ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KWT]

To be fair CMC probably won 2009 on Bill alone, it nailed that one so well it probably only had to have ok rest of the season to come out on top...

Anyway there are more models going for a Txas hit o those model map there cycloneye and some that are only just south of the boarder....

SHIPS go upto 85kts more or less, which to be honest seems quite reasonable, actually the GFDL/HWRF aren't really that agressive considering how good the upper conditions are.

[rockyman]

0z Canadian (yellow line)?

[vaffie]

These intensity forecasts are going to be blown out of the water, literally. At this rate, I think it will be crossing the 85 knot mark by tomorrow afternoon...never mind landfall... I've been wrong countless times before, but I've also nailed a lot of forecasts...to my credit.

[ROCK]

0z Canadian (yellow line)?

no the 0z CMC has not ran yet....thats the 12z...


take that back it updated to 0z......my bad..

[americanre1]

so to all the pro-mets on here. What do you guys think would happen if Alex decides to start blowing up right now, and get to a Cat. 2 hurricane by this time tomorrow, what would that do with the models?

[ROCK]

These intensity forecasts are going to be blown out of the water, literally. At this rate, I think it will be crossing the 85 knot mark by tomorrow afternoon...never mind landfall... I've been wrong countless times before, but I've also nailed a lot of forecasts...to my credit.

I would have to agree...did you see that pressure of 1001mb and that was way away from the center.. ...thats flippen crazy low....winds will catch up no doubt,,,,

[Wx_Warrior]

Michael Jordan missed jumped shots & dunks....but won championships. LOL

[vaffie]

I would have to agree...did you see that pressure of 1001mb and that was way away from the center.. ...thats flippen crazy low....winds will catch up no doubt,,,,

I never knew I liked rocks so much!

[Nederlander]

Intensity will be tough to forecast.. I too think that if it gets its core together, then RI is a definite possibility.. personally I think we may see this ramp up to a major and then possibly weaken before landfall.. if it gets pulled too far to the north then shear could be an issue as its approaching land..

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[Dean4Storms]

The CMC has been much more consistent than the Euro!

[Nederlander]

The CMC has been much more consistent than the Euro!

thats why i have a hard time trying to figure out why a lot of people want to get with the euro under the bleachers at the football game?

[bbadon]

Didn't one of the runs of the GFS have this thing stalling a bit as it come off of the Yucatan?

[jinftl]

Overall, the 00z models seem to be converging more on a south texas/north mexico track....the AVNI and AEMI have shifted down the Texas coast and the BAMD and NGPI have shifted north and are no longer the southern outliers.

To the casusal observer, every model in the image below shows a curve back to the west to some extent...the differences are if that west turn is the path until landfall or if there is a curve back to the north again before landfall. The solutions that show a central texas coast landfall show a nnw motion in the next day or so....not sure that is materialzing so far.

00z model runs:





Compared to prior run (18z):

[Ivanhater]

00z Nam 42 hours...further north and east

[Wx_Warrior]

NAM actually stalls it for nearly 24 hrs....really now?

[Dean4Storms]

00z Nam 42 hours...further north and east

That is a big shift east and north.

[Ivanhater]

NAM actually stalls it for nearly 24 hrs....really now?

Alex is not moving confirmed by the votex points on recon

[Ivanhater]

48 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

IMO....Throw the NAM out.

[Dean4Storms]

NAM actually stalls it for nearly 24 hrs....really now?

Alex is not moving confirmed by the votex points on recon

I noticed that as well and you can make it out on sat imagery, really came to a crawl.