ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hurricaneman]

If the models happen to be right, this could be a humdinger of a season and I would not be suprised to see a major landfall

[cycloneye]

I have heard about the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) but I dont know a whole lot about it and how it affects what ENSO does.What I have seen in other sites is that the PDO will turn cold and that will cause El Nino to go away by early summer.What I want to know and I am sure many members may want to know too,is about what is the difference between a warm PDO and a cold PDO and how it works in the ENSO factor?

[MiamiensisWx]

again... that ensemble is NOT indicating cold neutral. It is saying 50/50 chance of slightly warm or slightly cold conditions.

One should not use an ensemble only for its mean... but use its PDF to understand the forecast uncertainty

Derek,

As an aside, have you seen the following ensemble mean forecasts for ENSO during the the Atlantic TC season?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/sstaa.gif

The chart shows a significant spread during ASO (August-September-October 2010), and the majority of the ensemble means are actually above the neutral (0 C) demarcation. Most of the ensembles are showing neutral-warm or even El Nino conditions during ASO. Even more noticeable is the increasing spread among the means as one progresses deeper into the season. If one combines these ensemble means with the CFS ensembles and other international forecasts/ensembles (i.e., POAMA-BOM, ECMWF, UK-Met, etc.), would the data lend support to your 50-percent probability? Perhaps you are also basing your thoughts on these data. If so, could you clarify whether you are doing so?

Thanks!

[Derek Ortt]

I was going off of the spread of the ENSO ensembles, not the mean. About half of them had a warm anomaly of some sort. That is where I was getting the 50% from.

[wxman57]

Check out the latest European. Only one member shows any warm anomaly by September. Most are now indicating neutral to La Nina next fall.



CFS from NCEP is strongly neutral to La Nina, with the newest/latest members (blue lines) trending La Nina by September:

[KWT]

Seeing good signals now finally for El Nino to start to weaken in the next 2 months as the winds switch easterly again after a period with conditions favourable for holding El Nino...

That being said I stil lthink the ECM is WAY too agressive with what it does, the CFS looks better IMO with that respect, however I tend to think that cold neutral or even borderline La Nina briefly after a warm event is just about the worst case event, 2005 was just such a year...

[cycloneye]

For those who missed this important graphic posted in back pages,here it is.Here is how all of this walker circulation works in the different phases of ENSO.

[tolakram]

Seeing good signals now finally for El Nino to start to weaken in the next 2 months as the winds switch easterly again after a period with conditions favourable for holding El Nino...

That being said I stil lthink the ECM is WAY too agressive with what it does, the CFS looks better IMO with that respect, however I tend to think that cold neutral or even borderline La Nina briefly after a warm event is just about the worst case event, 2005 was just such a year...

But the measurement of El Nino is SST's, which will lag reality. The SST's could still be warm enough for El Nino but the winds may already be signaling neutral or La Nina. Am I wrong here?

[cycloneye]

Even the conservative Aussie POAMA model with its ensembles has taken the cold Neutral scenario.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

[wxman57]

It does look very likely that El Nino will not be a factor in the Atlantic Basin in 2010.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the Euro did well again. I don't like how far the Euro goes with the La Nina conditions, but I don't think it is wise to go against the Euro considering how well it did last year and so far this year.

[srainhoutx]

It does look very likely that El Nino will not be a factor in the Atlantic Basin in 2010.

Looks like an active year for your team wxman57. Aren't you just thrilled about all the weekends you'll be in the office.

[KWT]

Looks like the Euro did well again. I don't like how far the Euro goes with the La Nina conditions, but I don't think it is wise to go against the Euro considering how well it did last year and so far this year.

Indeed, though we do need to see quite big drops soon if we going to go quite as extreme as the ECM suggests. What these models tend to do is pick upa signal BUT take the pattern far too far in terms of eventual strength. Still a snapback La Nina is becoming increasingly possible, and the atmosphere plus the usual climo evolution looks like its about ready to flip and kick the El Nino into touch.

That being said I'd be shocked and stunned if we are in anything below say -0.8C by August in terms of monthlies, but cold neutral is something that IMO is possibly becoming the fav....and IMO that may actually be worse then a mod/strong La Nina that some ECM ensembles suggest...if La Nina develops then 98 and 07 become the best years to use.

[Macrocane]

1998: Geroges and Mitch
2007: Dean and Felix

Scary analogs for the Caribbean and Central America.

I'm still waiting for El Niño to fade as it has been steady in the last few weeks but the models are in good agreement that Neutral or even La Niña conditions are possible later this year so I guess that we will start to see a decrase in the strenegth of El Niño in the next weeks.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the Euro did well again. I don't like how far the Euro goes with the La Nina conditions, but I don't think it is wise to go against the Euro considering how well it did last year and so far this year.

Indeed, though we do need to see quite big drops soon if we going to go quite as extreme as the ECM suggests. What these models tend to do is pick upa signal BUT take the pattern far too far in terms of eventual strength. Still a snapback La Nina is becoming increasingly possible, and the atmosphere plus the usual climo evolution looks like its about ready to flip and kick the El Nino into touch.

That being said I'd be shocked and stunned if we are in anything below say -0.8C by August in terms of monthlies, but cold neutral is something that IMO is possibly becoming the fav....and IMO that may actually be worse then a mod/strong La Nina that some ECM ensembles suggest...if La Nina develops then 98 and 07 become the best years to use.

It would be interesting to see what years would compare with the Euro forecast for La Nina AND the forecast for MSLP...I'm not sure 98 and 07 would be the best years when you input the MSLP.

I don't like the 3 big factors coming into play here:

1. Euro forecast for La Nina
2. Euro forecast for MSLP
3. Record SST in the MDR

[cycloneye]

Record SST in the MDR

Even if NAO goes positive during the peak of the season,those waters will cool down but it has been well above average that it would mantain at least +1C for the MDR,scary stuff.

[Scorpion]

Wow, season looks like a powderkeg ready to go. Should be a great ride.

[cycloneye]

Comparison between January 25 and March 25 shows more blues and less yellows on the March graphic but El Nino is still holding its own at this moment.

January 25



March 25

[cycloneye]

Neutral ENSO seasons are very active as La Nina ENSO seasons.

[KWT]

1995 was very much bang on neutral for the main part of the hurricane season, it was only late September that any La Nina really started to develop that season thus a big chunk for ENSO neutral, granted on the cold side of neutral.