ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1561 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:28 pm

I've actually seen the NAM do decent with weaker systems.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1562 Postby wkwally » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:30 pm

from what it looks like to me it seems that I should be going to walmart before the crowds hit the store. I have been watching these storms for a long time and I do not put too much trust in the models. I was dead on with Dolly and my gut feeling is that Alex will be our storm here in Brownsville. If not a direct hit maybe just a little south. I think it will be at least a strong cat 1. I could be wrong but I am putting my money on my gut feeling this time.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1563 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:31 pm

good idea wk...never can be too certain of anything.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1564 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:33 pm

Ivan back to posting the NAM.... :lol: I did that earlier today and it was sort of cool.....
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1565 Postby antonlsu » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:34 pm

ROCK wrote:Ivan back to posting the NAM.... :lol: I did that earlier today and it was sort of cool.....


Im praying that nam doesnt verify
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1566 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:35 pm

ROCK wrote:Ivan back to posting the NAM.... :lol: I did that earlier today and it was sort of cool.....


Lol I saw. I was on my droid downtown P'cola.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1567 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:35 pm

Image
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1568 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:37 pm

Lol..moves it due south

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#1569 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:38 pm

High at 500 building north of it at that time!
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1570 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:39 pm

This is going to be a real hair puller of a forecast isn't it? I'm having visions of Hurricane Elena.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1571 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:39 pm

yep
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

#1572 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:41 pm

wkwally wrote:from what it looks like to me it seems that I should be going to walmart before the crowds hit the store. I have been watching these storms for a long time and I do not put too much trust in the models. I was dead on with Dolly and my gut feeling is that Alex will be our storm here in Brownsville. If not a direct hit maybe just a little south. I think it will be at least a strong cat 1. I could be wrong but I am putting my money on my gut feeling this time.


I referenced Dolly on Friday on one of the other Alex threads.

The initial path of Alex is certainly more southerly at the moment and the time of the year is off about a month, but I agree that this storm should be catching the attention of everyone in the RGV right now.
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#1573 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:43 pm

ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/
UKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE
ALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
..AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE
LATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1574 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:47 pm

somethingfunny wrote:This is going to be a real hair puller of a forecast isn't it? I'm having visions of Hurricane Elena.


Or maybe Hurricane Brett in 1999...

Image
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1575 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:47 pm

They consider GFS as an outlier,and that is why they stick to the previous track.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1576 Postby perk » Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:They consider GFS as an outlier,and that is why they stick to the previous track.



I'm still trying to get my head around the GFS being the outliier.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1577 Postby crazycajuncane » Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:36 pm

A cold front in June! That is usually our best friend. We don't want Alex tracking up on the northern end of the cone or even further than that.

Oil Spill nightmare... Alex please visit Mexico!
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1578 Postby wkwally » Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:40 pm

I was just reading the updates and I am still sticking with my gut feeling. I also remember that each time the models forcast a south texas and mex storm it makes landfall north of the models. I hope that my gut feeling will change by tomorrow. I also do not like the forcast of Alex becoming a cat 2 hurricane before land fall. but the conditions are right. So for now I will stick with my gut feeling. If I am wrong I will just have extra batteries and caned food
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1579 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:42 pm

Oil Spill nightmare... Alex please visit Mexico![/quote]

He just spent the whole day in Mexico :wink:
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1580 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:42 pm

gfs 0z rolling...i'll post the para (coming soon model) when it gets a few frames in...

Here is current model 36h

Image
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