Global model runs discussion

[lonelymike]

Of course this is way ahead in time and is only a run and we have to see other models joining,but if it pans out,it would be a big nightmare in the GOM and we know why.

Ah our first phanton deathcane of 2010 from the GFS. How I missed laughing at these

[ronjon]

Yeah, 1st model run by GFS to show development this season. And its out in the 300+ hour time frame so its nothing to worry about. It does coincide with a MJO pulse that begins after the middle of the month. I suspect if this ever did verify that the track would shift eastward with time. Unusual, climatology wise to see a GOM track into the western GOM in June.

[Ivanhater]

A storm in the Gulf in mid June? No, the GFS couldn't be right Of course this exact run probably will not be right, but a very probable solution.

[KWT]

Indeed its probably the model once again clocking onto more favourable conditions as the MJO wave comes in again, we saw the last uptick with 90L and Agatha/91L and the next one will probably be somewhat more favourable again.

Wouldn't shock me if something did indeed develop from just such a set-up...but thats a very long way off still!

[gatorcane]

Below is the 15-day Chi 200 hPa, which basically shows that it expects an increasing amount of "sinking" air across the Caribbean and some of the Atlantic (orange shading). That combined with nothing really showing up in all of the models is telling me there is a decent possibility no named system will form in these areas of the Atlantic for the next two weeks.



Looking at the 40-day, which of course, is less accurate, shows a MJO pulse perhaps entering the Western MDR (mean development region between the Lesser Antilles and Africa) by early July.

[SFLcane]

Things look quite across the basin during the next 5-7 days. A quite June really has no iinfluence in what the rest of the season might look like atleast in my view. July is a different story.

[Macrocane]

Even July can be quiet and it doesn't mean that the season will be quiet as well, look at 1998 and 2004 they were very inactive in June and July but they ended up being hyperactive.

[KWT]

Interesting though most seasons that have 16+ storms usually do get thier first storm by say the 10-12th June, the average for the top 8 seasons for example is the 31st May, the 2nd NS forms on average in 16+ NS by the end of June...

Of course seasons like 1969 and to a certain 2004 prove that isn't a steadfast rule of course!

Anyway nothing really showing on the models for the next 5-7 days, I can't imagine it staying that way for much longer given the way things are going.

[cycloneye]

In my view,depending on how many named storms form in July,that month will tell us if the season will be hyperactive or not.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS has a tropical storm making landfall in the Northern Gulf, traversing right over the oil

[CourierPR]

What's that I see east of the Windwards on that run, Ivanhater?

[Ivanhater]

What's that I see east of the Windwards on that run, Ivanhater?

Looks like a strong tropical wave that came off Africa, looking at the entire run, there are many strong waves coming off Africa that will have to be watched. June may not be quiet after all.

[vaffie]

Hey Guys! Another big hurricane season beginning! Hope we all get through it in one piece!

Looking at the latest long-range GFS model, it appears that it has been consistent over the last few runs about a low consolidating in 7 days (next Sunday) in the SW Caribbean, moving northwest towards the Yucatan and crossing into the west/central Gulf of Mexico, with it somewhere south of Louisiana and east of Texas by the 17th of June. This latest run has it south of Galveston by the morning of Sunday 20th of June. Previous runs had it closer to New Orleans/Mobile. It is something to watch.

At 240 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

At 336 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

[JTD]

Very interesting to see the beginnings of some model support for a mid-June storm.

Having at least 1 June storm, in my opinion, is a huge telltale sign as to whether the high-end season predictions will pan out. As others have said, a June storm has been a feature of the top 3-4 seasons.

[HouTXmetro]

something to keep an eye on but this is long range so take it with a grain of salt.

[barometerJane61]

In my view,depending on how many named storms form in July,that month will tell us if the season will be hyperactive or not.

I agree with that.We will surely see at least one TS in July if we are going to have a very active season.If I recall correctly,July of 2005 set a record for most named storms forming in that month

[NDG]

Euro has been painting an interesting picture later next week into early following week, a tropical wave to move NW across the Caribbean into the southern GOM and BOC, with the anticyclonic UL ridge to stay in place across western Caribbean. On its 12z run it shows a descent vorticity & weak low to form over the BOC.

[Fego]

Looks like this is the first GFS run (2010 season) that shows a low near Cabo Verde and move it toward east Florida, not like a cyclon at all, but is very interesting because can be use it as a pivot point to confirm or not some outlooks that proyect a path through the Caribbean islands. Here the 96 and 384 hours.



384 horas:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[pepeavilenho]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/118.html

[Fego]

12 UTC GFS run initiate a low also.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml