ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Ikester]

While 96L may track like Alex, the overall pattern is what is worrisome. That high is not going to park itself there all summer long. When August and September roll around and the high begins to break down and push east, southeast Texas could be in for some real humdingers!

[HURAKAN]

Buoys in the WCAR show east winds, which indicates that at the moment, there is no LLC

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman57, you may be right about it not developing until it gets in the BOC. Maybe that's why they are only giving it a 20% shot of developing in the next 48 hours. Although things can change.

[Nederlander]

92L was the wave that looked good deep in the tropics, only to ultimately die in the Caribbean. 93L, which became Alex, was designated an invest when it was in the eastern Caribbean (see beginning of Alex thread and 92L thread.)

Technically Alex was the wave behind 93L.. 93L dissipated as the wave behind it caught up. The NHC just left it as 93L to make it less confusing..

[KWT]

Looks like it has the same dual convection pattern that Alex had when it first tried to develop.

Therefore I think its fair to say this one is a little bit behind Alex at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see a short lived TS in the BoC.

[Weatherfreak000]

Looks like it has the same dual convection pattern that Alex had when it first tried to develop.

Therefore I think its fair to say this one is a little bit behind Alex at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see a short lived TS in the BoC.

Untrue, 96L is consolidating slightly more North and East of Alex. Models are not slamming this invest into the BoC, they are sending it through the Yucatan channel.

[southerngale]

Up to 30% chance - Orange




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

[KWT]

Untrue, 96L is consolidating slightly more North and East of Alex. Models are not slamming this invest into the BoC, they are sending it through the Yucatan channel.

Take a look at Wxman57's post where he has stated the models intilization is dead on and then compare where Alex was and you'll see they are pretty much in the same place...

The only way it goes through the Yucatan channel is if it relocates east into the eastern convection, which is possible but thats not really knowable. If it stays where it is, then its going to have to go due north from now which isn't likely.

I don't see many differences synoptically to Alex, the wildcard is 95L, if that develops and heads northwards then it will open up a weakness and draw the system from the Yucatan/CA region upto the SW Gulf but once again that is uncertain.

Still lots to wait and see over, I think this one does develop.

[rockyman]

The orange circle is centered to the NE of the model center

[americanre1]

Why isn't the GOES floaters over both 95L and 96L?

[KWT]

The orange circle is centered to the NE of the model center

Probably covering the bases as its right inbetween the two lobes of convection, they did something similar with pre-Alex as well FWIW.

[Evil Jeremy]

Doc, you sent me back to the wrong week! Wait, this isn't Alex? Great Scott!

Happy July 4th everyone, and happy 25th anniversary to BTTF! Anyways, is it me, or is the NHC (although with good reason) investing systems sooner than they have done in past years? I remember last season when a system as invested at code orange. Now, even systems at 10% are getting the label.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Pressure down one millibar,and winds up to 30kts.

AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 835W, 30, 1009, DB

[HURAKAN]

Luis, not surprised. There's a buoy reporting winds up to 27 knots.

Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
16.834 N 81.501 W

Conditions at 42057 as of
(1:50 pm EDT)
1750 GMT on 07/04/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
ind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 �F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 �F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.4 �F

[wx247]

Why isn't the GOES floaters over both 95L and 96L?

Because dixiebreeze hasn't done her magic.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, I didn't expect a jump up to 30% to quickly...If it jumps up to 40%, then I think we are in business....

[Cainer]

I have a question for the pro-mets or anyone else who's knowledgeable: I've noticed that with pre-Alex and 96L the pressures of the initial disturbances were abnormally low, and I know that lower pressures increase the chances of cyclogenesis. So, do the lower ambient pressures that we're seeing across the MDR make it more likely that these disturbances develop? Or does it have more to do with the whole pressure gradient thing?

[KWT]

I think this one certainly has a good shot at developing. I think much depends with 95L with this one though but I'd expect recon to fly into the system tomorrow providing it stays over water till then.

Current 'track' of any developing system is an interesting NW...

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

I have a question for the pro-mets or anyone else who's knowledgeable: I've noticed that with pre-Alex and 96L the pressures of the initial disturbances were abnormally low, and I know that lower pressures increase the chances of cyclogenesis. So, do the lower ambient pressures that we're seeing across the MDR make it more likely that these disturbances develop? Or does it have more to do with the whole pressure gradient thing?

Lower pressures over the tropical Atlantic increases the likely hood a busy season. I'm not sure about individual storms but over an entire season it will help more systems develop because lower pressure is associated with rising air.