ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

00z HWRF

[Duddy]

00z HWRF

It's like God hates the upper Gulf Coast ya know?

[wxman22]

0z GFDL takes it towards New Orleans...

[Ivanhater]

GFDL weaker

[Ivanhater]

144 hours

[Duddy]

144 hours

Seems it's moving slower. Does it make landfall in the Yucatan at all in this run?

[Ivanhater]

Barely

[Duddy]

Barely

That's no good. Just more time over the water. And again with the central Gulf positioning.

[Ivanhater]

Oh crap

[Ivanhater]

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO shifts east & stronger on this run - no good.....fingers crossed this isn't a possible scenario.

[Duddy]

:eek:

Do you know the pressure on that last frame at landfall? I see WAY too many black circles.

[BigA]

:eek:

Do you know the pressure on that last frame at landfall? I see WAY too many black circles.

From looking at the more detailed map, I think the pressure is 967 millibars.

[Cyclenall]

Wow, now we have some model consistency on a "definite" Tropical Storm and possibility hurricane (up to major) in the GOM. This latest Euro run shows a New Orleans hurricane but how strong?

[somethingfunny]

The GFS seems really consistent in not developing this system. ECM has been fairly consistent in really nailing the North-Central GOM. GFDL and HWRF I've noticed have been pretty consistent with a TS/minimal cane in the same area. Could someone please put together a census of all the models' different takes on 93L?

[paintplaye]

The GFS seems really consistent in not developing this system. ECM has been fairly consistent in really nailing the North-Central GOM. GFDL and HWRF I've noticed have been pretty consistent with a TS/minimal cane in the same area. Could someone please put together a census of all the models' different takes on 93L?

Well in general the models agree that this invest will become something tropical. You have the GFS which paints a tropical storm while you have the ECMWF which shows a pretty decent hurricane. I would not look at models right now especially for intensity as intensity is hard enough to predict even with an organized storm but from these model runs it shows that it is expected that this invest will develop. The other thing that I would pay attention to is the models predict that a trough will create a weakness in the ridge allowing for this storm to take a North to North-East turn. If and how far this storm does make that turn will be very dependent on timing and the intensity of the ridge and trough. Everything else from these models I would not put much stock into them due to the fact that we don't even have a storm yet. Once we have that then the models should be more consistent and accurate.

[Brent]

:eek:

That's sick, and it takes forever to move across the Gulf.

[HouTXmetro]

models split in two camps.....North Central Gulf or South Texas/Northern Mexico. I guess its gpnna cone down to timing and strength of the trough

[ROCK]

man I woke up for some water and the EURO hits NO with a toxic soup of oil...minimal TS probably could handle but not a full blown major.....shows the SV digging pretty deep...also....if your on the east side of this you need to be watching closely. A slow mover like this means the ridge or lack there of is weak....I could see this track going even more east...

[ROCK]

also Ivan the last CMC run was jacked....didnt you say it was last years winner??

couldnt help myself...