Tropical Wave in western Caribbean--CODE YELLOW 10%

[bob rulz]

South America-bound for sure...

[KWT]

Yeah this system is just crusing through the ITCZ right now, as you say heading towards SA, only shot it has is if it can lift up into S.America.

[abajan]

Its swirl is very clear to see on the satellite pix.

[rockyman]

System is flaring up as it approaches the Windwards...probably shear induced...Once the system clears 65N, conditions appear to become more favorable.

[rockyman]

Changed thread title to "Tropical Wave in SE Caribbean"

The feature I've been tracking is now caught up over Venezuela, but looks to have a chance of emerging in the SW Caribbean tomorrow....there is low level vorticity and heavy convection just off the NW coast of Colombia...As this wave approaches, I'll be watching for any type of development. Right now, the only place in the Caribbean that is semi-favorable is just off the coast of Panama and Nicaragua

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF
12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING TO A DEGREE.
PRECIPITATION STILL IS POSSIBLE IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM
6N TO 8N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.


NOGAPS (which was previously showing a developing TC in the SW Caribbean, now shows the system moving over into the Pacific before devleoping):
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

GFS hints at something, then loses it:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

I think this is the wave the ECM ends up developing onits 00z run something from in the Gulf, seems to come from S.America then gets lifted/split northwards.

[rockyman]

I think this is the wave the ECM ends up developing onits 00z run something from in the Gulf, seems to come from S.America then gets lifted/split northwards.

I think you're right...The Euro shows a low north of Panama/east of Nicaragua in 24 hours...then pulls part of it up toward the Yucatan by 72 hours...then into the BOC by 144...then up toward the TX coast

[KWT]

If it obviously gets its northern section into the SW.Caribbean then it needs be watched because conditions look fairly condusive down there, though it may well run out of real estate before then...I personally think BoC for this sytem because it may take longer to get going thn Alex did IF it ends up trying to develop.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like 96L could be hours away

[StormClouds63]

Yes! Almost same set up. Big High to the north!

So, the 2010 Bonnie (if named) tracks nowhere near where her 1986 namesake did?

[KWT]

Given that low pressure system that is currently 95L (looks like a weak low even if it doesn't develop into a TC) will induce some weakness, whether its enough to lift it up is the question though really...

Probably will end up being 96L, esp if more models come onboard with development.

[HURAKAN]

Great vorticity with the system in the SCAR

[rockyman]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA WITH A CYCLONIC ROTATION OBSERVED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS INLAND NEAR 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

[rockyman]

CMC--develops the system in about 2 days, then takes it across the Yucatan and into Texas:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[rockyman]

System to finally start lifting to the northwest day:


Vorticity increasing:

[rockyman]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/MI ... 030727.txt

LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MOVING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW
GULF OF MEXICO MON EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON WED.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEM IN
THE WESTERN GULF WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER
AND NOW CARRIES A MORE ELONGATED LOW CENTER OVER THE SW GULF ON
WED. GIVEN THE TREND IN THE ECMWF AWAY A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
SURFACE WIND SOLUTION AND THE APPARENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SEEN
E OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH DRIVES THE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY WED AS IT DROPS 3.87 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
6 HR PERIOD...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS. A BLEND
OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z PARALLEL GFS RUN WAS USED FOR THE
FORECAST. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP AN ELONGATED LOW PRES
SYSTEM BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT AND KEEP THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE SW GULF TO 25
KT.

[rockyman]

Beautiful UL Divergence this morning:

[Portastorm]

Point of clarfication: is this the system which the models latch on to for development next week with potential landfalling spots from Vera Cruz, Mexico, up to the upper Texas coastline, or are we still watching that wave with vorticity over the central Atlantic?

[HURAKAN]

Remains very unstable

[brunota2003]

Nice little blob of convection down there, I will say...we will see what it does!