
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
757 PM AST WED JUN 23 2010
PRC009-015-035-043-057-075-095-109-111-113-123-133-149-240245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0228.100623T2357Z-100624T0245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-VILLALBA PR-ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-
MAUNABO PR-GUAYAMA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SALINAS PR-
SANTA ISABEL PR-PENUELAS PR-
757 PM AST WED JUN 23 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...CAYEY...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...ARROYO...PATILLAS...
MAUNABO...GUAYAMA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE...SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL
AND PENUELAS
* UNTIL 1045 PM AST
* AT 749 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
TO SHOW PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THIS AREA...
RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS...ALONG WITH THE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS...WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 10:45 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
757 PM AST WED JUN 23 2010
PRC009-015-035-043-057-075-095-109-111-113-123-133-149-240245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0228.100623T2357Z-100624T0245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-VILLALBA PR-ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-
MAUNABO PR-GUAYAMA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SALINAS PR-
SANTA ISABEL PR-PENUELAS PR-
757 PM AST WED JUN 23 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...CAYEY...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...ARROYO...PATILLAS...
MAUNABO...GUAYAMA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE...SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL
AND PENUELAS
* UNTIL 1045 PM AST
* AT 749 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
TO SHOW PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THIS AREA...
RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS...ALONG WITH THE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS...WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 10:45 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Caribbean - CA=92L brings some squally weather to NE Carib
Yesterday (June 22 2010) rain and temperatures in El Salvador:
Rainfall
Santa Ana 7 mm/0.28 inches
Nueva Concepcion 19 mm/0.75 inches
San Salvador 2 mm/0.08 inches
Tecoluca 44 mm/1.73 inches (yesterday highest amount)
Perquin 42 mm/1.65 inches
Temperatures
Rainfall
Santa Ana 7 mm/0.28 inches
Nueva Concepcion 19 mm/0.75 inches
San Salvador 2 mm/0.08 inches
Tecoluca 44 mm/1.73 inches (yesterday highest amount)
Perquin 42 mm/1.65 inches
Temperatures
Code: Select all
Acajutla min:22.5°C/72.5°F max:29.8°C/85.6°F
Santa Ana min:20.4°C/68.7°F max:29.5°C/85.1°F
San Salvador min:21.2°C/70.2°F max:29.0°C/84.2°F
Las Pilas min:14.1C/57.4°F max:21.8°C/71.2°F
San Miguel min:23.6°C/74.5°F max:33.0°C/91.4°F
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC015-057-059-075-095-109-111-113-123-133-240815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0060.100624T0216Z-100624T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST WED JUN 23 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
GUAYAMA
JUANA DIAZ
PONCE
SALINAS
SANTA ISABEL
PENUELAS
* UNTIL 415 AM AST THURSDAY
* AT 1005 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST FROM PENUELAS
EAST TO PATILLAS. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TWO INCHES PER HOUR HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM SPOTTERS IN PONCE. SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING HAS
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ON ROUTE 1 THAT GOES FROM PONCE TO
SANTA ISABEL IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE INABON RIVER IN PONCE
OUT OF ITS BANKS. LAS AMERICAS AVENUE IN PONCE AS WELL AS
SANTIAGO DE LOS CABALLEROS AVENUE ARE ALSO FLOODED. ROUTE 3 IN GUAYAMA
AND ARROYO ARE ALSO FLOODED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1793 6650 1794 6684 1812 6679 1805 6635
1801 6633 1805 6625 1805 6598 1798 6584
1796 6586 1789 6645
$$
ROSA
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
PRC015-057-059-075-095-109-111-113-123-133-240815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0060.100624T0216Z-100624T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST WED JUN 23 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
GUAYAMA
JUANA DIAZ
PONCE
SALINAS
SANTA ISABEL
PENUELAS
* UNTIL 415 AM AST THURSDAY
* AT 1005 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST FROM PENUELAS
EAST TO PATILLAS. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TWO INCHES PER HOUR HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM SPOTTERS IN PONCE. SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING HAS
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ON ROUTE 1 THAT GOES FROM PONCE TO
SANTA ISABEL IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE INABON RIVER IN PONCE
OUT OF ITS BANKS. LAS AMERICAS AVENUE IN PONCE AS WELL AS
SANTIAGO DE LOS CABALLEROS AVENUE ARE ALSO FLOODED. ROUTE 3 IN GUAYAMA
AND ARROYO ARE ALSO FLOODED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1793 6650 1794 6684 1812 6679 1805 6635
1801 6633 1805 6625 1805 6598 1798 6584
1796 6586 1789 6645
$$
ROSA
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Here is the train of twaves
stretching from Africa to the Caribbean mentionned by the TWD. Looks like more of a TWD of an active August month even September
Twaves everywhere in the Atlantic
, 4 to track...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 240543
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 23N77W ACROSS
CUBA TO NEAR 12N81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 8 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA NEAR 15N15W INTO THE E
ATLC WATERS TO 5N18W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION MASKING THE EXACT LOCATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W INCLUDING THE
COAST OF W AFRICA.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN
47W-52W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO 15N69W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N18W 5N30W 12N47W 10N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTING ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
25W-38W.
