ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, yes and my guess the NHC will adjust a lot....

I got to hand it to you bro you where saying it and I was saying but the EURO....lesson learned...

Hell, I'm not smart, just stubborn lol. I just learned that the tropics are going to do what it wants, not what we say

[ROCK]

I would like to hear from the pros right now. But I'm guessing they are busy even at 1:30 in the morning here, on the phones with there clients discussing what kind of plans they need to be making right now. Yes it is still over the Yucatan Peninsula. But, it takes a lot of man power and time to get people off of the rigs in the Gulf. These companies also have to make plans with hotels for emergency times. I know that since I work at a hotel that usually has people that work for Halliburton, and Petroleum Helicopters stay there during Hurricanes.

What I would like to know from the Pros right now is, what are there feelings on what Alex should be doing in the next week?

that aint going to happen tonight...they look at the models same as us....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well it looks like the euro did shift a little but like Ivan said moves Alex on a completely different heading which is most important because shows the ridge not as strong this go around. But as we all know come tomorrow nights runs they could weaken the trof and rebuild the ridge just as easily. As others have said we could be in for some long nights ahead with lots of model flopping God this is fun

[ROCK]

IMO, the trend has been set and now the EURO is seeing the weakening ridge as the GFS has seen....All of dynamics are seeing it also....ridge aint holding with these runs...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New version of the GFS well South!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_126l.gif

[americanre1]

New version of the GFS well South!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_126l.gif

That is because it spits Alex into two separate entities. Don't see that happening.

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[KFDM Meteorologist]

Still thinks Alex stays well south.

[americanre1]

Still thinks Alex stays well south.

Really hope you're right. But I just don't see it.

[Nederlander]

Still thinks Alex stays well south.

I gotta tell you, I like the 'stick to your guns mentality' .. here's to hoping you are right on this.. I know you love the euro.. will be interesting to see if tomorrows 2pm run changes any.. hell for all I know.. tomorrow afternoon all the models could be south mexico again and we will all be discussing what the hell happened

EDIT: @KFDM MET is Greg thinking the same thing you are?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

[quote="ROCK"]IMO, the trend has been set and now the EURO is seeing the weakening ridge as the GFS has seen....All of dynamics are seeing it also....ridge aint holding with these runs...[/quote

Rock, "ridge aint holding with THESE RUNS", sums it up best. Tomorrow night they could very well flip back to an all mexico landfall showing the ridge not weakening as much or at all. Think monday afternoon is the day to really see how strong the front is and how much progress it will make south. Tomorrow will be just pure speculation. Until then I need get my butt in bed, the wife thinks I am insane.

[paintplaye]

Still thinks Alex stays well south.

I agree at this point this COULD just be one of those runs where the models have a hiccup and go north. If this continues tomorrow, well then we may have to rethink the staying south situation. Also KFDM what heading do you believe Alex currently has? I know the last couple of cords have showed a NW heading but do you believe that is currently continuing or is the convection just throwing me off?

[Nederlander]

Still thinks Alex stays well south.

I agree at this point this COULD just be one of those runs where the models have a hiccup and go north. If this continues tomorrow, well then we may have to rethink the staying south situation. Also KFDM what heading do you believe Alex currently has? I know the last couple of cords have showed a NW heading but do you believe that is currently continuing or is the convection just throwing me off?

Not speaking for KFDM MET here, just my own opinion.. I think we are just witnessing some wobbles going on.. earlier coordinates suggested a NW heading, but the latest coordinates show a WNW heading..

[ROCK]

IMO, the trend has been set and now the EURO is seeing the weakening ridge as the GFS has seen....All of dynamics are seeing it also....ridge aint holding with these runs...[/quote

Rock, "ridge aint holding with THESE RUNS", sums it up best. Tomorrow night they could very well flip back to an all mexico landfall showing the ridge not weakening as much or at all. Think monday afternoon is the day to really see how strong the front is and how much progress it will make south. Tomorrow will be just pure speculation. Until then I need get my butt in bed, the wife thinks I am insane.

yeah the warden already thinks I am out of my mind this time of year. I tell her its just 3 months then I return back to normal......

[paintplaye]

Still thinks Alex stays well south.

I agree at this point this COULD just be one of those runs where the models have a hiccup and go north. If this continues tomorrow, well then we may have to rethink the staying south situation. Also KFDM what heading do you believe Alex currently has? I know the last couple of cords have showed a NW heading but do you believe that is currently continuing or is the convection just throwing me off?

Not speaking for KFDM MET here, just my own opinion.. I think we are just witnessing some wobbles going on.. earlier coordinates suggested a NW heading, but the latest coordinates show a WNW heading..

I would say the same but it has been this way for the last couple of hours I honestly believe this is on a NW track or at least between a WNW-NW track.

[Nederlander]

I would say the same but it has been this way for the last couple of hours I honestly believe this is on a NW track or at least between a WNW-NW track.

yeah.. probably somewhere between 275-290

[Ivanhater]

For comparison on the new euro..look at the NW heading between 48 hours deep in the BOC to 96 hours...that is a complete change of heading from the previous runs

48 hours



96 hours

[ROCK]

Ivan the EURO now is probably our left outlier with the GFS the right......NHC will blend it with an uptick of the cone further north...

[Nederlander]

Ivan, can you post a graphic showing the landfall from the 12z euro and now the 0z Euro? southerngale and myself would be super appreciative

[Ivanhater]

12z run heads due west in the deep boc

[Ivanhater]

Ivan the EURO now is probably our left outlier with the GFS the right......NHC will blend it with an uptick of the cone further north...

I think the biggest change on this run is the heading. Last night and this afternoon had the ridge shoving Alex due west deep in the BOC. Tonight shows a pattern change with NW heading as the ridge breaks down...