ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yeah exactly jinftl its really going to have to pick up latitude soon if some of these models are going to verify.

The steering currents have weakened though thats for sure which maybe a reflection that the system is about to lift out to the NW a little more.

[Macrocane]

The outer bands of Alex proudeced heavy rainfall in El Salvador yesterday the highest amount was 162.2 mm/6.4 inches, this is the map with the accumulated rain:

[ConvergenceZone]

Yesterday morning I was thinking that it may not even clear Mexico due to it's movement. Now it looks like that's going to happen. Now the question is, how far south will it be in the BOC?. Let's just hope it doesn't hit a more populated area of Mexico once it comes ashore there.

[crimi481]

Yes - the over all center is going N.NW - and I feel wiill reform close to N.W tip Yucatan. It hurts to say it -but I think tract more N and E than most thinking.

[Ntxwx]

Yesterday morning I was thinking that it may not even clear Mexico due to it's movement. Now it looks like that's going to happen. Now the question is, how far south will it be in the BOC?. Let's just hope it doesn't hit a more populated area of Mexico once it comes ashore there.

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[ConvergenceZone]

?

Hehe sorry, that was bad wording on my part. What I meant to say is that yesterday morning I didn't think it would even emerge in the BOC, and now it looks like it will. I just hope once it comes ashore again, that it doesn't hit a populated area of Mexico.

[x-y-no]

Yes - the over all center is going N.NW - and I feel wiill reform close to N.W tip Yucatan. It hurts to say it -but I think tract more N and E than most thinking.

No.

When a system has a well-defined surface circulation, as Alex still does, you don't get sudden relocations of hundreds of miles.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Just wondering, has a storm ever weakened to a TD then re-strengthened to a hurricane? Thanks in advance.

[Ntxwx]

?

Hehe sorry, that was bad wording on my part. What I meant to say is that yesterday morning I didn't think it would even emerge in the BOC, and now it looks like it will. I just hope once it comes ashore again, that it doesn't hit a populated area of Mexico.

Oh lol! I thought you were saying it isn't going to emerge in the BOC/GOM it will dig straight into mexico that left me dumbfounded! sorry I understand now...

[jinftl]

The motion went from a heading of 295 deg (at most) per the last advisory to a heading more like 325 or 335 deg??? We will see what 2pm advisory from NHC says...

Yes - the over all center is going N.NW - and I feel wiill reform close to N.W tip Yucatan. It hurts to say it -but I think tract more N and E than most thinking.

[SoupBone]

Yes - the over all center is going N.NW - and I feel wiill reform close to N.W tip Yucatan. It hurts to say it -but I think tract more N and E than most thinking.

This is absurd with no evidence at all to support this. Could it take a path like Audrey of 57? Sure I guess so but so far there is no indication that the center is reforming near the tip of the Yucatan.

[lester]

The motion went from a heading of 295 deg (at most) per the last advisory to a heading more like 325 or 335 deg??? We will see what 2pm advisory from NHC says...

Yes - the over all center is going N.NW - and I feel wiill reform close to N.W tip Yucatan. It hurts to say it -but I think tract more N and E than most thinking.

No intermediates since warnings were cancelled. Next advisory at 5.

[Ikester]

Keep in mind that these things can turn on a dime. Looking at the vis, I'd say a heading of 285 or so is prudent...slightly north of west.

[KWT]

Just wondering, has a storm ever weakened to a TD then re-strengthened to a hurricane? Thanks in advance.

Many many many times would be the answer to that question, even some of the biggies have done this before!

System no where near 325-335, probably about 300 at the moment and it has slowed down over the last few hours in response to the steering currents weakening...

Will be over water soon though.

[Ikester]

I hate when storms form because I become paralyzed at the computer and can't move. Anybody else get that way?

[Andrew92]

Just wondering, has a storm ever weakened to a TD then re-strengthened to a hurricane? Thanks in advance.

The 1996 version of Dolly and Hurricane Keith from 2000 are two examples very close to Alex that weakened to a depression, then re-strengthened to a hurricane. And if forecasts are right, Alex will have more time over water than these two and could therefore easily get stronger.

Also, further away, Jeanne pulled off the same thing in 2004. And she became a C3 before landfall as we all know.

-Andrew92

[crimi481]

Usuall is a slowdown - when change direction in process

[Hurricane Andrew]

OK. Thanks.

[Ikester]

Usuall is a slowdown - when change direction in process

True, but there could be other factors at work here...

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear in high resolution imagery that the center has turned a bit more WNW maybe 295 in the last 2 frames, now whether that is a jog or a gradual turn we'll have to wait and see.