFTER ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THINK THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MENTION RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITIES FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.
POPS/PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. GIVEN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP SOME 20
POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER SOLUTION
PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

Love it. Very detailed and informative On the downside I live in SE Texas, and it appears that I have another cold rain event to look forward to next week. Oh well, maybe I won't have to drive too far to see snow!

[srainhoutx]

Sometimes it does help to take a look at the 'Big Picture'. NH Water Vapor imagery can offer some clues...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

Edit to add the Short Range Disco this morning from the HPC...snow cover and colder temps will aid the process IMHO...On to the 12Z runs...

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
314 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 19 2010 - 12Z SUN FEB 21 2010

A COMPLEX PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER COASTAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BLOCK PACIFIC STORMS FROM IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
INTO WESTERN CANADA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY WARM INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY COLD AIR TO DROP
DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...WHILE ALSO ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE INTO CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.

RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER WESTERN CALIFORNIA
BY TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS...AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER A STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL REACH ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT CONTINUES EAST.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE A LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD...DROPPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING PACIFIC
FRONT...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR SATURDAY WHICH WILL OVERRUN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS LEADING TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS WELL AS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...EASTWARD TO MISSOURI.

ACROSS COLORADO...AFTER SNOW DISSIPATES LATER TODAY...THE FRONT
RANGE IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE INDUCED SNOW
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW FROM CALIFORNIA
APPROACHES. THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD HOWEVER...WITH ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO REACH OVER A FOOT IN MANY LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A NUMBER OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
REVOLVING ABOUT A COMMON CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AND SATURDAY. FARTHER SOUTH HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
NEAR SEASONABLE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

OTTO