ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[KWT]

Possibly jinftl but if anything we are actually taking longer to get out of this El Nino then you'd expect if you are going to get a La Nina, as I said before most years that develop La Nina are already pretty much bang on 0.0C or already developing a weak La Nina signal...whilst the El Nino is weakening, we are still in an El Nino and I'd like to see a stronger weakening signals before getting too interested about any possible La Nina.

[cycloneye]

The Australians update of El Nino 3.4 area continues to show the rate that it is falling,now to +0.6C. The number of Neutral conditions is +0.5C.

[KWT]

It seems to be falling between 0.07-0.09C a week pretty much, so we will be reaching neutral soon enough based on that, what happens afterwards though is not quite such an easy call, certainly looks likely we will be neutral for the start of the season though now!

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, out of curiosity, for comparison, do you have any SOI data from 2005?

No,I dont have the 2005 data. But lets see if other members have that information for you.

[cycloneye]

For those members that are newbies in the board or for those who dont know a lot about how are the different areas of ENSO divided here is a graphic that explains that. El Nino 3.4 the most important area of ENSO goes from 120W to 170W.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI index doesn't want to stop its spike up as tonigh't update is at +15.7.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ivanhater]

It is higher now than it ever was during the 2009 Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, out of curiosity, for comparison, do you have any SOI data from 2005?

I found a graphic that includes 2005. It was mainly positive during the hurricane season.

[meteorologyman]

Thank you

Well this SOI threw me off a little bit on how it correlates with hurricane seasons, I know (negative values) Sometimes means el-nino event, low trade winds and high Ocean Temps in Pacific (positive values) is exact opposite.

Reason why I'm confuse because 2004 had (negative SOI) which was very active in the Atlantic though it was not an el-nino event and 2005 was (positive SOI) which was a hyper active season, both years was nuetral ENSO

[cycloneye]

Australian's update of ENSO=Neutral Conditions are present

The Aussies jumped the line from El Nino to Neutral. But still Climate Prediction Center is in the Weak El Nino threshold but getting closer to proclaim it Neutral.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


ENSO Wrap-Up: Neutral conditions returning to the Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 28 April 2010

Apart from some lingering warmth in the western Pacific, the majority of ENSO indicators have now dropped below El Niño thresholds. The cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which began in late December, has resulted in trade winds and tropical cloudiness returning to normal. Similarly, the Southern Oscillation Index has risen steadily, remaining positive since early in the second week of April.

Southern Oscillation Index:
The SOI has been rising steadily since late February 2010. The current (25 April) 30-day value is +16, a large increase from the montly value for March of −11.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate La Niña episodes, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate El Niño episodes. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.


Here is the subsurface data. Look at that blue pool down there how it expands.

[Plant grower]

Finally netural now the fun starts.

[thetruesms]

Was working on a presentation for tomorrow and saw that CFS updated this afternoon (images are thumbnailed)

Looks like it brings us to La Nina conditions fairly rapidly


The PDF-corrected version is moderated somewhat, but the 3-month mean is still near La Nina at the peak of the season and beyond -0.5 degrees within the season


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... cast.shtml

[cycloneye]

The update of the SOI tonight goes down from +15.7 to + 15.5. The index will go up and down from now on after this big spike upwards. As long it stays positive,El Nino wont make a comeback.

20100328,20100426,15.7
20100329,20100427,15.5

[cycloneye]

The CFS model continues to drop more colder and colder towards a Weak La Nina by July. I think its a little bit fast to drop all the way down there,but mother nature has its own mind.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... cast.shtml



Here are the 40 ensemble members.

[Macrocane]

Well it has happened before, in 1998 the Pacific experienced a big drop in temperatures, look at the anomalies in the 3 months periods of that year:

FMA: +1.5 °C
MAM: +1.0 °C
AMJ: +0.5 °C
MJJ: 0.0 °C
JJA: -0.5°C
JAS: -0.8°C
ASO -1.0°C

[cycloneye]

ENSO models 4/30/10 monthly update

The April update of all of the ENSO models are Neutral to La Nina as time expands.

Models predict neutral conditions to persist over coming months, with the possibility of cool conditions later in the year.

Summary

As detailed in our ENSO Wrap-up, neutral ENSO conditions have effectively returned to the Pacific Ocean.

Dynamical model predictions of Niño3.4 sea surface temperatures indicate that neutral conditions are likely to persist over the coming months. Six of the seven international models surveyed here, indicate that cooler than average temperatures are expected to return to the central Pacific by the middle of this austral winter. Five of those models raise the possibility of La Niña conditions by spring.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

[KWT]

:uarrow: Well it has happened before, in 1998 the Pacific experienced a big drop in temperatures, look at the anomalies in the 3 months periods of that year:

FMA: +1.5 °C
MAM: +1.0 °C
AMJ: +0.5 °C
MJJ: 0.0 °C
JJA: -0.5°C
JAS: -0.8°C
ASO -1.0°C

True but the La Nina in 1998 was already showing subtle signs of developing strongly, thus far we've seen very few actual signals for anything other then neutral out there. sure the SOI is positive but that IMO isn't nearly enough to suggest any La Nina is developing right now. With 1998 the cold water was very well established already to the south of the El Nino and drifted northwards over the year, here is the image from mid June of the event with already large cooler than average waters present close to the 3.4 zone:

http://outreach.eos.nasa.gov/EOSDIS_CD- ... p49933.gif

Still I see no reason why things won't continue to steadily cool down at least towards cool neutral...

[cycloneye]

The cooler waters are starting to reach the surface as El Nino 3.4 area is now blue with +0.5C to 0.0C.

[brunota2003]

Here is my question about this...if we hit La Nina fairly quickly, wouldn't it take a little bit of time for that to translate over in terms of weather conditions in the Atlantic? I mean, the Atlantic is not going to just be like "Oh, I feel like being La Nina today." Much like the pressure in a storm drops, but it takes a bit for the winds to catch up.

[cycloneye]

Here is my question about this...if we hit La Nina fairly quickly, wouldn't it take a little bit of time for that to translate over in terms of weather conditions in the Atlantic? I mean, the Atlantic is not going to just be like "Oh, I feel like being La Nina today." Much like the pressure in a storm drops, but it takes a bit for the winds to catch up.

What I have heard is that there is a lag of time for the atmospheric conditions to catch up to Neutral or La Nina. For example,ENSO is at Neutral from now,it may take a month to get conditions of Neutral.But I may be wrong on this so I better wait for one of our pro mets to tell us the real deal with this.