ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/10/10 update=Neutral by June,La Nina thereafter

This new update from CPC shows how fast the ocean is cooling at El Nino 3.4 area,down now to 0.3.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4=+0.8
Niño 3.4= +0.5
Nino 3=+0.5
Niño1+2= +0.3


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +0.5
Niño 3.4= +0.3
Niño 3= +0.5
Niño1+2= +0.2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[brunota2003]

Could we hit 0.0 by the end of May? Certainly appears that way (if not a bit lower at the rate it is going!)

[Macrocane]

Bye bye El Niño, see you in a few years!

Although to make official that we're in Neutral conditions we have to wait for the 3 months overlap to reach less than 0.5.

[cycloneye]

Only by looking at this global graphic of the anomalies,you can pick up how the Pacific is cooling compared to the Atlantic.

[KWT]

Could we hit 0.0 by the end of May? Certainly appears that way (if not a bit lower at the rate it is going!)

Its quite possible but current conditions in the Indian Ocean have really helped to cool things down in the ENSO zone, as the Indian ocean warms again in the next couple weeks after the recent cooldown it'll probably slow any cooling down, possibly to the point where we even see a slight rise briefly.

That being said its hard to ignore the trend right now, La Nina does seem to be at least possible, though I'd favour a 95 type event rather then 98/07 type event.

[cycloneye]

For information only.

Daily 30 day SOI Text

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt


Daily SOI Values

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

El Nino 3.4 continues to crash and the Australians have it at 0.2.
The question is now,when will it switch to La Nina as it looks like it wont spend much time in Neutral status.

[cycloneye]

Australian 5/12/10 update=El Nino Finishes

Well,the news is not a surprise but is good to know that a agency delivered the final obituary.Now the question is,how long does it stays Neutral plus when will La Nina arrive and how strong will it be. Read discussion and see the graphics below.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


ENSO Wrap-Up: El Niño finishes
Issued on Wednesday 12 May 2010 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The El Niño event of 2009/10 has concluded, with all the major indicators now below El Niño thresholds. Latest observations show that sea surface temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness over the Pacific have all returned to levels considered typical of neutral (i.e. neither El Niño nor La Niña) conditions. The timing of the decline in the 2009/10 El Niño event has been fairly typical, with the event peaking over summer then decaying during autumn.

Historically, about 40% of El Niño events are immediately followed by a La Niña. Current conditions below the surface of the Pacific Ocean show large volumes of cooler than normal water, indicating that further cooling of the surface is likely.

The majority of climate model predictions suggest the tropical Pacific will cool further during the coming months, with the possible development of La Niña conditions by late winter or spring. No climate models suggest a return to El Niño conditions.

[cycloneye]

Interesting to see the differences between the inactive period and the active one regarding ENSO and even with La Nina,the numbers were relativly low,but it reverses in the active multi-decadal period.

http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images ... u2007.html

[cycloneye]

The cold waters continue to expand as you can see in this graphic. It looks like La Nina doesn't want to waste time arriving.

[cycloneye]

The CFS (NCEP) model really dips rapidly to La Nina as early as June mantaining those conditions thru January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... cast.shtml

[cycloneye]

Here is a comparison of only one week and you can see how rapid the cold waters are expanding to the surface in the equatorial Pacific.

May 6

Subsurface waters in Equatorial Pacific on May 6

May 13

Subsurface waters in Equatorial Pacific on May 13

[Blown Away]

It will be interesting if La Nina kicks in during the heart of the hurricane season. JB said more southerly tracks may occur if La Nina appears, not sure how that works since we expect negative NAO?

[OURAGAN]

El nino is decaying very quickly, here is the chart 13/05/2010 (French Data):

I think, el nino 3-4 is already at 0,0, maybe -0,1.


http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anom ... 3.2010.gif

What do you think about that ?

[pepeavilenho]

¡¡NEUTRAL CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW!!

[thetruesms]

A PNS from NWS HQ earlier this afternoon:

000
NOUS41 KWBC 141630
PNSWSH

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 10-26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGER WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
-OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM: FIONA HORSFALL
CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT: EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE JUNE 2010 EL NINO-SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION /ENSO/ DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION

THE JUNE 2010 EDITION OF THE MONTHLY EL NINO-SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION /ENSO/ DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED ON
JUNE 3 2010...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED.

THE CHANGE IS DUE TO THE ONGOING RAPID TRANSITION FROM EL NINO
TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LA NINA CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THIS IS A ONE TIME
ONLY CHANGE. IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE ISSUANCE DATE FOR THE JULY
2010 OR SUBSEQUENT ENSO DISCUSSIONS.

THIS PRODUCT IS ONLINE AT /USE LOWERCASE/:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/A ... ING/ENSO_A
DVISORY/INDEX.SHTML

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT

MIKE HALPERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
5200 AUTH RD. ROOM 800-B
CAMPS SPRINGS MD 20746
301-763-8000 EXT 7535
MIKE.HALPERT@NOAA.GOV

NATIONAL SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE ONLINE AT /USE LOWERCASE/:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/NOTIF.HTM

bolding is my own

[cycloneye]

Hmmm,that may mean CPC is ready to follow the Australians that already proclaimed El Nino finished to do the same.

[MHurricanes]

I interviewed meterologist Joe D'Aleo today (ICECAP.us). He expects La Nina to kick in this summer and transition to a strong La Nina by next Fall.

Phil Klotzbach and William Gray are more conservative in their ENSO forecast. They are predicting neutral conditions through the summer. But that projection may change when they release their updated seasonal hurricane forecast June 4.

By the way, I will be interviewing Dr. Phil Klotzbach next Monday for an environmental news column I write.

Kirk Myers
Seminole County Environmental News Columnist
http://www.examiner.com/x-32936-Seminole-County-Environmental-News-Examiner

[cycloneye]

KWT,I think by looking at the subsurface graphic,it is inevitable that La Nina will make an appearance sooner rather than later.But what we dont know is how strong it will be.

[cycloneye]

Could we hit 0.0 by the end of May? Certainly appears that way (if not a bit lower at the rate it is going!)

I think before the month is out as is falling like a rock. By the way,the 90 day SOI continues to creep up.