$$
PAW



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240543
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 23N77W ACROSS
CUBA TO NEAR 12N81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 8 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA NEAR 15N15W INTO THE E
ATLC WATERS TO 5N18W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION MASKING THE EXACT LOCATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W INCLUDING THE
COAST OF W AFRICA.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN
47W-52W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W TO 15N69W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N18W 5N30W 12N47W 10N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTING ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
25W-38W.
$$
PAW
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240954
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. A TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS EMBEDDED TUTT LOW
DEVELOPS AND THEN REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN OVERALL "DRIER" AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALSO...WITH MORE LIMITED
NOCTURNAL/DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES. FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY...AT LEAST A PART OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT...TO PRODUCE
YET AN OTHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24/16Z...WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 10KFT ALL PR TAF SITES. AFTERWARDS...
EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CONDS ACROSS ALL PR TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/18-24/22Z. LLVL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 22 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY AND SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...WITH THE RECORD 1.20 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT ACCUMULATED
AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN
YESTERDAY...2010 RANKS AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD THROUGH THE
23RD OF JUNE...WITH NEARLY DOUBLE THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION RECORDED
AT THE AIRPORT SO FAR. THIS WET WEATHER HAS NOT BEEN LIMITED TO SAN
JUAN...WITH COOPERATIVE WEATHER DATA FROM ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 50 20 20 30
STT 88 79 89 79 / 50 30 30 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710...732 AND 741.
VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710 AND 732.
&&
$$
FXCA62 TJSJ 240954
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. A TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS EMBEDDED TUTT LOW
DEVELOPS AND THEN REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN OVERALL "DRIER" AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALSO...WITH MORE LIMITED
NOCTURNAL/DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES. FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY...AT LEAST A PART OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT...TO PRODUCE
YET AN OTHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24/16Z...WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 10KFT ALL PR TAF SITES. AFTERWARDS...
EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CONDS ACROSS ALL PR TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/18-24/22Z. LLVL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 22 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY AND SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...WITH THE RECORD 1.20 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT ACCUMULATED
AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN
YESTERDAY...2010 RANKS AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD THROUGH THE
23RD OF JUNE...WITH NEARLY DOUBLE THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION RECORDED
AT THE AIRPORT SO FAR. THIS WET WEATHER HAS NOT BEEN LIMITED TO SAN
JUAN...WITH COOPERATIVE WEATHER DATA FROM ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 50 20 20 30
STT 88 79 89 79 / 50 30 30 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710...732 AND 741.
VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710 AND 732.
&&
$$
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
PRC007-021-025-029-031-033-037-051-053-061-063-069-077-085-087-089-
095-103-109-119-127-129-135-137-139-151-241530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0230.100624T1337Z-100624T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-DORADO PR-LUQUILLO PR-
PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-
FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
937 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...TOA ALTA...
SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS PIEDRAS...DORADO...LUQUILLO...
PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...GUAYNABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...
FAJARDO...CAROLINA...HUMACAO...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO
GRANDE...YABUCOA AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 1130 AM AST
* AT 935 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
11:30 AM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
PRC007-021-025-029-031-033-037-051-053-061-063-069-077-085-087-089-
095-103-109-119-127-129-135-137-139-151-241530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0230.100624T1337Z-100624T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-DORADO PR-LUQUILLO PR-
PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-
FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
937 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...TOA ALTA...
SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS PIEDRAS...DORADO...LUQUILLO...
PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...GUAYNABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...
