ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[hcane27]

Model wars ......

12 hr ..... Winner UKMET ... 36 miles second place CMC ... 37 miles ... third place GFSO 40 miles ... ECMWF ...47 miles

24 hr ... Winner GFNI ,,, 51 miles ... second place BAMM ... 64 miles ... third place BAMD 64 miles ... ECMWF ... 73 miles

48 hr ... Winner BAMD ... 79 miles ... second place .BAMM 85 miles ... third place UKMET 95 miles ... ECMWF ... 102 miles

72 hr ... Winner ECMWF 80 miles ... second place BAMM ... 99 miles ... third place NOGAPS ... 150 miles

96 hr ... Winner BAMD 109 miles ... second place BAMM 112 miles ... third place ECMWF ... 125 miles

120 hr ... Winner BAMD 125 miles ... second place BAMM 136 miles ... third place GFSO 158 miles ... ECMWF ... 196 miles

granted ... Alex has not been a named storm for 120 hrs ... these numbers include model outputs since it was 93L as well ...

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL.....the truth will set you free

[N2Storms]

[quote="ronjon"]Look at what the 12Z GFDL does in the eastern GOM at the end of its run - possible home grown action?

[url]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010062812-alex01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation[/url][/quote]


Snippet that I posted in the Alex Discussion thread. From the Tallahassee NWS:


NOW FOR THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE (FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW) TO
FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF VORTICITY/MOISTURE TO BREAK OFF
FROM ALEX AND ESSENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS AND A
LOT OF HEAVY RAIN. THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP ALEX SEPARATE FROM THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND
LESS RAIN THAT IS MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WE BLENDED THE GUIDANCE
AS WE ARE STILL NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION WILL VERIFY. THE RESULTING
COMPROMISE FORECAST MEANS HIGH POP (BUT HIGHER DURING THE DAYTIME
OVER LAND) BUT PROBABLY NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING...WINDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR CLIMO. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO SEE SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ALEX VORTICITY/MOISTURE IS SPLITTING OFF BEFORE
WE COULD FORECAST THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION...AND THIS WOULD PROBABLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THIS COMPROMISE SOLUTION
SHOULD PREVENT US FROM BEING COMPLETELY ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

[Big O]

There are several ECMWF ensemble membes with a hurricane near Corpus...but that is the farthest north I see, most of the clustering is around Brownsville.

With most of the clustering around BRO and some ensemble members near CRP, is the ensemble mean north of the operational? If so, by how many miles?

[txagwxman]

Model wars ......

12 hr ..... Winner UKMET ... 36 miles second place CMC ... 37 miles ... third place GFSO 40 miles ... ECMWF ...47 miles

24 hr ... Winner GFNI ,,, 51 miles ... second place BAMM ... 64 miles ... third place BAMD 64 miles ... ECMWF ... 73 miles

48 hr ... Winner BAMD ... 79 miles ... second place .BAMM 85 miles ... third place UKMET 95 miles ... ECMWF ... 102 miles

72 hr ... Winner ECMWF 80 miles ... second place BAMM ... 99 miles ... third place NOGAPS ... 150 miles

96 hr ... Winner BAMD 109 miles ... second place BAMM 112 miles ... third place ECMWF ... 125 miles

120 hr ... Winner BAMD 125 miles ... second place BAMM 136 miles ... third place GFSO 158 miles ... ECMWF ... 196 miles

granted ... Alex has not been a named storm for 120 hrs ... these numbers include model outputs since it was 93L as well ...

@120 hours last Wednesday the ECMWF had a 1002 mb low about 100 miles north of the center...the GFS had nothing but a weak reflection.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS was good for inconsistency.

[Countrygirl911]

well is it me or everyone else that all the models are crazy and can not seem to get a handle on where this thing is going to do they keep jumping all over the place does not seem like they are ever going to get a handle on what Alex will do

[Wx_Warrior]

HOU said GFS finally joined the EURO camp.

[Ivanhater]

HOU said GFS finally joined the EURO camp.

Once again the euro was wrong...look at the huge weakness right now all the way to the upper texas coast....the gfs and cmc saw this..not the euro

The cmc and gfs saw the trough progressing as far south and east as it is now....euro saw nothing but a solid ridge with no breakdown..how some of you say the euro verified I have no clue

[Wx_Warrior]

From the 3:56 pm HOU discussion:

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD BEEN THE
TRACK OF TS ALEX. ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS WERE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
FROM THE GFS/CANADIAN WHICH HAD A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE
GFS/CANADIAN HAVE NOW JOINED THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.

[floridasun78]

could gfdl be right or that error it show two system one alex or maybe 95l

[jasons2k]

We need to make sure we're talking apples to apples when comparing models. I see both of your points. Yes, the GFS and CMC have now joined the ECMWF track into Mexico...but Ivanhater has a point. If Alex had not stalled like he did (which the ECMWF did not see either), we may very well would have seen a massive northward shift in the other models today.

[Ivanhater]

You have not addressed the issue of the trough progression further south and east and a huge weakness that has opened up that the cmc and gfs saw.

Again, the models trended south because of the stall. I'm sure you already saw AFMETS write up on this...

If the euro was right we would have a solid ridge all along the northern gulf right now...take a look at the dropsondes the research mission is dropping now...huge weakness in the gulf..not at all what the euro was forecasting

[HouTXmetro]

Any thoughts on the ULL near the Bahamas racing W/WSW? whas this forecast to reach the Gulf or Western Carribean? and could that possible help erode the just wondering because Alex is playing games doen there in the BOC and not in a rush to go anywhere.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

[txagwxman]

Throwing in the towel...this thing is staying south...If I see a flip tonight (which I doubt), I will be back. Next system should be in the Caribbean in about 10 days.

[South Texas Storms]

Throwing in the towel...this thing is staying south...If I see a flip tonight (which I doubt), I will be back. Next system should be in the Caribbean in about 10 days.

you dont think there is any chance of alex making landfall in texas?

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS had Freeport yesterday. I have some pro mets nearby

[wxman22]

Did yall see what the 18z NAM does? it has it making landfall along the border then going back into the Gulf to make landfall again along the middle Texas coast lol

[Tireman4]

Throwing in the towel...this thing is staying south...If I see a flip tonight (which I doubt), I will be back. Next system should be in the Caribbean in about 10 days.

Wow...that is it...you are done....my goodness....LOL

[KWT]

Well good ole NAM throwing out another different solution, that being said if Alex does not move for a while there will be a chance that the system will end up not getting totally driven west into landfall and then you always run the risk of a trough picking the system up...

Thats a very small risk event but a couple of models have hinted at it now and then.