ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[americanre1]

EDIT: Just because he is picking up speed doesnt mean throw the models out.. steering currents are starting to rev up..[/quote]


What steering currents???

[clfenwi]

do you guys think the models will flip flop between a texas and mexico landfall until it nears the coast?

A couple of the models are so close to the border that it's almost inevitable that they'll flip from one side to the other.

That said, the spread of the global models is so tight, showing the same idea, that differences in future runs may be more along track (timing differences, in other words) rather than cross track (shifting up/down the coast).

[Nederlander]

nederlander do you think we will have flooding concerns here in san antonio?

models are currently keeping Alex west and some even push him SW after landfall.. you will seem some rain bands I imagine, but the bulk of the flooding will be in the Rio Grande valley, if the border solution verifies and Alex stays pushed to the W or SW..

[Nederlander]

What steering currents???

The ridge to the north and the ridge to the east beginning to build back in.. not sure if you would classify that as steering currents, or just steering mechanisms.. either way, he's picking up speed..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO=Consistant 0Z South of Brownsville!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nederlander]

EURO=Consistant 0Z South of Brownsville!!!!!!!!!!!

You already got it Kerry? can you post the graphics

[KFDM Meteorologist]

No because it's a paid site i get early.

[Wx_Warrior]

Well, older brother says south of Brownsville...Im about ready for bed....LOL

EDIT: I'll post as soon as I get, if someone doesn't beat me to it.

[Nederlander]

No because it's a paid site i get early.

ahh makes sense... is the landfall about the same as the 12z?

[americanre1]

What steering currents???

The ridge to the north and the ridge to the east beginning to build back in.. not sure if you would classify that as steering currents, or just steering mechanisms.. either way, he's picking up speed..

But the problem is, we don't know how strong these ridges are going to be. If they are not nearly as strong as they predict, and with the upper body pushing a lot of the upper air away, this system could stay on a more northerly track for a lot longer than what the models are showing.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xcool22]

KFDM Meteorologist can you post image .thanks.

[Time_Zone]

EURO=Consistant 0Z South of Brownsville!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay....calm down

[KFDM Meteorologist]

No because it's a paid site i get early.

ahh makes sense... is the landfall about the same as the 12z?

Pretty close

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It will be posted soon!

[xcool22]

thanks

[clfenwi]

00Z UKMET shifts a touch to the south compared to 12Z

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 91.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.06.2010 20.9N 91.7W MODERATE
12UTC 29.06.2010 22.4N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2010 23.8N 94.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2010 24.4N 96.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2010 25.2N 97.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.07.2010 25.8N 100.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.07.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Nederlander]

But the problem is, we don't know how strong these ridges are going to be. If they are not nearly as strong as they predict, and with the upper body pushing a lot of the upper air away, this system could stay on a more northerly track for a lot longer than what the models are showing.

well it really all depends on what you trust.. I am a model person unless they are scattered all over the place.. but when the gfs, hwrf, cmc, and euro are all happily playing together, then my brain hurts a lot less.. these models ingest tons of data with lots of dynamics involved.. i trust that over 'if this, and if that' scenarios..

[Big O]

How far south of Brownsville is the Euro showing and when does it depict landfall?

[Wx_Warrior]

will post detaile EURO as soon as i get.

[americanre1]

Is there any models that show this breaking into two separate systems, because looking at the Gulf Water Vapor Loop, that is what it looks like is happening.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.