FAJARDO...CAROLINA...HUMACAO...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO
GRANDE...YABUCOA AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 1130 AM AST
* AT 935 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
11:30 AM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
PRC019-041-045-047-105-143-145-241645-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0231.100624T1446Z-100624T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIDRA PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-NARANJITO PR-
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
1046 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CIDRA...COROZAL...COMERIO...BARRANQUITAS...NARANJITO...VEGA ALTA
AND VEGA BAJA
* UNTIL 1245 PM AST
* AT 1043 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
12:45 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
PRC019-041-045-047-105-143-145-241645-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0231.100624T1446Z-100624T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIDRA PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-NARANJITO PR-
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
1046 AM AST THU JUN 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
CIDRA...COROZAL...COMERIO...BARRANQUITAS...NARANJITO...VEGA ALTA
AND VEGA BAJA
* UNTIL 1245 PM AST
* AT 1043 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
12:45 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
134 PM AST THU JUN 24 2010
PRC011-023-055-059-067-079-083-093-097-121-125-153-241930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0233.100624T1734Z-100624T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
LAS MARIAS PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
LAJAS PR-ANASCO PR-
134 PM AST THU JUN 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...LAS
MARIAS...GUAYANILLA...GUANICA...CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ...LAJAS AND
ANASCO
* UNTIL 330 PM AST
* AT 133 PM AST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
03:30 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
134 PM AST THU JUN 24 2010
PRC011-023-055-059-067-079-083-093-097-121-125-153-241930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0233.100624T1734Z-100624T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
LAS MARIAS PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
LAJAS PR-ANASCO PR-
134 PM AST THU JUN 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...LAS
MARIAS...GUAYANILLA...GUANICA...CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ...LAJAS AND
ANASCO
* UNTIL 330 PM AST
* AT 133 PM AST... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
03:30 PM AST.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
The last paragrafh says it all about how wet it has been in Puerto Rico.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST THU JUN 24 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW ALMOST 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL BE FOUND ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS BY MONDAY AND WILL DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL LIKELY TAKE ITS PLACE NEAR
THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH AROUND 59 WEST WILL DRIFT ACROSS
PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE FOUND OVER CUBA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS
BEING FOLLOWED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING PRECEDED BY DEEP MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT NOT
CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS...OR SAINT JOHN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LEFT FROM ONE QUARTER TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY. THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE CENTRAL ALMOST WESTERN CARIBBEAN LOW.
THESE EFFECTS WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW...BUT MODELS STILL PROMISE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE THAT FOLLOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. THE WAVE MAY SLOW DOWN DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN THAT IS MOVING
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...AND THE MODELS INDICATE THIS AS WELL WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES.
BUT THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND
THE WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE THAT WILL TEASE WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THEN THE FLOW OUT OF THE TROPICS WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS THAT WILL TURN ALMOST SOUTHERLY WILL DRAG AIR RICH WITH
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND KEEP THE WET SCENARIO HEALTHY. THE
PRESENCE OF THE TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO ENHANCE ALL
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD TAPER OFF ON MONDAY...BUT THAT IS LESS CERTAIN
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT TREND. MORE RAIN AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
PASSING SHOWERS...BUT IMPROVING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...YESTERDAYS RAIN BROUGHT THE TOTAL FOR THE YEAR TO DATE
TO 38.19 INCHES...MAKING 2010 THE WETTEST ON RECORD SO FAR. THE
NEXT WETTEST YEAR TO DATE WAS 1956 WITH 37.43 INCHES. EVEN IF NO
RAIN FELL FROM NOW ON...2010 WOULD RETAIN THIS TITLE WELL INTO JULY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST THU JUN 24 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW ALMOST 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL BE FOUND ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS BY MONDAY AND WILL DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL LIKELY TAKE ITS PLACE NEAR
THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH AROUND 59 WEST WILL DRIFT ACROSS
PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE FOUND OVER CUBA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS
BEING FOLLOWED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING PRECEDED BY DEEP MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT NOT
CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS...OR SAINT JOHN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LEFT FROM ONE QUARTER TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY. THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE CENTRAL ALMOST WESTERN CARIBBEAN LOW.
THESE EFFECTS WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW...BUT MODELS STILL PROMISE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE THAT FOLLOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. THE WAVE MAY SLOW DOWN DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN THAT IS MOVING
MUCH MORE SLOWLY...AND THE MODELS INDICATE THIS AS WELL WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES.
