Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[cycloneye]

Here is a comparison between 2005 and 2010 where this year has warmer sst's.

2005



2010

[blp]

Check out the time lapse links below: It is amazing to see how fast the water temps have been warming. This year is just going to be ridiculously warm. Also, the NAO seems to be very negative again which should continue to add fuel to fire.

NAO Update:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... .sprd2.gif

Gulf of Mexico SST Time Lapse:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/IASNFS_W ... e/gomt.gif

Carribean SST Time Lapse:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/IASNFS_W ... e/crbt.gif

[cycloneye]

They updated this TCHP graphic as it was not for some days. Much,much warmer than last year at the same date.

21rst of April,2009



21rst of April,2010

[cycloneye]

Wow,in my lifetime,I never have seen the MDR between Africa and Lesser Antilles like this.Click symbol at the upper left side to see a closeup of this image.

[tolakram]

Well,

let's hope this means waves coming off Africa will develop rapidly and re-curve out to sea.

[KWT]

Hopefully, FWIW I do think a reasonable amount will recurve early, however that being said if it does end up being a 15+ season there are bound to be some that end up being a big threat to land...

[HouTXmetro]

After a very cold Winter and below normal sea surface temps. The North Western Gulf is starting show Warm temp anomalies. Looks like the Gulf will be boiling in no time.

[jinftl]

What a difference just 7 days made on sst in the Gulf!!!

[Frank2]

Interesting, though the media consistently reported that the sea surface temp at the oil rig accident site is (was) 67F, and the charts verify this, so the Gulf has a long, long way to go before it can be considered "boiling", since temps of at least 82F are needed to support cyclone development, so a rise of at least 15 degrees (more like 15-20) is going to take time...

If the Gulf temps bottomed out in the low 70's that'd be one thing (as they do many years), but this winter was so cold across the Gulf that temperatures are far below average, so again it's going to take time...

Besides, the entire Tropical Atlantic could be 90F but if the upper level winds are anything like last season, well, we know how quiet last season was, so warm water alone doesn't make for a busy season...

[jinftl]

NOAA graphic of gulf sst shows impressive warmth building in around the Loop Current...light yellow shading corresponds to sst of approx 76F....area between western cuba and yucatan showing 80 deg+ water....




Data from buoys confirms the water temps in the nw caribbean & yucatan channel are already bathtub warm...



Buoy 42056:


Buoy 42057:

[drezee]

Red TCHP in April???????

[cycloneye]

No words to describe this.

[KWT]

Wow those anomalies would probably challenge some deent El Nino's in the past!

No doubt about it though those anomalies are real extreme at the moment.

[HouTXmetro]

The good news is that the GOM is still below normal. I'm not sure how long that is going to last because the high air temps are pushing into the upper 80's/ low 90's along the Gulf Coast.

[drezee]

No words to describe this.

Wow, the E GOM has completely flipped from way below normal! The positive anomalies have really moved West. This is not good news.

[KWT]

The other thing to note as others have said is the upper pattern is going to be very good past today for warming for at least the next 7 days in the Gulf with an upper high dragging in air from the SE/SSE. The fact that the central gulf has reached near average again is suggestive that come June temps could well be supportive of early systems there as well.

Everything looks near primed now for an explosive season.

[wxman57]

Yes, the Gulf is warming up fast:

[Blown Away]

I like that graphic wxman57!! What part of the CONUS do you think has the highest risk for a hurricane in 2010?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like waters off NW Florida are now a little above normal. With temps now consistently in the upper 80's, approaching 90s along the Gulf coast, I am not shocked by this fast turn around!

[jinftl]

The time has just about passed for using the de facto 'Gulf is running well below normal in sst' line of reasoning that was completely valid for the last few months. The SST are still a bit below normal in spots...but, in some places, believe it or not, the Gulf is above normal!!! What a dramatic...and not surprising....rebound.

No matter what the prior winter brought in terms of temps and frontal passages, show me a summer where the Gulf wasn't bathwater by peak season! Put another way...sst won't be the determining factor on what kind of season it is in the gulf...it is a given the water will be plenty warm.