ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[wxman22]

HWRF identical to 18z run with landfall around Corpus Christi

[Wx_Warrior]

Come on Rock....Uno mas!!!! EURO could shift !!!???

[ROCK]

Come on Rock....Uno mas!!!! EURO could shift !!!???

yeah it might come up some to around brownsville or a little above...put once you see the N shift stop and the CMC come south you know the models are latching on to an area....

[Wx_Warrior]

gfdl 0z - brownsville

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010062800-alex01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO is south of Brownsville....won't have image until closer to 2am (CST).

[ROCK]

New EURO is south of Brownsville....won't have image until closer to 2am (CST).

I heard...thats a few hundred miles

[Ivanhater]

New EURO is south of Brownsville....won't have image until closer to 2am (CST).

Euro keeps easing north..this is the comparison between runs

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan, what do you have to say about the latest CMC...I know that's your model....

[Time_Zone]

Euro shifts a little bit north. I'm calling for a landfall JUST below the border as a high end cat 1 storm.

We shall see.

[Wx_Warrior]

And, we aren't talking about another week or 10 days with this system.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, what do you have to say about the latest CMC...I know that's your model....

Models seem to be honing in around central texas coast....which compared to a couple days ago was southern Mexico to mid Mexico is quite a shift.....not sure if models will keep though...the lone southern model euro once again shifted north tonight so NHC will shift north imo

[ROCK]

Euro shifts a little bit north. I'm calling for a landfall JUST below the border as a high end cat 1 storm.

We shall see.

little bit? thats 100 miles or so....

[Wx_Warrior]

I guess we shall see...I still believe the EURO will earn a tough one.

[ROCK]

Ivan, what do you have to say about the latest CMC...I know that's your model....

Models seem to be honing in around central texas coast....which compared to a couple days ago was southern Mexico to mid Mexico is quite a shift.....not sure if models will keep though...the lone southern model euro once again shifted north tonight so NHC will shift north imo

I dont think the models will shift too much more...its not going to be the upper TX coast or LA IMO....

[Big O]

Models appear to be converging on area 100 miles either side of the Texas/Mexico border (Brownsville). Given the Canadian's track (Corpus Christi) and the slight (depending on one's perspective) west bias of the European, it is possible that Alex will come ashore in South Texas. However, I want to see the European ensembles and ensemble mean (0z) efore I bite on this scenario. My call (gut) still is 75-100 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, what do you have to say about the latest CMC...I know that's your model....

Models seem to be honing in around central texas coast....which compared to a couple days ago was southern Mexico to mid Mexico is quite a shift.....not sure if models will keep though...the lone southern model euro once again shifted north tonight so NHC will shift north imo

I dont think the models will shift too much more...its not going to be the upper TX coast or LA IMO....

Go to bed!

[wxman22]

I agree it seems that the models are finally consolidating for us folks in Southeast Texas I think anything north of Corpus could be close enough to bring Tropical Storm force winds and anything South of Corpus would probably just bring some feeder bands and rough seas and tide.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Time_Zone]

Euro shifts a little bit north. I'm calling for a landfall JUST below the border as a high end cat 1 storm.

We shall see.

little bit? thats 100 miles or so....

Okay so more then a "little bit" but nothing Massive.

[Wx_Warrior]

If that NMex or Brown/CC scenario pans out, expect plenty of rain...PLENTY

[Ivanhater]

Euro shifts a little bit north. I'm calling for a landfall JUST below the border as a high end cat 1 storm.

We shall see.

little bit? thats 100 miles or so....

Okay so more then a "little bit" but nothing Massive.

If you follow the euro trend over the past 2 days, it is a HUGE shift north..just 2 nights ago it was showing a due west motion into southern mexico deep in the boc