ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
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Re: Re:
Ikester wrote:rockyman wrote:On the old GFS, the ridge builds back in between 48 and 72 hours...pushing Alex back to the west
It looks like that's what this run is going to try and do. Anybody else see a shift to the left this run?
Stalls it then moves it a little north. Looks like a mid Texas coast hit.
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- Portastorm
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
Actually, 12z GFS stalls Alex about 80-100 miles east of Brownsville through 96 hours. Interesting. Probably would mean copious rains for SE Texas/La.
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- Hurricane Andrew
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Re:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Can i have a link to the GFS please?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml
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- Portastorm
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
Wow ... crazy run. After stalling Alex for a day and a half ... looks to rebuild the ridge enough to force Alex into the Corpus area. Sheesh ... hope that doesn't pan out.
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Re: Re:
paintplaye wrote:Hurricane Andrew wrote:Can i have a link to the GFS please?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml
Thanks. Very interesting, especaily the stalling.
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Re:
rockyman wrote:GFS--still creeping northward toward middle TX coast in 5 days!
If this happens the amount of rain produced would be unheard of. Also the intensity would rocket. Don't think it will happen though.
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- Portastorm
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
Oops ... Corpus-schmorpus ... 12z GFS says "watch me do a Rita."
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
Portastorm wrote:Oops ... Corpus-schmorpus ... 12z GFS says "watch me do a Rita."
Are you referring to the largest evacuation in US history (~3 million left Houston), the 100 people who died during the evacuation or the millions in preparation? It is so important for us (weather people) to figure this out. Thankfully, the gfs is the only model that shows this. Now if the dynamical models were split even steven, then I'd throw my hands up.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
Ikester wrote:Portastorm wrote:Oops ... Corpus-schmorpus ... 12z GFS says "watch me do a Rita."
Are you referring to the largest evacuation in US history (~3 million left Houston), the 100 people who died during the evacuation or the millions in preparation? It is so important for us (weather people) to figure this out. Thankfully, the gfs is the only model that shows this. Now if the dynamical models were split even steven, then I'd throw my hands up.
Thankfully is right. As you know, SE Texas is still painfully recovering from Rita and Ike. A track like the 12z GFS suggests would be downright horrific for a lot of good folks. Still, I don't like seeing it ... even on a GFS run.
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12z GFS looks very similar to many o the 06z GFS ensemble members, they go WNW for 6hrs, then NW/NNW then a brief bend back westwards followed by the ridge weakening and the system coming back northwards again towards Texas...
Thats the main difference, the ECM and a few other models keep the upper ridge strong enough.
Thats the main difference, the ECM and a few other models keep the upper ridge strong enough.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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I think all it will take is for the 12Z run of the ECMWF to also show Houston/Galveston hit, like the GFS and that certainly may be enough for a significant adjustment in NHC track. But if that ECMWF along with the majority of the other models keep the ridge strong and Alex into Mexico, don't look for much of an adjustment. 12Z ECMWF won't be running for a few more hours though.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:I think all it will take is for the 12Z run of the ECMWF to also show Houston/Galveston hit, like the GFS and that certainly may be enough for a significant adjustment in NHC track. But if that ECMWF along with the majority of the other models keep the ridge strong and Alex into Mexico, don't look for much of an adjustment. 12Z ECMWF won't be running for a few more hours though.
100% agree.
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