ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Air Force Met]

GFS was all over the place with Alex...NGOM, etc....

EDIT: regardless, I hope there will be no halt or lost time for the oil mishap this season. It may be a stretch, but it's hope.

ECM had a landfall at about 19.5N at one point...and indeed there were a decent number of runs below 23N as well. As AFM said maybe it has been a little closer to the mark than the GFS...but it would have done so by a 'lucky' stallout occuring...

And that is really my point. I also think the perception is "The GFS was calling for a US landfall and the Euro wasn't." When it comes to verification...it doesn't matter where it strikes...and the fact is they were both wrong. One was wrong to the right and one was wrong to the left.

And lets not forget the GFS was NOT the one leaving the remnants of a sfc low along the coast instead of moving it inland with the 500 mb low. That was the Euro and it was doing it on every run. It would just sit in on the coast.

[Wx_Warrior]

ROCK, you have all people.

Let's keep this mess south....& hope for the best.

[ROCK]

weak ULL at TX/LA border enters stage north....ULL on Bahamas entering stage right.....Darby finally cut the cord from Alex..he is free.....moving due north with NNE wobbles towards the larger convection in that huge feeder band....ridge moving in from the west not as potant as I would have thought....

how about someone explains the players to me rather than the EURO from 3 days ago....

[deltadog03]

AFM, do you think this slows enough to feel the next trof coming down?? I think that is certainly possible as well.

[ROCK]

ROCK, you have all people.

Let's keep this mess south....& hope for the best.

I will take up for the EURO as soon as this gets inland.. ..got parents on the West End of galveston

[Air Force Met]

AFM, do you think this slows enough to feel the next trof coming down?? I think that is certainly possible as well.

IF it stays down there...yes...that is what will happen. I don't think that is going to happen...but it is a possibility. Looks to me that it is trying to move N or even a little E of N as we speak.

[ROCK]

AFM, do you think this slows enough to feel the next trof coming down?? I think that is certainly possible as well.

IF it stays down there...yes...that is what will happen. I don't think that is going to happen...but it is a possibility. Looks to me that it is trying to move N or even a little E of N as we speak.

the huge feeder band to its north is intense...thus lower pressure...no current steering makes sense for it to wobble that way some...IMO

[KWT]

I agree Rock with steering currents weak I think the sheer amount of convection on that eastern side must be playing a slight role in the drift that direction.

It really would be a bust for the models if the system did stay down here for a long time, I can't really see it myself but we shall see...

One interesting thing will be to see how deep those easterlies end up going, they may not be quite as strong as the models were thinking if the system does hang down for a little longer, of course once it merges with the Atlantic upper high feature then the system will probably have to bend back WNW/NW...but lets see how long it takes for that motion to start.

[wxman22]

Looks like the 18z HWRF is similar to the GFS and NAM (it seems like right before it trys to make landfall along the border a trough weakens the high just enough to allow for a more northern turn which allows the system to ride the coast to the middle Texas coast.

[ROCK]

Looks like the 18z HWRF is similar to the GFS and NAM (it seems like right before it trys to make landfall along the border a trough weakens the high just enough to allow for a more northern turn which allows the system to ride the coast to the middle Texas coast.

yep and the NAM sniffed this out first.....if its real then expect the other models to follow....the roller coast continues....

[ROCK]

I agree Rock with steering currents weak I think the sheer amount of convection on that eastern side must be playing a slight role in the drift that direction.

It really would be a bust for the models if the system did stay down here for a long time, I can't really see it myself but we shall see...

One interesting thing will be to see how deep those easterlies end up going, they may not be quite as strong as the models were thinking if the system does hang down for a little longer, of course once it merges with the Atlantic upper high feature then the system will probably have to bend back WNW/NW...but lets see how long it takes for that motion to start.

thats key KWT....as another SV moving into the pacific is going to move in after this high in the rockies...which I might add does not look to be all that...

[Explorer93]

The storm is now Stationary, which maybe could make every model change it's minds?

[Ivanhater]

I'm sitting on Pensacola beach and this is hard to follow on my Droid. .looks like I need to get home BTW waves really churned up..red flags

[Explorer93]

I'm sitting on Pensacola beach and this is hard to follow on my Droid. .looks like I need to get home BTW waves really churned up..red flags

Lots of oil?

[ROCK]

I'm sitting on Pensacola beach and this is hard to follow on my Droid. .looks like I need to get home BTW waves really churned up..red flags

get you butt home we need your EURO hugger expertise...

[Wx_Warrior]

You nuts???? STAY THERE!!!!!!

[Ivanhater]

Shut it rock...ill be home for the 00z runs LOL. Explorer: still tar balls but not the huge oil crash we had a few days ago

[lonelymike]

Don't be late to the airport Ivan your direct flight to Brownsville leaves at 10am. Rock will pick you up at the airport.

All of S2k thanks you both for volunteering to do on the spot reporting ala Jim Cantore. We look forward to both your hourly updates

[allicat1214]

weak ULL at TX/LA border enters stage north....ULL on Bahamas entering stage right.....Darby finally cut the cord from Alex..he is free.....moving due north with NNE wobbles towards the larger convection in that huge feeder band....ridge moving in from the west not as potant as I would have thought....

how about someone explains the players to me rather than the EURO from 3 days ago....

Rock, I don't post much, but to me you've captured the frustration on everyone's mind....

I'm NOT a pro or student met, but what the models project might happen is hard to follow when we can see things already happening that aren't following the models....

you follow??

[thetruesms]

To be honest no model is really doing that good....one simple reason is because of the speed he is moving right now.

To be honest, I thought this seemed to be fairly apparent, that all of the models have been hit or miss - picking up some things, completely missing on others.

In a way, this is a good thing - a reminder that we need to critically evaluate all of the models, and swing from none. This includes taking a deeper look at the mass fields and not just a storm track. Recognizing the limitations of models and still trying to take what valuable information we can glean from them.