Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

[RL3AO]

7pm Wichita Falls NAM sounding.



Yikes.

[6SpeedTA95]

7pm Wichita Falls NAM sounding.



Yikes.

Wow...the HODO is equally impressive.`

[6SpeedTA95]

I think 11:30am cdt might be the upgrade to high risk.

The 00Z nam is substantially different than the 12z or 18z.

[wx247]

I think 11:30am cdt might be the upgrade to high risk.

The 00Z nam is substantially different than the 12z or 18z.

I haven't had a chance to thoroughly look at it. What's your take on it?

[johnmarkthom]

Uh-Oh Upgrade to High Risk SE KS and NE OK

[somethingfunny]

Oh wow. Strange that we're not even expecting rain here in DFW.

[wx247]

Here is a graphical look at the threat area as of 6 am central time this morning:

[KWT]

A fairly early upgrade to a high risk event but not all that surprising.

Going to be a long eveing/night once the cap does break.

[Mindi]

Any estimation of when the cap might break?

[cycloneye]

Here is the Accuweather discussion video about this event.

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp

[KWT]

Any estimation of when the cap might break?

Hard to call, some models show some stormsm trying to break out as early as the mid afternoon but there is some big uncertainties still with this evolution...

[CrazyC83]

I would guess late afternoon for the cap breaking - maybe around 4 pm local time.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the threat area - as of 9:00 am CDT

Arkansas
Fayetteville - Overcast, 54 (52)
Fort Smith - Overcast, 54 (51)

Kansas
Chanute - Light rain, 50 (48)
Emporia - Overcast, 50 (47)
Hays - Overcast, 52 (48)
Pratt - Overcast, 52 (52)
Salina - Overcast, 51 (49)
Topeka - Light rain, 50 (48)
Wichita - Drizzle, 52 (51)

Missouri
Joplin - Overcast, 51 (47)
Kansas City - Overcast, 49 (45)
Sedalia - Light rain, 49 (45)
Springfield - Overcast, 49 (46)

Oklahoma
Altus - Mostly cloudy, 68 (64)
Ardmore - Mostly cloudy, 66 (63)
Bartlesville - Overcast, 54 (52)
Clinton - Overcast, 62 (60)
Enid - Fog, 58 (58)
Lawton - Mostly cloudy, 69 (64)
McAlester - Mostly cloudy, 63 (58)
Muskogee - Overcast, 55 (53)
Oklahoma City - Overcast, 64 (61)
Stillwater - Overcast, 58 (56)
Tulsa - Overcast, 55 (53)
Woodward - Overcast, 62 (58)

Texas
Abilene - Partly cloudy, 75 (63)
Dallas - Partly cloudy, 76 (67)
Fort Worth - Mostly cloudy, 77 (67)
Sherman - Mostly cloudy, 67 (63)
Wichita Falls - Mostly cloudy, 72 (64)

[Ntxwx]

I would guess late afternoon for the cap breaking - maybe around 4 pm local time.

My guess is 4:00 pm as well.

[brunota2003]

Certainly looks like central Oklahoma will be the main area today. Will be looking for storms to develop around the Lawton/Ft. Sill area and probably rapidly go tornado warned as they head to the NE. Enid, OKC, and Tulsa look to be under the gun, then the cells will shift quickly to the NE by nightfall.

What do y'all think?

[Ntxwx]

I belive the caping inversion could potentially give in in North Texas, although the main threat for this system, as been previoulsy stated remains further north in the MDT and High Risk zones from OKC eastward toward Tulsa and southeast Kansas.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME ERN CO...WRN KS INTO NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101537Z - 101730Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AROUND 17-18Z.


LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A 90+ KT
CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO/THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATELY STRONG CAPE AS SURFACE HEATING PROGRESSES. THE
DEVELOPING DRY LINE NEAR A DEEP SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION ...AND STORM
INITIATION...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THOUGH
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MODEST...CLOCKWISE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/ INCREASING AMBIENT
VERTICAL VORTICITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 05/10/2010


ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

[wx247]

I noticed clouds are beginning to erode across Southern Oklahoma. This is behind the warm front. We shall see how much northward progress the front makes.

[johnmarkthom]

Doesn't look like much has changed with the 11:00 update from the SPC.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the threat area - as of 12:00 pm CDT

Arkansas
Fayetteville - Overcast, 57 (54)
Fort Smith - Light rain, 56 (53)

Kansas
Chanute - Overcast, 54 (51)
Dodge City - Overcast, 58 (57)
Emporia - Overcast, 52 (49)
Garden City - Overcast, 63 (60)
Goodland - Fog, 55 (54)
Hays - Overcast, 54 (52)
Pratt - Overcast, 55 (54)
Salina - Overcast, 51 (49)
Topeka - Light rain, 51 (49)
Wichita - Drizzle, 55 (55)

Missouri
Joplin - Overcast, 55 (50)
Kansas City - Rain, 48 (46)
Sedalia - Thunderstorm, 50 (48)
Springfield - Overcast, 49 (47)

Oklahoma
Altus - Clear, 81 (67)
Ardmore - Mostly cloudy, 70 (64)
Bartlesville - Overcast, 57 (55)
Clinton - A few clouds, 75 (64)
Enid - Overcast, 65 (65)
Lawton - Mostly cloudy, 77 (67)
McAlester - Mostly cloudy, 66 (61)
Muskogee - Mostly cloudy, 59 (55)
Oklahoma City - Mostly cloudy, 66 (62)
Stillwater - Mostly cloudy, 64 (60)
Tulsa - Mostly cloudy, 59 (56)
Woodward - Partly cloudy, 72 (61)

Texas
Abilene - A few clouds, 84 (67)
Dallas - Mostly cloudy, 80 (67)
Fort Worth - Partly cloudy, 81 (67)
Sherman - Mostly cloudy, 74 (67)
Wichita Falls - Partly cloudy, 82 (66)