Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

HEY I am about 15 minutes from the ellis county line. Maybe we will get some decent accumulation out of it. And I see san antonio has a chance for at least something. However I am not going to tell my friend till I know it's about to fall.

[Texas2Florida]

GFS drops 5 inches on us lets see what the next runs bring i think that this is going to strat to trend back to the north. watches will come tommorw.

I saw that! yay! This is better than Tropical Tracking when I lived in Fort Lauderdale!!

[gofrogs2]

DFW is one county to the north of the winter storm watch how many times do we hear the wrods the watch area will be expanded hmhhm

[Texas2Florida]

I would guess late tonight or tomorrow, 24 hours out. Or heck..Tuesday when the kids are already in school! LOL!

[funster]

There is more precip now showing for the DFW area, including .23 of an inch at 31 degrees.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDAL

[Nederlander]

GFS drops 5 inches on us lets see what the next runs bring i think that this is going to strat to trend back to the north. watches will come tommorw.

I saw that! yay! This is better than Tropical Tracking when I lived in Fort Lauderdale!!

Gotta take the 18z with a grain of salt.. as others have said, model runs consistently show a central TX storm

[Weatherdude20]

There is more precip now showing for the DFW area, including .23 of an inch at 31 degrees.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDAL

That is at Dallas.
The one that was previously posted was Fort Worth/Meachem, very similar.

[Extremeweatherguy]

As for the 18z GFS snowfall amounts in the Dallas area, here is a look at what the run actually showed:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdfw.dat

3.8 inches at DFW.

It is important to keep in mind though that the 12z run showed 0.0 inches at DFW, so I wouldn't get too excited about this sudden shift just yet. It would probably be wise to wait and see what the 00z runs offer up first.

[Peanut432]

It seems like the 18z has moved it north for the past few nights, only to have the "fresh" run move it back south when I wake up in the mourning

[DentonGal]

What time does the 00z start running?

[cycloneye]

What time does the 00z start running?

The NAM starts at 9 PM EST and GFS at 10:30 PM EST.

[sphelps8681]

Are we looking at any snow for Lumberton Tx N of 1-10.

NWS say we have a 40% or rain/snow.

[DentonGal]

Here are Larry Cosgrove's thoughts tonight....

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

[msstateguy83]

i agree w/what porta said earlyer i would say anyone basically from the redriver area down to austin area needs to be on
high alert for this system we will see what the 00z says in a few and overnight runs but we could still be looking at a wide
area just depends on what this thing does but time will tell i mean the signs have been further south but i would NOT close
the books on it as a sure bet yet...

[jasons2k]

Here are Larry Cosgrove's thoughts tonight....

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

Thank you for the post

My favorite part, of course, is the last two full paragrapghs. I'm definitely one of those wondering when the cold/dreary pattern will finally end. His explanation of the pattern change to a more traditional El Nino, keeping the coldest air bottled-up up north, is music to my ears

[BrokenGlass]

BTW, the front is now through Dallas. It has dropped from about 68 degrees at 4:00 pm to 43 degrees now at 8:00 pm.

[gofrogs2]

Maybe the southward trend was jsut a friedly little wobble in the models haha.

[Ntxw]

It is still south, the heaviest precip would be from Austin to College Station vs Brownwood to Waco, only it extends the precip a bit further north as well. Based on 0z NAM

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I was waiting to see some comments of the 0z NAM. The cold air mass looks to sink deeper in southwest Texas but is warmer along the southeast coast. Also, the new NAM looks heavier on QPF than the 12z run.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

new nam looks a lot better for college station doesnt it?