ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ntxwx]

Yeah the HWRF is a good deal further north, looks like it comes in closer to where Bret came in during 1999, probably the best thing that could happen I'd guess...

Actually the HWRF solution is a little further north than where Bret moved ashore, very near Corpus Christi..

This looks VERY reasonable!

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFDL still odd as hell

Yeah, the GFDL does look very odd. It seems to show a very disorganized and strange-looking system throughout the course of the run.

[KWT]

That GFDL looks totally unrealistic, I'm really not sure what it is seeing with that solution to be honest, I'm guessing it tries to reform the system in that convective blowup to the north or something?

[lrak]

Yeah the HWRF is a good deal further north, looks like it comes in closer to where Bret came in during 1999, probably the best thing that could happen I'd guess...

Actually the HWRF solution is a little further north than where Bret moved ashore, very near Corpus Christi..

This looks VERY reasonable!

I hope not, I like the comforts of home.

[xironman]

ECM 48 Hours

[ROCK]

Went to church and had to watch this thread from my blackberry....is that wrong?


anyway, the models keep trending north.....eventually they willl settle down one would hope...trend is north and EURO coming out soon

[Ikester]

Euro will be out in about 30 minutes.

[ROCK]

for some out there they can see it running....

[Ivanhater]

looks like euro is north Mexico

[KWT]

The HWRF isn't bad in terms of its 18z placement compared to the Sat.imagery, the only difference is the system looks a little slower then it is modelled and perhaps a touch to ofar north, nothing too outlandish yet but we shall see how the position stacks up at 00z because the HWRF lifts this out nearly NNW when it exits land...

I think thats the big problem with the northerly models, they lurch NW/NNW right from the moment it reaches water, if we don't see that then they may already be in trouble.

[Ikester]

looks like euro is north Mexico

Well Ivan, this is my model of choice. You can't ask for much more than the Euro is giving IMO. Consistency Consistency Consistency...

[xironman]

Holds serve Mexico. This one is going down to the wire.

[deltadog03]

EURO has been trending north the last few runs....if your in TX I wouldn't count this out that it heads your way.

[ROCK]

looks like euro is north Mexico

Well Ivan, this is my model of choice. You can't ask for much more than the Euro is giving IMO. Consistency Consistency Consistency...

would like to see the run....the suspense....

[ROCK]

how much further south in that run? looks like it stayed the same...

[Annie Oakley]

Went to church and had to watch this thread from my blackberry....is that wrong?


anyway, the models keep trending north.....eventually they willl settle down one would hope...trend is north and EURO coming out soon

LOL! Believe me-if I had had a Blackberry on me at church I would have done the same thing...(but I did sorta speed home)

[Ikester]

EURO has been trending north the last few runs....if your in TX I wouldn't count this out that it heads your way.

By a negligible amount maybe...

[deltadog03]

Your right...its not a huge amount...but, take a euro W bias and might just creep close to brownsville.

[xironman]

DDog,

I don't know much about Euro's bias in the tropics. does it under do the effect of a digging SW. One more if you have time, how do you think the intensity of Alex will effect its response to the trough?

[Ivanhater]

Last night's euro ensembles (first time some went to Texas)