Global model runs discussion

[BigA]

For what it's worth, the 00 NAM takes the wave currently east to east southeast of the Lesser Antilles and developes it into a tropical storm in the central Caribbean within 84 hours. I doubt this, however, as the NAM is poor at forecasting tropical cyclogenesis.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_084l.gif

[Ivanhater]

For what it's worth, the 00 NAM takes the wave currently east to east southeast of the Lesser Antilles and developes it into a tropical storm in the central Caribbean within 84 hours. I doubt this, however, as the NAM is poor at forecasting tropical cyclogenesis.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_084l.gif

The Nam has wanted to develop this wave for a while now...seems plausible with the conditions ahead of it.

[Ivanhater]

For what it's worth, the 00 NAM takes the wave currently east to east southeast of the Lesser Antilles and developes it into a tropical storm in the central Caribbean within 84 hours. I doubt this, however, as the NAM is poor at forecasting tropical cyclogenesis.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_084l.gif

The Nam has wanted to develop this wave for a while now...seems plausible with the conditions ahead of it.

Also the GFS amplifies this wave but never really closes it off...GFS doesn't have that much credibility either imo

[Ivanhater]

The Nogaps starts to wrap up the same wave the NAM develops into a tropical storm..however, this is the NAM and Nogaps we are talking about.







Conditions look favorable in the Caribbean when this wave arrives though so who knows

[ronjon]

06Z GFS develops a low in the western caribbean and moves it into the BOC.

[pepeavilenho]

Nogaps....

I think wind shear is so high, it makes impossible any kind of development in that area.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS develops a tropical storm in the BOC in the long range. An area of low pressure sits in the BOC for days and develops and moves North. This run is interesting because it shows the Atlantic heating up by the end of the month.



After a closer look, it looks like the Western Caribbean area we are watching is the culprit that crosses into the BOC and sits.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF at day 10 on the 12z run has a strong wave or TD arriving at the Lesser Antilles.

[Iune]

The ECMWF at day 10 on the 12z run has a strong wave or TD arriving at the Lesser Antilles.

What about the storm in the EPac

[KWT]

FWIW the GFS also creates quite a strong system in the EPAC by 168hrs, not sure if its the same area but clearly the models are latching onto things being favourable out in the EPAC.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS develops the African wave and has a tropical storm sitting in the Bahamas

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro has a system in the Lesser Antilles and mischief in the western caribbean....a sign of things getting active

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Ivan,the miechief in the Western Caribbean that the EURO has is guess what,our friend,what may be left of 92L.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,the miechief in the Western Caribbean that the EURO has is guess what,our friend,what may be left of 92L.

Certainly is. Would not surprise me one bit to get 1 or even 2 named systems before June is up. IMO we already had a TD with 92L, but I understand the NHC wanted more consistency.

[Macrocane]

The Euro has been consistent for a couple of days, let's see if that consistensy continues for the next few days and let's see if other models support that scenario. I think we should keep an eye on 92L even if it looks very bad in the upcoming days.

[LaBreeze]

Showing some flare-up tonight - I know that's not that unusual, but interesting none the less.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF shows a new system off Africa in ten days.

[KWT]

Not quite so keen on the other wave system though it has been slightly developing in the last few days.

[gatorcane]

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Just past the mid-June mark and as expected no named systems. Model runs and other data I analyzed from the beginning of the June pretty much gave me reason to think we would not have a named system yet by now. Looking forward to the second half of June, it certainly looks like it could be another quite couple of weeks. I do note that there is a wet-phase MJO pulse expected to arrive in the Western MDR ( (mean development region between Lesser Antilles and Africa) and Eastern Caribbean in about a week or so but looks like the Western Caribbean does not see that and the Western Caribbean NOT Eastern or MDR are areas we expect development this time of year. Model runs from global models show alot of shear around in the Atlantic as well with no real development possibilities for at least another 10 days. That said, we very-well may need to continue waiting for named systems in the Atlantic (could we get none in June I wonder???) but the EPAC appears it could crank out a couple in the meantime with more favorable conditions (wet-phase of the MJO pulse is in the EPAC for the next couple of weeks with light shear).