ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#761 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:34 pm

southerngale wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:I would just like to remind everyone in the central gulf onward....the stronger 93L can get the more likely itll more more northernly....and it does appear very near TD status.



If you western gulf people claim your EURO huggers than no doubt after Katrina i'm a GFDL hugger. It is consistently the only model sniffing out the toughest solutions IMO. So long as the GFDL shows it making the Central Gulf we should have NO Complacency, and anyone who lives in that region should know the EURO is generally west biased. It's still very early and no trend towards South Texas has developed by any means.


I believe there's been a few people who said they were "Euro huggers" - don't generalize everyone like that. Maybe most people, in all regions of the Gulf, favor the Euro solution because if it hits Northern Mexico or Deep South Texas (sorry guys down there), it avoids the oil slick.

Of course, with such a huge difference in model runs all along the GOM coast, everyone should be paying attention and nobody should be complacent.



I am one of the few people who hug the EURO.....I wont lie....its been showing the same solution over and over again....so how is the EURO west bias..I didnt realize the model had AI.... :wink:

No one here is saying to be complacent...we are just pointing out the trend,,,
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#762 Postby Big O » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:38 pm

12z CMC (Canadian) has landfall very near Brownsville, Texas. Two runs in a row with same general track. This combined with the fact that other models are indicating a Northern Mexico or Southern Texas track is indicative of a growing consensus that this system will make landfall along the western Gulf coast, not the northern or eastern Gulf coasts. I'm not saying its impossible for this system to impact the central or eastern Gulf coasts; I just don't think it is the most likely outcome. My best guess is landfall between Tampico and Corpus Christi, Texas, most likely over northern Mexico, about 75 miles south of Brownsville.

That being said, let's see if the 12z European throws us for a loop or maintains is relative run-to-run consistency.

THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS MERELY MY AMATEUR OPINION. PLEASE CONSULT OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT PRODUCTS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM.
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#763 Postby southerngale » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:42 pm

:uarrow: Didn't the 0z CMC show Central Louisiana?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#764 Postby bigdan33 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:44 pm

The 12z gfdl into florida panhandle and stronger than last run
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Re:

#765 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:44 pm

southerngale wrote::uarrow: Didn't the 0z CMC show Central Louisiana?



12z is NMEx...0Z was western LA....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#766 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:46 pm

The GFDL vs the EURO in 30 minutes....dont miss the fight of the century!! :lol:
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Re: Re:

#767 Postby Big O » Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:47 pm

ROCK wrote:
southerngale wrote::uarrow: Didn't the 0z CMC show Central Louisiana?



12z is NMEx...0Z was western LA....


Here is link to what I was referring to regarding the 0z CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#768 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:04 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#769 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:05 pm

12z GFDL

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hwrf

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#770 Postby Nederlander » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:10 pm

everyone seems to be concerned about where this system will go.. but nobody has really mentioned the fact that none of these models take this past a cat. 1 hurricane, and most take it to a TS and thats it.. i'd welcome a cat 1 or tropical storm..
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#771 Postby Jagno » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:13 pm

Nederlander wrote:everyone seems to be concerned about where this system will go.. but nobody has really mentioned the fact that none of these models take this past a cat. 1 hurricane, and most take it to a TS and thats it.. i'd welcome a cat 1 or tropical storm..

Nederlander; It's apparent that you are not currently affected by the oil spill or could be if a tropical system were to enter the Gulf or your opinion may not remain as such.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#772 Postby Big O » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:14 pm

12z European appears to show system moving across Yucatan Peninsula and into BOC. A trough appears to be digging slightly at 72h, but I don't think it will lift system out. My best guess as to European outcome is Mexican coast far enough south of Brownsville to impart any meaningful effects except for some showers.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#773 Postby Big O » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:15 pm

...for deep south Texas.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#774 Postby Big O » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:25 pm

Apparent landfall of weak system along central Mexican Gulf coast, according to 12z European.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#775 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:25 pm

Dynamical

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#776 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:28 pm

The 18 UTC BAMS.

WHXX01 KWBC 251825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100625 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100625 1800 100626 0600 100626 1800 100627 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 82.9W 17.7N 84.9W 18.9N 86.9W 19.7N 88.6W
BAMD 16.9N 82.9W 17.4N 84.6W 18.2N 86.3W 19.0N 87.7W
BAMM 16.9N 82.9W 17.7N 84.7W 18.7N 86.4W 19.6N 87.9W
LBAR 16.9N 82.9W 17.5N 84.5W 18.4N 86.5W 19.4N 88.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS 58KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100627 1800 100628 1800 100629 1800 100630 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 90.1W 22.4N 92.3W 23.1N 94.3W 23.3N 96.4W
BAMD 19.9N 88.9W 22.1N 90.2W 24.0N 90.9W 25.7N 91.4W
BAMM 20.7N 89.4W 22.9N 91.2W 24.4N 92.4W 25.5N 93.5W
LBAR 20.7N 89.8W 23.6N 92.2W 26.8N 93.3W 29.6N 91.9W
SHIP 65KTS 74KTS 76KTS 71KTS
DSHP 32KTS 41KTS 42KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 82.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 82.1W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 81.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#777 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:35 pm

And the pretty NAM :D

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#778 Postby MortisFL » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:38 pm

GFDL and HWRF are serious about the gradual NE turn. The rest are either due north or west into Mexico. Man talk about a consenus, :lol:
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Re:

#779 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:39 pm

MortisFL wrote:GFDL and HWRF are serious about the gradual NE turn. The rest are either due north or west into Mexico. Man talk about a consenus, :lol:


Both those models haven't been run off the true center yet so the results are sketchy at best. The runs to watch will be the first ones done after the true center is initialized.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#780 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:43 pm

18z Dynamical...make up your mind!

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