ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[cycloneye]

You are posting the outlier?

[wkwally]

Or maybe Hurricane Brett in 1999...

I remember Bret and that forcast was off as it was well north of the forcast

[clfenwi]

Doing side by side comparisions of the 12Z and 00Z operational through 48 hours.... 00Z is slightly slower... and left of the 12z.

[Air Force Met]

I suspect the GFS is going to move south on this run. So far, comparing the 00z to the earlier 12 z...the ridge looks a tad stronger and the trof looks a tad weaker

[HurricaneJoe22]

This is going to be a real hair puller of a forecast isn't it? I'm having visions of Hurricane Elena.

Could you imagine if this board existed back then? Haha We would all be bald from the hair-pulling!

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 30h (para, new model)



30h (operational)

[Ikester]

The news stations here in Houston are all in the "mexico camp." "Good evening and welcome back everybody. As you know the big weather story in the wx department is the reformation of Tropical Storm Alex. Thankfully, it appears this is Mexico bound and won't be of any consequence to our forecast. That is certainly good news!"

[Air Force Met]

One thing I am also noticing is that little area of spurious vorticity is gone. There had been a little vort max at 500 and 850 over AL/MS during Tue-Wed time-frame and is thought to have been causing the right track bias. It is gone now. So...this should be a better run and tomorrow's 12 z should be an even better one.

[Sambucol]

The news stations here in Houston are all in the "mexico camp." "Good evening and welcome back everybody. As you know the big weather story in the wx department is the reformation of Tropical Storm Alex. Thankfully, it appears this is Mexico bound and won't be of any consequence to our forecast. That is certainly good news!"

I read on another board this post:
Did anyone catch Ch. 13's on-air met a few minutes ago? He said their future cast is showing a more northerly movement toward the Upper Texas coast. He also intimated that he would not be surprised to see the NHC cone move further north at the 4am update.

Did anyone else hear this on Ch 13 tonight?

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 0z 42h (operational)



42h (new model)

[Ikester]

I was watching KPRC Channel 2. He gave two scenarios. One was the Mexican landfall and one was a Texas landfall. He said he really was leaning towards Mexico, but we'll watch it.

[Sambucol]

I was watching KPRC Channel 2. He gave two scenarios. One was the Mexican landfall and one was a Texas landfall. He said he really was leaning towards Mexico, but we'll watch it.

That's who I watched, too. Obviously, they aren't sure where it's going yet.

[Jessie]

Please explain what the new gfs oz means. I can't read the map.

[Wx_Warrior]

the 0z is the time is coming out and the 42h is "42 hours"

[Ikester]

Please explain what the new gfs oz means. I can't read the map.

The "new" GFS, also known as the para or parallel, is a newer version of the gfs that has been tweaked ever so slightly to rid it of discrepancies. 0z is the time. It is called zulu time. Basically it is military time on GMT (Greenwich Mean Time). So 0z would be midnight England time and 6pm on CST here in the US.

[Wx_Warrior]

54h (operational)



para

[srainhoutx]

One thing I am also noticing is that little area of spurious vorticity is gone. There had been a little vort max at 500 and 850 over AL/MS during Tue-Wed time-frame and is thought to have been causing the right track bias. It is gone now. So...this should be a better run and tomorrow's 12 z should be an even better one.

The 18Z specials tomorrow are icing on the cake for Tuesday.

[Ikester]

I think the 0z gfs is stuck...it's been on 72 hours for a while now.

[Ikester]

Central Texas again...

[ROCK]

all the players.....trof still digging....ULL over LA, ULL over the bahamas moving west...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html