ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[americanre1]

18z BAMS


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Looking at these models, they almost all have it turning N and then NE once making landfall, so if this system stalls where it is right now, won't that cause it to do the turn over the Gulf and cause all of them to be off by just about 100 miles.

also look at the HWRF it is the only one that takes this one West all the way no matter what.

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html


I still think ex-Darby is having something to do with this slow movement.....

[Dean4Storms]

If Alex continues this slow pace all day you can disregard many of these models.

what further south...thats all I can think of...

If it doesn't get up here fast enough, the ridge that builds by Thursday will definitely block it from coming north.

But if it does not gain much lat/lon by the time that ridge builds in how much does it push it west or does it just stall it some more and wait for the next weakness?

In other words how far south does that ridge get and if Alex is still far to the east and it begins getting pushed westward where does it begin to round the ridge as it slides eastward, does Alex ride up the coast?

[Texashawk]

For those who say SE Texas is in the all-clear...

Remember Charley.

It only takes a little turn to have a big impact when a projected track is anywhere parallel to a coastline.

[TwisterFanatic]

For those who say SE Texas is in the all-clear...

Remember Charley.

It only takes a little turn to have a big impact when a projected track is anywhere parallel to a coastline.

Yea, i was just about to post don't ever count anything out when it comes to Tropical Systems.

[txagwxman]

For those who say SE Texas is in the all-clear...

Remember Charley.

It only takes a little turn to have a big impact when a projected track is anywhere parallel to a coastline.

Yea, i was just about to post don't ever count anything out when it comes to Tropical Systems.

Not saying all clear...but less threat yes.

[Nederlander]

Looks like the Euro may score a win if these trends hold.

If Brownsville verifies, this is hardly a victory for the Euro

[TTheriot1975]

In SETX we all can remember Rita doing that. Rita was slated for South Texas 2-3 days before it slammed into the upper TX an SW LA coast. The High pressure that was supposed to remain over us shifted East. All models 2-3 days before it hit had Brownsville. Things can change quickly..dont discount til it makes landfall. Hard to tell at times...but IMO it may still go South Texas or NE Mexico.

[txagwxman]

Looks like the Euro may score a win if these trends hold.

If Brownsville verifies, this is hardly a victory for the Euro

uh? ECMWF has been the farthest south of all models since the beginning...GFS / GFS ensembles / GEM were all over the place... If it is Brownsville, then it is a score on the ECMWF.

[Blown Away]

IMO, one condition that is pretty certain is the ridge will build in a few days and steer Alex more west. If Alex had gained more latitude than expected today a Texas scenerio was likely, but Alex has been for the most drifting as predicted therefore the NE Mexico landfall seems likely.

[Wx_Warrior]

I knew it wouldn't be long before the "euro didn't get this right" posts would come out.....

[Nederlander]

Looks like the Euro may score a win if these trends hold.

If Brownsville verifies, this is hardly a victory for the Euro

uh? ECMWF has been the farthest south of all models since the beginning...GFS / GFS ensembles / GEM were all over the place... If it is Brownsville, then it is a score on the ECMWF.

Euro was south of Tampico before it shifted north, correct? Thats about the same distance from Galveston to Brownsville.. definitely not a 'win'..

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the Euro may score a win if these trends hold.

If Brownsville verifies, this is hardly a victory for the Euro

are you kidding, it sniffed out the general idea a week ago

[Portastorm]

La Pesca is a "win" for the Euro. Brownsville is not. And I'm a Euro-hugger.

[ROCK]

IMO, one condition that is pretty certain is the ridge will build in a few days and steer Alex more west. If Alex had gained more latitude than expected today a Texas scenerio was likely, but Alex has been for the most drifting as predicted therefore the NE Mexico landfall seems likely.

predicted by which model....the GFDL shoots it off with landfall in 54hrs....

[Nederlander]

I knew it wouldn't be long before the "euro didn't get this right" posts would come out.....

We still have a few days to go, so I am not ready to score a win for any model at this point, nor do I really care to.. There will be time for that after Alex is gone.. But I think to make a statement like Euro scores a win if Brownsville verifies, is pretty inaccurate..

are you kidding, it sniffed out the general idea a week ago

If you consider about 400 miles is 'the general idea' then yea you are right..

[Wx_Warrior]

I guess the GFS is nailing it then! LOL....Alex has yet to make landfall...but when he does....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO is just about always the most consistant! No different with Alex either.

[cycloneye]

[funster]

Euro is a total fail. Was trying to drive Alex almost due west from the get go. There is no way it deserves an accuracy prize if Alex comes in around Brownsville. Instead Euro eats crow and gets a fail lame "you are a loser model" award. It also gets laughed at by a parade of 1,000 clowns.