ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ntxwx]

Looks like 93 is deciding between Cajun or Tex-Mex

Very nice.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFDL dissipates 93L at 35 knots....love the consistency in the models

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 78.7 285./11.1
6 16.0 79.5 239./ 9.0
12 16.3 80.6 286./10.3
18 16.4 81.3 273./ 7.4
24 16.2 81.8 253./ 4.6
30 17.1 82.1 343./ 8.7
36 17.5 82.6 308./ 6.4
42 18.2 83.4 314./10.7
48 19.0 84.8 298./15.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 48 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


HOUR: .0 LONG: -78.73 LAT: 16.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.93
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -79.53 LAT: 16.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.76
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -80.56 LAT: 16.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.13
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -81.33 LAT: 16.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.62 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.92
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -81.79 LAT: 16.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.94 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.32
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -82.05 LAT: 17.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.09
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -82.57 LAT: 17.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.11
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -83.37 LAT: 18.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.29
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -84.81 LAT: 19.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.12 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.09

[HouTXmetro]

Just last night I thought we had some great consistency amongst a majority of the models....that has been thrown completely on its head today.

[KWT]

Very odd run, looks like it takes the system NW in 24-36hrs time, not quite sure why it does that but its not going to verify I'm pretty sure of that!

[Ivanhater]

Very odd run, looks like it takes the system NW in 24-36hrs time, not quite sure why it does that but its not going to verify I'm pretty sure of that!

Dissipates at the highest wind speed at 35 knots. This run seems to be an internal issue.

[jlauderdal]

18z GFDL dissipates 93L at 35 knots....love the consistency in the models

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 78.7 285./11.1
6 16.0 79.5 239./ 9.0
12 16.3 80.6 286./10.3
18 16.4 81.3 273./ 7.4
24 16.2 81.8 253./ 4.6
30 17.1 82.1 343./ 8.7
36 17.5 82.6 308./ 6.4
42 18.2 83.4 314./10.7
48 19.0 84.8 298./15.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 48 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


HOUR: .0 LONG: -78.73 LAT: 16.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.93
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -79.53 LAT: 16.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.76
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -80.56 LAT: 16.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.13
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -81.33 LAT: 16.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.62 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.92
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -81.79 LAT: 16.23 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.94 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.32
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -82.05 LAT: 17.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.09
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -82.57 LAT: 17.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.11
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -83.37 LAT: 18.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.29
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -84.81 LAT: 19.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.12 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.09

forget about the gfdl until you have at least a td, you will get crazy runs from it until it has something to really look at, also remember gfdl uses gfs data so goofy gfs will give you goofy gfdl, globals better for now until we get something to wind up, still dont like the north gulf coast idea at all.

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRF

[KWT]

Once again taking the northward option, I think the GFS suite models are somewhat overdoing the trough and how far it digs south, would be unusual to see such a trough dig that far down in a La Nina atmospheric state...

[lonelymike]

Further West...hm. Wasn't there a storm a few years ago that the models went crazy on and didn't amount to squat?

[Weatherfreak000]

Hurricane Chris of 2006 comes into mind. Cat 3 NOLA model runs

[F-dubWxGuy]

18z HWRF

I think the 18z HWRF model is good, but I have an idea of my own.

Personally I think that Invest 93L could go a little further west than what is forecasted in that model. As it approaches the Louisiana coastline, I believe it will make a turn toward the NNE to NE and make landfall near lower Plaquemines Parish near the MS River Delta and continue a northeasterly track towards the AL/FL border. I believe the ridge will take slightly longer to build in which may actually cause my forecast to be a bit off. But here's a map of what I think the track could be.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Then again, I'm not so sure it will make that sharp of a turn.

Let me know what you guys think.

BTW: this is my first post on this site!

