Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

It's already hazy here
and my allergies are starting to act up already

The haze has also arrived this morning to Puerto Rico.

In another topic,lets watch that wave in the Eastern Atlantic as one model wants to develop it.

[cycloneye]

Barbara,I forgot something important.

Happy Canada Day in ST Maarten.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011857
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST THU JUL 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW WILL EDGE WEST TO 60
DEGREES WEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD AGAIN. THEN WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A TROUGH FROM
A DISTANT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST DIGS INTO THE AREA WEAKLY. ON
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST...BUT
WEAK LOW PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING
NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES
NORTHEAST WHILE A RIDGE STRETCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER CUBA AND
THE GREATER ANTILLES. AFTER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER PUERTO RICO. A STRONG
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY
FADES BEFORE PASSING THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND MAINTAINING RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE IS AROUND 34 WEST AND WILL ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WIND SURGE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING TO
THE SOUTH WHICH HAS HELD SOME MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE ARE STILL QUITE HIGH...BEING
IN THE UPPER 70S...SO THE AFTERNOON HEATING HAS SPAWNED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA TO DORADO AS
WELL AS IN OROCOVIS AND JAYUYA AND JUST NORTHEAST OF RINCON. THESE
SHOULD DIE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS MOISTURE EBBS AGAIN...BUT SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. RENEWED HEATING TOMORROW WILL
REPEAT THIS SCENARIO IN THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NOT HAVE THE COVERAGE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL AGAIN PREVAIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
NEAR TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJSJ THROUGH 01/22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN AS
SEA HEIGHTS ARE HOVERING IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE...BUT EXPECT
SOME SEAS MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE WIND SURGE MATURES. INCREASING SEAS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE WAVE
TO PASS ON TUESDAY.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
Thu Jul 1 2010

Thursday's Highs and Rainfall

Piarco, Trinidad 31.6C 89F 19.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.4C 85F 2.7mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.5C 84F 15.4mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.5C 89F 4.0mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 31.6C 89F 1.3mm
Vigie, St Lucia 31.9C 89F 0.6mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.7C 89F 1.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.0C 90F 3.4mm

VC Bird, Antigua 30.7C 87F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.6C 89F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 32.2C 90F 6.0mm

Kingston, Jamaica 32.3C 90F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.4C 92F
Owen Roberts, Cayman Islands 31.7C 89F
Havana, Cuba 32.8C 91F 1.6mm
Nassau, Bahamas 34.0C 93F
Hamilton, Bermuda 29.3C 85F 0.3mm

Hato, Curacao 32.9C 91F 0.3mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 33.6C 93F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.7C 93F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1030 PM AST THU JUL 1 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO DIMINISHED RAPIDLY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. A RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS...WITH PW HOVERING AROUND 1.75 INCHES THIS
EVENING...AND A FAIRLY STABLE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH CAN BE SEEN
IN CIMMS IMAGERY AND 00Z SOUNDING...WILL HELP TO LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN
SO...EXPECT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE BRINGS A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 02/16Z. FROM 02/16
THROUGH AT LEAST 02/22Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ...AND TJBQ. SOME HAZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...HOWEVER...NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED MAINLY EAST WINDS AT 10-20KTS
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND STRONGER
ABOVE.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020933
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST FRI JUL 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEPARATES A BROAD TROUGH/TUTT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA...AND ANOTHER TUTT LOW...WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...
THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND OVERALL CONVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE REGION
IS SUPPORTED BY AN ELONGATED LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...OVERALL MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PASSING TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.
DURING THE DAYTIME...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT MAIN
CONVECTION WILL BE AGAIN FOCUSED IN THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...WHILE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOME OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY HOWEVER LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ONE OR TWO ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY...AS A TUTT BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVERHEAD...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINATION WILL AID IN ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD AND THE TUTT IS FORECAST
TO EXIT AND MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION... WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 02/17Z. FROM 02/17
THROUGH AT LEAST 02/22Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ...AND TJBQ. SOME HAZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...
HOWEVER...NO MAJOR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED. LATEST
TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED MAINLY EAST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 92 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 81 89 80 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX. THE REMNANTS OF ALEX ARE LOCATED INLAND
OVER MEXICO ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ZACATECAS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF ALEX IN THE UNITED STATES
PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF ALEX
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CONTINUES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 021457
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST FRI JUL 2 2010

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS. THE WIND WAS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MIXTURE OF HAZY SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL STILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG
AND JUST OFF OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 18
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 PM AST FRI JUL 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TROUGHINESS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A TUTT LOW 1180 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN ON MONDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE WEST AND PASS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BUT REMAIN CONNECTED TO A
STRONGER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL SPLIT WITH
THE WESTWARD LOBE DUE NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL NEAR 40 NORTH BY
WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WITH A LOW NEAR 20 NORTH AND 46 WEST WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT.
A SECOND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO AND CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW CONVERGENCE AT LOWER
LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME ROTATION. EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THIS STORM. SINCE IT IS MOVING WEST THOSE IN MAYAGUEZ AND
RINCON CAN EXPECT SOME ROUGH WEATHER BEFORE 6 PM AST.

