ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[rockyman]

12z CMC:

[cycloneye]

12Z ECMWF won't be running for a few more hours though

You dont have to wait a few hours as it will start to come out around 2:30 PM EDT.

[paintplaye]

12z CMC:

If the Euro has a big shift north well then *%$#....

[cycloneye]

So is now up to the ECMWF to be the decider.

[gatorcane]

I wonder what the parallel 12Z GFS model will do with Alex? Will that be running soon?

[Ivanhater]

I wonder what the parallel 12Z GFS model will do with Alex? Will that be running soon?

The 06 run of the new gfs did shift north to Brownsville

[Ikester]

Yeah, if the Euro comes in with a central or upper Texas coast landfall, The cone will be shifted hundreds of miles northward in one fowl swoop. Anything other than the Euro showing that, little change will be noted.

[KWT]

Well the CMC is going to have to go NNE to landfall there, thats going to have to be a big synotpic flip and the ridge will have to totally breakdown...which I'd feel pretty confident won't happen in near July...

I'll have a look at what the CMC/GFS does in the next 12hrs, I heard the GFS goes WNW then shoots nearly NNW, I'd be shocked if that happened.

[Hurricane Andrew]

When does the 12z ECWMF come out?

[Ivanhater]

12z HWRF has brownsville...but can't tell if it goes inland...

[cycloneye]

12z CMC Animation

[Ivanhater]

Is further north though

[Weatherfreak000]

At this point if it doesn't make landfall you cant necessarily assume it means it'll even to to Texas.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF a lot further north

[KWT]

Yeah the HWRF is a good deal further north, looks like it comes in closer to where Bret came in during 1999, probably the best thing that could happen I'd guess...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah the HWRF is a good deal further north, looks like it comes in closer to where Bret came in during 1999, probably the best thing that could happen I'd guess...

Actually the HWRF solution is a little further north than where Bret moved ashore, very near Corpus Christi..

[perk]

HWRF a lot further north

Great graphic Ivan, no doubt that it's a lot further north.

[Ikester]

Man, if the Euro shows any movement north, that cone is going to surge north. Houston, we may have a problem!

[Ivanhater]

GFDL still odd as hell

[KWT]

Ah ok fair enough, still looks like it makes Alex a solid hurricane upon landfall, the 12z ECM is going to be very interesting indeed, Alex sure does have to climb up still to meet some of those northerly projections!