BUT THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND
THE WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE THAT WILL TEASE WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THEN THE FLOW OUT OF THE TROPICS WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS THAT WILL TURN ALMOST SOUTHERLY WILL DRAG AIR RICH WITH
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND KEEP THE WET SCENARIO HEALTHY. THE
PRESENCE OF THE TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO ENHANCE ALL
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD TAPER OFF ON MONDAY...BUT THAT IS LESS CERTAIN
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT TREND. MORE RAIN AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
PASSING SHOWERS...BUT IMPROVING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.CLIMATE...YESTERDAYS RAIN BROUGHT THE TOTAL FOR THE YEAR TO DATE
TO 38.19 INCHES...MAKING 2010 THE WETTEST ON RECORD SO FAR. THE
NEXT WETTEST YEAR TO DATE WAS 1956 WITH 37.43 INCHES. EVEN IF NO
RAIN FELL FROM NOW ON...2010 WOULD RETAIN THIS TITLE WELL INTO JULY.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST THU JUN 24 2010
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NEAR 25N 63W WILL DIG SOUTHWEST TOWARD PR AND
HISPANIOLA OVR THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W WILL MOVE WNW
ACROSS PR/USVI SAT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVR PR THIS EVENING KEEPING
THINGS QUIET OVR LAND FOR A CHANGE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS NOTED OVR
THE BVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE
NRMS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WRN HALF OF PR WITH SCT TSRA MAINLY ACROSS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PR GIVEN NE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF WAVE. WHILE SUBSIDENCE
IS TYPICALLY OBSERVED AHEAD OF WAVES AND SOME IS INDICATED WITH
THIS ONE TOMORROW...DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE FACTORS.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES SHARPLY SAT MORNING AS WAVE
INTERACTS WITH TUTT LOW. ANTICIPATING A VERY ACTIVE DAY SAT WITH
NMRS/WIDESPREAD TSRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS AS K
INDICES AND PW VALUES RISE TO NEAR 40 AND 2.35 INCHES RESPECTIVELY
AND STEERING WINDS BECOME LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK THOUGH LIKE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL FALL OVER NW PR WHICH WOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL AS
THIS AREA IS NOT AS FLOOD PRONE AS ERN PR IS. STILL VERY ACTIVE
SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND SUN AGAIN OVER LAND. SHARP
DRYING EXPECTED FOR MON WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VCSH AND SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK AT LEAST
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. BETWEEN 25/16Z TO 25/21Z...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ. IN
ADDITION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF PR
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL/REGIONAL BUOYS
INDICATING SEAS BELOW 7 FT. ALL SCA CANCELLED.
&&
.CLIMATE...7.27 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT LMM INTL
AIRPORT THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THIS RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST
JUNE ON RECORD TO DATE. 2010 ALSO RANKS AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD THROUGH THE 23RD OF JUNE...WITH NEARLY DOUBLE THE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION RECORDED AT THE AIRPORT SO FAR. THIS WET WEATHER HAS
NOT BEEN LIMITED TO SAN JUAN...WITH COOPERATIVE WEATHER DATA FROM
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RUNNING
APPROXIMATELY 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST THU JUN 24 2010
.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NEAR 25N 63W WILL DIG SOUTHWEST TOWARD PR AND
HISPANIOLA OVR THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W WILL MOVE WNW
ACROSS PR/USVI SAT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVR PR THIS EVENING KEEPING
THINGS QUIET OVR LAND FOR A CHANGE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS NOTED OVR
THE BVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE
NRMS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WRN HALF OF PR WITH SCT TSRA MAINLY ACROSS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PR GIVEN NE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF WAVE. WHILE SUBSIDENCE
IS TYPICALLY OBSERVED AHEAD OF WAVES AND SOME IS INDICATED WITH
THIS ONE TOMORROW...DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE FACTORS.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES SHARPLY SAT MORNING AS WAVE
INTERACTS WITH TUTT LOW. ANTICIPATING A VERY ACTIVE DAY SAT WITH
NMRS/WIDESPREAD TSRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS AS K
INDICES AND PW VALUES RISE TO NEAR 40 AND 2.35 INCHES RESPECTIVELY
AND STEERING WINDS BECOME LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK THOUGH LIKE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL FALL OVER NW PR WHICH WOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL AS
THIS AREA IS NOT AS FLOOD PRONE AS ERN PR IS. STILL VERY ACTIVE
SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND SUN AGAIN OVER LAND. SHARP
DRYING EXPECTED FOR MON WITH A MARKED IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. VCSH AND SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK AT LEAST
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. BETWEEN 25/16Z TO 25/21Z...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ. IN
ADDITION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF PR
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL/REGIONAL BUOYS
INDICATING SEAS BELOW 7 FT. ALL SCA CANCELLED.
