ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

taking a page from IVAN's book of posting the NAM..... never thought I would be doing that for the tropics....

[Vortex]

The last 3-5 hours show a trajectory clearly off to the NW.

[deltadog03]

There is a clear weakness showing on the NAM...Again.......depends on speed of how fast Alex wants to move.

[ROCK]

There is a clear weakness showing on the NAM...Again.......depends on speed of how fast Alex wants to move.

yes there is and that is what is distressing....I am not even looking at Alex..its the NAMs play on the ridge that is telling....

[ronjon]

Hmmm a strange presentation from the NAM with it seemingly trying to possibly develop something NE of the system in that convective stuff...looks like its totally out of it, as you'd somewhat expect.

Actally KWT, this is what the GFS has been showing the last several runs. Not saying the GFS is not out to lunch too. We do have alot of convective activity in the northern gulf well detached from the circulation. The GFS forecasts vorticity to spark up from that activity and weaken the ridge.

[KWT]

Yeah but it creates it at the expense of Alex, thats the problem Ronjon, also takes Alex nearly NNE from the looks of things in the next 30hrs, which is very unlikely. The actual development of convection in the Gulf would make a certain amount of sense if the track of Alex does go to the north.

[Cape Verde]

There are over 3,000 workers on various vessels and rigs at the Macondo oil spill site that are going to find the vast potential swing in path and especially the timing to be a bit alarming.

From a safe N. Mexico storm to possibly being a SE Texas storm is a radical difference. Late last week, they were saying 120 hours before Gale force winds would be the trigger for the Coast Guard. Under some of these models they don't even have that right now.

Am I misreading this?

[ROCK]

NAM at 42hr

[sphelps8681]

Hmmm a strange presentation from the NAM with it seemingly trying to possibly develop something NE of the system in that convective stuff...looks like its totally out of it, as you'd somewhat expect.

Actally KWT, this is what the GFS has been showing the last several runs. Not saying the GFS is not out to lunch too. We do have alot of convective activity in the northern gulf well detached from the circulation. The GFS forecasts vorticity to spark up from that activity and weaken the ridge.

I live in SE Texas and we are getting activity (thunderstorms) now. Not sure if this is related to Alex.

[SunnyThoughts]

There are over 3,000 workers on various vessels and rigs at the Macondo oil spill site that are going to find the vast potential swing in path and especially the timing to be a bit alarming.

From a safe N. Mexico storm to possibly being a SE Texas storm is a radical difference. Late last week, they were saying 120 hours before Gale force winds would be the trigger for the Coast Guard. Under some of these models they don't even have that right now.

Am I misreading this?

I was wondering about this also. I don't think they will get their 120 hours lead time, if this ends up pulling north, unless of course it's movements are very slow. Very stormy in the northern gulf as it is, certainly wouldn't make it ANY easier to do what they need to do in order to close up shop and move to safety.

[Nederlander]

There are over 3,000 workers on various vessels and rigs at the Macondo oil spill site that are going to find the vast potential swing in path and especially the timing to be a bit alarming.

From a safe N. Mexico storm to possibly being a SE Texas storm is a radical difference. Late last week, they were saying 120 hours before Gale force winds would be the trigger for the Coast Guard. Under some of these models they don't even have that right now.

Am I misreading this?

This is a very tricky situation to be in for everyone involved.. especially the NHC.. To me, the NHC is too far south. They are putting a lot of stock into the Euro now.. This is a very difficult system to forecast.. but to answer your question, IF Alex were to track that far east.. i would imagine its more than 120 hours out from now..

[ROCK]

54hr ridge building back in...

[ROCK]

the NAM is so jacked up when it comes to the tropics....it sits Alex in a spin for 2 days...

[Wx_Warrior]

The EURO will set you free.

[rockyman]

Jeff Masters just posted this:

Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Jeff Masters

[ROCK]

The EURO will set you free.

yes I know about the EURO..

still is my model of choice but cannot deny these northern models any longer...

[KWT]

I'd imagine the NHC forecast is a perfect down the middle track between the models, too much uncertainty to go one way or the other, esp with two camps. That being said even the southerly models have shifted northwards compared to thier own previous forecast.

Coniditions aloft look good according to the models, looking more likely to go cat-2 if it shape itself up quickly enough.

[ROCK]

Jeff Masters just posted this:

Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Jeff Masters

well that is not good news now is it.....

[South Texas Storms]

do you guys think that alex will pass far enough east of me that we dont get any rain from him here in SA?

[cycloneye]

From 4 PM CDT discussion about the models.


THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE
YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8. THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.