[cycloneye]

00 UTC BAMS

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0039 UTC THU JUN 24 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100624 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100624 0000 100624 1200 100625 0000 100625 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 79.5W 17.3N 81.6W 17.7N 83.3W 18.1N 84.8W
BAMD 17.0N 79.5W 17.0N 80.9W 17.0N 82.3W 17.1N 83.8W
BAMM 17.0N 79.5W 17.0N 81.3W 17.1N 82.8W 17.2N 84.2W
LBAR 17.0N 79.5W 17.5N 81.6W 18.2N 83.9W 18.9N 86.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100626 0000 100627 0000 100628 0000 100629 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 86.2W 19.9N 88.9W 21.5N 91.2W 22.7N 93.5W
BAMD 17.2N 85.4W 17.4N 88.8W 17.8N 91.8W 17.8N 94.9W
BAMM 17.4N 85.5W 18.0N 88.5W 18.8N 91.1W 19.1N 94.0W
LBAR 20.1N 88.9W 22.0N 92.7W 25.1N 94.7W 28.3N 95.3W
SHIP 52KTS 69KTS 83KTS 90KTS
DSHP 52KTS 54KTS 30KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 79.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 77.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 75.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[NOLA2010]

18z HWRF

I think the 18z HWRF model is good, but I have an idea of my own.

Personally I think that Invest 93L could go a little further west than what is forecasted in that model. As it approaches the Louisiana coastline, I believe it will make a turn toward the NNE to NE and make landfall near lower Plaquemines Parish near the MS River Delta and continue a northeasterly track towards the AL/FL border. I believe the ridge will take slightly longer to build in which may actually cause my forecast to be a bit off. But here's a map of what I think the track could be.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Then again, I'm not so sure it will make that sharp of a turn.

Let me know what you guys think.

BTW: this is my first post on this site!

lol yeah that would have to make a very sharp turn to do that.


*edited by sg to take NOLA2010's post out from within the quotes

[lonelymike]

18z HWRF

I think the 18z HWRF model is good, but I have an idea of my own.

Personally I think that Invest 93L could go a little further west than what is forecasted in that model. As it approaches the Louisiana coastline, I believe it will make a turn toward the NNE to NE and make landfall near lower Plaquemines Parish near the MS River Delta and continue a northeasterly track towards the AL/FL border. I believe the ridge will take slightly longer to build in which may actually cause my forecast to be a bit off. But here's a map of what I think the track could be.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Then again, I'm not so sure it will make that sharp of a turn.

Let me know what you guys think.

BTW: this is my first post on this site!

Seems plausable. Only caveat your graphic looks like a late summer early fall event with the cold front coming down.

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion I think the GFDL is out to lunch this time around. The NWS seems to think "right now" the trough will
dig that far south.

Once again taking the northward option, I think the GFS suite models are somewhat overdoing the trough and how far it digs south, would be unusual to see such a trough dig that far down in a La Nina atmospheric state...

[Nederlander]

I think we need a defined LLC before models can even begin to come together a little.. plus we are many days out from a landfall along the gulf IF 93L develops.. without a definite LLC, initializations are kind of scattered to begin with.. plus i also agree that the trough wont dive as far south as some of the models are projecting.. still looks like a NOLA - Mexico threat IMO..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneRobert]

June 1995's A storm:

[Patrick99]

I'm not a big fan of the models. But with a system like this, that doesn't yet have a well-defined LLC, in the deep tropics, isn't the shallow BAM the one that will likely give the best "track?" Isn't the GFDL basically garbage until there's something definable to look at?

[vbhoutex]

18z HWRF

I think the 18z HWRF model is good, but I have an idea of my own.

Personally I think that Invest 93L could go a little further west than what is forecasted in that model. As it approaches the Louisiana coastline, I believe it will make a turn toward the NNE to NE and make landfall near lower Plaquemines Parish near the MS River Delta and continue a northeasterly track towards the AL/FL border. I believe the ridge will take slightly longer to build in which may actually cause my forecast to be a bit off. But here's a map of what I think the track could be.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Then again, I'm not so sure it will make that sharp of a turn.

Let me know what you guys think.

BTW: this is my first post on this site!

Welcome to S2K. What do you think is going to cause this turn and run for NW FL.?

[ROCK]

tonights EURO will be telling.....reminds me of Humberto...never got its act together until right up at the coast