&&
.CLIMATE...7.27 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT LMM INTL
AIRPORT THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THIS RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST
JUNE ON RECORD TO DATE. 2010 ALSO RANKS AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD THROUGH THE 23RD OF JUNE...WITH NEARLY DOUBLE THE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION RECORDED AT THE AIRPORT SO FAR. THIS WET WEATHER HAS
NOT BEEN LIMITED TO SAN JUAN...WITH COOPERATIVE WEATHER DATA FROM
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RUNNING
APPROXIMATELY 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.
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Re: Caribbean - CA=92L brings some squally weather to NE Carib
Yesterday was the warmest day of the month in Santa Ana and San Salvador, and the westernmost third of the country didn't register rainfall, these are the observations from June 23 2010:
Rainfall
San Salvador 30 mm/1.18 inches
Vado Marin 56 mm/2.20 inches
San Miguel 28 mm/1.10 inches
La Union 6 mm/0.24 inches
Temperatures
Rainfall
San Salvador 30 mm/1.18 inches
Vado Marin 56 mm/2.20 inches
San Miguel 28 mm/1.10 inches
La Union 6 mm/0.24 inches
Temperatures
Code: Select all
Acajutla min:23.9°C/75.0°F max:30.5°C/86.9°F
Santa Ana min:19.5°C/67.1°F max:31.6°C/88.9°F
San Salvador min:20.6°C/69.1°F max:31.1°C/88.0°F
Las Pilas min:13.7°C/56.7°F max:20.5°C/68.9°F
San Miguel min:23.7°C/74.7°F max:34.3°C/93.7°F
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Good morning.Another rather wet weekend for the NE Caribbean.
FXCA62 TJSJ 250942
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST FRI JUN 25 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED NEAR 23.7 NORTH 63.4 WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOUTHWEST AND CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN WEST AND SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
WILL STILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS LOCALLY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEEBLE ATTEMPT AT BRIEF "DRYING" EARLY TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT LEFTOVER DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARD/INTO
THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND WIND SURGE
(WITH LEADING EDGE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOWER LEVEL REFLECTION OF TUTT) IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH EFFECTS PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE
MAY ACTUALLY MISS THE FA...THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT...TO PRODUCE YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS... WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
AT THIS TIME...AN OVERALL "DRIER" AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY ALSO.
&&
.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLD DECK OF 8-10KFT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...PREVAILING VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES...EXCLUDING TJMZ AND TJPS...WHERE
TEMPORARY MVFR...OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
25/16Z-25/22Z. ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN A
QUICK PASSING SHRA OR VCSH. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO
20 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
FXCA62 TJSJ 250942
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST FRI JUN 25 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED NEAR 23.7 NORTH 63.4 WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOUTHWEST AND CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN WEST AND SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
WILL STILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS LOCALLY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEEBLE ATTEMPT AT BRIEF "DRYING" EARLY TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT LEFTOVER DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARD/INTO
THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND WIND SURGE
(WITH LEADING EDGE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOWER LEVEL REFLECTION OF TUTT) IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH EFFECTS PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE
MAY ACTUALLY MISS THE FA...THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT...TO PRODUCE YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS... WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
AT THIS TIME...AN OVERALL "DRIER" AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY ALSO.
&&
.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLD DECK OF 8-10KFT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...PREVAILING VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES...EXCLUDING TJMZ AND TJPS...WHERE
TEMPORARY MVFR...OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
25/16Z-25/22Z. ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN A
QUICK PASSING SHRA OR VCSH. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO
20 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED.
A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Yellow alert have been requiered for the Northern Leewars islands by Meteo-France Guadeloupe as this active tropical wave should bring already this afternoon strong showers and tstorms. This rain event should continue Sunday always given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
cycloneye wrote:
Another active system churning near the NE carib.
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