ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Beat me to it Mark

[tailgater]

And don't forget the ETA, what are they twins? the NAM and ETA

[Brent]

Aren't the ETA and the NAM the same model?

[Ivanhater]

ouch

[KWT]

IH, what's so ridiculous? Models are being influenced by the trough - whatever forms here is eventually going to be shunted toward the NE GOM. However, with the shear present and model trends lately, looks to be pretty weak - mostly rain event.

Just the consistency ron. I don't understand how models like the euro that do develop this shunt it deep into Mexico and other off to the NE. It may develop into nothing more than a wave

Because the Euro develops the 2nd wave behind 93L, it develops the stuff just south of Jamiaca, therefore its a little bit further top the east and misses the trough connection.

Usually the GFS and the CMC both overdo how progressive troughs tend to be, but that being said if the leading wave does develop then it probably will take the northerly option...

I'd be surprised if the western wave develops though, because its got nothing at all with it right now...

[Blown Away]

IMO, I don't think it's to complicated. If 93L remains a shallow system it will go west and if it deepens that trough will influence 93L north into the GOM and I'll go with a climatology track towards the NE GOM.

[thetruesms]

Aren't the ETA and the NAM the same model?

not really - they're different models, but the NAM replaced the ETA in NCEP's suite. Any reference to ETA (i.e. the NCAR RAP site tailgater got his image from) that still works is actually the NAM. Note the NAM tag in his graphic.

[SunnyThoughts]

ouch

Ivan, how strong would you say the storm is here off the coast of LA on this model?

[KWT]

IMO, I don't think it's to complicated. If 93L remains a shallow system it will go west and if it deepens that trough will influence 93L north into the GOM and I'll go with a climatology track towards the NE GOM.

Well actually for the 2nd half of June there are more systems in the W.Gulf than the E.Gulf and most of those heads WNW/NW, so actually climatology probably slightly favours a Mexico/Texas idea rather NE Gulf...

I';m pretty confident the models are overdoing that trough, they usually do in these evolutions and back down somewhat in the 48-72hrs range.

[tailgater]

Aren't the ETA and the NAM the same model?

not really - they're different models, but the NAM replaced the ETA in NCEP's suite. Any reference to ETA (i.e. the NCAR RAP site tailgater got his image from) that still works is actually the NAM. Note the NAM tag in his graphic.

Thanks for clearing that up. Do you think that Nam run is plausible?

[tolakram]

ouch

Wait, I just realized this can be considered a NO hit. So there, for the season so far, 1. I'm expecting great things from the Canadian this year.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL around Mobile bay

HOUR:120.0 LONG: -87.59 LAT: 30.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.13 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.51

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[KWT]

GFDL takes it due west for the first 24hrs then sharply lifts it out as the upper trough comes along.

Not too strong this run so that side of it looks plausable enough.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Wondering if this thing is even going to develop.

[HURAKAN]

Wondering if this thing is even going to develop.

That's the most important step!!! lol

[South Texas Storms]

does it look better today for texas getting some rain from this system?

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[cycloneye]

18 UTC BAMS


WHXX01 KWBC 241743
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1743 UTC THU JUN 24 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100624 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100624 1800 100625 0600 100625 1800 100626 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 81.5W 16.6N 83.2W 17.3N 84.5W 17.9N 85.9W
BAMD 16.5N 81.5W 16.3N 82.9W 16.4N 84.5W 16.6N 86.1W
BAMM 16.5N 81.5W 16.5N 83.0W 17.0N 84.4W 17.5N 85.7W
LBAR 16.5N 81.5W 16.8N 83.5W 17.5N 85.8W 18.6N 88.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100626 1800 100627 1800 100628 1800 100629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 87.3W 21.8N 89.5W 24.4N 91.3W 25.5N 92.8W
BAMD 16.8N 87.8W 17.4N 90.8W 17.9N 93.6W 17.9N 97.2W
BAMM 18.2N 87.2W 20.0N 89.8W 21.7N 91.8W 22.5N 93.9W
LBAR 19.7N 90.6W 22.4N 94.1W 25.4N 95.8W 27.8N 96.7W
SHIP 50KTS 66KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 50KTS 30KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 77.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Stormcenter]

It's almost comical now. I think all of the models have covered every part of the GOM as a possible hit with this "yet to develop" wave except for maybe the Fl. West coast. I guess that will be on the next runs.