MODEL ANALYSES OF THE WEATHER HAVE SHOWN A DRYING TREND THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS FAR AS PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH A SPIKE BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PEAKING TUESDAY MORNING AT OVER 2.1 INCHES. THE NAM
ACCELERATES THIS TREND...BUT IS PROBABLY TOO FAST. THE GFS SHOWS
BRIEF MOISTURE ENDING BEFORE 06/12Z...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS
CONTINUING MOISTURE THROUGH TUESDAY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
WEDNESDAY AND THIS SEEMS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. THEREFORE AM
RAMPING UP POPS BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND HOLDING THEM UP THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE BEST ON
THESE DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS THEN SHOULD NOT YIELD SUCH STRONG GUSTS
AS OCCURRED THURSDAY...AS THESE WERE FUELED BY VERY LOW LIFTED
INDICES OF LESS THAN -9...TODAY WAS -10.4. WINDIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SURGE BEHIND THE WAVE...AND
THEN ANOTHER WAVE POSSIBLY INTO PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...VERY GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY NEAR TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH
02/22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE RUNNING 5 TO 6 FEET IN MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AND THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE MUCH. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON
WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND WANT TO PUSH
SEAS THERE TO 11 FEET. THIS IS LIKELY MUCH TOO HIGH...BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CARIBBEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. 7 FOOT SEAS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 PM AST FRI JUL 2 2010

PRC013-027-065-030130-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0252.000000T0000Z-100703T0130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
625 PM AST FRI JUL 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAMUY...HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 930 PM AST

AT 620 PM AST...A VERY STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM
OVER ARECIBO WAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISED MUNICIPALITIES. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF...RESULTING IN THE FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARECIBO...HATILLO AND CAMUY...THROUGH AT LEAST 930 PM
AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030101 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
901 PM AST FRI JUL 2 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ENTIRELY OFF OF PUERTO RICO AND AT
THE MOMENT THE ONLY SHOWERS ON NWS RADAR ARE NORTH NORTHWEST OF
AGUADILLA AND IN THE OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS...IF ONE DOESN`T COUNT
THE SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. CURRENT
FORECAST AS AMENDED EARLIER NOW HOLDING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST. THEREFORE
WILL NOT UPDATE GRIDS OR ZONES FURTHER THIS SHIFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 16 THOUSAND FEET WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF
-8.4. NEVERTHELESS WHEN COMPUTED FROM THE MAXIMUM MOISTURE THE
LIFTED INDEX REMAINED LOWER THAN -10 DUE TO A DEW POINT OF 79 DEGREES
FOUND AT 1000 MB. THEREFORE LOOK FOR LI TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW
TOMORROW EVEN THOUGH 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES BY 03/12Z. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY AND LESS POWERFUL
STORMS TOMORROW...BUT SOME MAY STILL CONTAIN GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS
WHERE THEY DEVELOP. ALSO DO NOT EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
VENTURE AS FAR NORTH OUT OF THE INTERIOR SATURDAY AS THEY DID
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE EAST IN
THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 03/16Z IN A LLVL
E TO ESE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS. SCT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ACROSS CORDILLERA CENTRAL AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH BRIEF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING TSRA OR SHRA AT TJMZ
AND TJBQ FROM 03/17Z-03/22Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES.

&&

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030920
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SAT JUL 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC... AND ALSO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS AN INDUCED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE FIELD MOVES EASTWARDS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON AIR MASS CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
INTENSE HEATING IN SOME AREAS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED BUT EXPLOSIVE
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...BRIEF BURSTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS
AND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS SPOTS BUT NO WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST SAL ANALYSIS...AND
AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS CHART SUGGESTS DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO
AGAIN COVER THE REGION. EXPECT THIS WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS REST OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT
THE MOSTLY HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS.

GFS MODELS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS AS
LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF TUTT ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL FILLING AND LIFTING NORTH OF AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

THEREFORE... FOR NOW THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO ABOVE MENTIONED
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER PART...
EXPECT MAINLY LOCAL AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AIR MASS CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...WITH OVERALL GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND MOSTLY
HOT...DRY AND HAZY SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THEREAFTER...IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION A WEEK FROM
TODAY. STILL SOME WAYS OUT SO FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CLIMO AND GO
FOR THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
03/17Z IN AN LLVL E TO ESE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS. SCT SHRA AND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS CORDILLERA CENTRAL AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING
TSRA OR SHRA AT TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 03/17Z-03/22Z. PREVAILING VFR
CONDS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 91 78 / 20 20 20 30
STT 90 80 90 80 / 30 20 20 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1028 AM AST SAT JUL 3 2010

.UPDATE...HAZY SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A STRONGER
CAP THAN LAST FEW DAYS...BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO
BREAK THIS CAP...RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. WITH LESS TURNING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LONG LIVED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT WITH A LOW WET BULB
ZERO...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...BUT NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS OR BRIEF IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 0317Z-03/22Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES IN LLVL E TO ESE WIND FLOW OF 10
TO 20 KTS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST SAT JUL 3 2010

PRC001-011-081-083-093-097-125-131-141-032215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0253.100703T1915Z-100703T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-SAN GERMAN PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-
LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-ANASCO PR-
315 PM AST SAT JUL 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...SAN GERMAN...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...LAS
MARIAS...LARES...MAYAGUEZ AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 313 PM AST...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS THE FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST SAT JUL 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE BEING PUSHED WEST AND FILLING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOSES
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT "DRIER" AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST THAT
HAS BEEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SHOULD
LINGER FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT
SUNDAY TO BE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE...WITH HAZY
SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS...AND THEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

THE WEATHER MONDAY SHOULD START OKAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
THAT MAY WELL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE
APPEARS TO BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN UNDERNEATH LIGHT TO MODERATE AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL HIGH.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT "DRIER" AIR
MASS AND A NEW ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE LATELY...WE WILL STILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS OR EVEN IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH 03/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...IN A PREVAILING LLVL E WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG