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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5541 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2010 10:43 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010

.UPDATE...HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEGUN MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO AGAIN AND HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT BETTER POPS
EVERYWHERE AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF. THIS WILL BE A WINDY
SYSTEM SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AT THE SURFACE TO 24 TO 40 MPH. A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE RIO CIBUCO AS THE
RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE AND SOME FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AS
ANOTHER PULSE OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS AND RAIN CONTINUES IN
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX AND MAY AFFECT THE
ISLANDS A LITTLE LATER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE DAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD BE OVER...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN WEST NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CONDS ANYWHERE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
OR LOWER CIGS AND VERY BRIEF IFR IN TJPS...TJMZ THROUGH 16/18Z.
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT IN TJMZ THROUGH 16/22Z AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5542 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2010 2:41 pm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI JUL 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MAINTAINING A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AFFECTED THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME AS A RESULT
OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVE. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

SITE SUPPORT...THE XXI CENTRAL AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN SPORT
GAMES MAYAGUEZ 2010 KICK OFF IN MAYAGUEZ ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE OPENING CEREMONY AT 300 PM AST. THE GAMES WILL THEN RUN
THROUGH SUNDAY AUGUST 1. WFO SAN JUAN WILL BE PROVIDING ON SITE
AND IN OFFICE SUPPORT TO THE PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY (PREMA) AND OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES THROUGH THIS EVENT.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TAF SITES THROUGH 17/18Z EXCEPT MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 16/22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSRA WITH HIGHER TERRAINS OBSCURED. BRIEF MVFR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED
ANYWHERE AND AT ANYTIME AREA WIDE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AFT 17/06Z AND ISLAND HIGHER
TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OBSCURED THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 9
FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.


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#5543 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 16, 2010 3:10 pm

Image
Image
:darrow:
Here is the moderate twave located near the 54W that should bring rain tonight and much of this weekend


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 15N MOVING W
AT 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN DUST ENCOMPASSES THIS
SYSTEM LIMITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.


$$
MRF/NAR
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#5544 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 16, 2010 3:50 pm

A strong line of showers is just pulsing in my location... nice gusts since 1 minute!
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#5545 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 16, 2010 4:04 pm

Twave is bursting just east of Guadeloupe... rain is there right now but with good gusts. I won't be surprised to see isolated even moderatetstorms during the next two hours.
Image
Image
Image
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5546 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2010 9:11 pm

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ725-732-735-170345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0017.100717T0152Z-100717T0345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST FRI JUL 16 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...

* UNTIL 1145 PM AST

* AT 937 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM 20 NM SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 35
KNOTS. GUSTS TO 41 KNOTS WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 42060 AT 8:15 PM AS
THIS LINE MOVED THROUGH THE BUOY VICINITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN
WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5547 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2010 9:46 pm



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST FRI JUL 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS HAVE QUIET DOWN FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER A
SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SWD THRU ST. CROIX
HAS BEEN MOVING NW PAST HR AROUND 30 KT AND HAS PRODUCED WIND
GUSTS UP T0 41 KT AT BUOY 42060 TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX. A
SUPERCELL AHEAD OF THIS LINE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF BEING TORNADIC
WITH A NICE HOOK ECHO AND WEAK ECHO REGION AND VILS UP TO 55 AND
TOPS TO 60KFT. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WATERS
SURROUNDING ST. CROIX.

DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE AREA WITH PW VALUES UP TO
2.25 INCHES. TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH AND ITS SFC REFLECTION PROMISES
TO BRING VERY ACTIVE WX NEXT 24 HRS. LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAINS
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF PR STARTING EARLY TOMORROW.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF FOR TOMORROW. IT LOOKS A DRYING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON SUN WITH NEXT WAVE FORECAST FOR MON WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIP STARTING SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT TNCM...TKPK AND THE USVI TAFS
SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 17/12Z. AS A RESULT...TEMPO MVFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
SFC TO 10 KFT AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP TO 40 KTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RAINFALL RECORD WAS SET TODAY AT THE LMM INTL ARPT
WITH 1.73 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 0.98 INCHES
SET BACK IN 1957.

THE FIRST HALF OF JULY 2010 WAS THE SIXTH WARMEST AT THE SJU LMM
INTL ARPT WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 84.3F DEGS. THE WARMEST FIRST HALF
EVER AT THE SJU ARPT WAS IN 1981 WHEN THE AVG TEMP WAS 85.6F DEGS.
THE AVG MINT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JULY 2010 WAS THE FOURTH
WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVG MINT OF 78.9F DEGS. RECORDS AT THE
LMM INTL ARPT DATE BACK TO 1956.

SO FAR 2010 RANKS AS THE FOURTH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD TO DATE
WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.0F DEGS. THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD TO DATE
WAS IN 1983 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 83.1F DEGS. IN TERMS OF PRECIP...A
TOTAL OF 42.41 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ACCUMULATED SO FAR WHICH
REPRESENTS THE WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD WHICH IS 1.52
INCHES MORE THAN THE NEXT CLOSEST YEAR (1958).
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5548 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2010 10:24 pm

Macrocane, those are very heavy rains falling in your country tonight.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5549 Postby Macrocane » Fri Jul 16, 2010 10:38 pm

:uarrow: Yes, heavy rains have been affecting the country tonight, some places have registered 50 mm/2 inches in just one hour, there are some flooded roads and the rivers are being monitored for possible flash floods I will post more info tomorrow. The SNET released today a special report because of the low in the Caribbean and the heavy rains that it may produce on the next days.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5550 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2010 10:57 pm

:uarrow: Ok good,let's see how much rain fell from that. Tomorrow, I will also post how much rain has fallen as so far this year in San Juan ranks #1 on total rainfall ever and is still July.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5551 Postby Macrocane » Fri Jul 16, 2010 11:29 pm

That's interesting cycloneye, in El Salvador if the trend continues 2010 will be the rainiest year on record too, tomorrow I will post a graphic that show the rain that has fallen in the first semester of 2010 versus the average, as a preview I can tell that Los Naranjos has been the rainiest place with 1600 mm/65.8 inches and the average is 700 mm/27.6 inches.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5552 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 17, 2010 5:44 am

Good morning.Rain,rain and more rain is the word for today in Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST SAT JUL 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTH SUNDAY...AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. NONETHELESS...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND
LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. RATHER QUICK CELL MOTION AGAIN TODAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
FLOODING LOCALIZED...BUT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF
ECHOES COULD BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN OVERALL "DRIER" TREND IS
EXPECTED...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVE AXIS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS GENERALLY DURING MONDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE AREAS AND BANDS...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS AREAS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS/DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES...MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 13 TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.SITE SUPPORT...THE XXI CENTRAL AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN SPORT
GAMES MAYAGUEZ 2010 KICK OFF IN MAYAGUEZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING WITH THE OPENING CEREMONY. THE GAMES WILL THEN RUN
THROUGH SUNDAY AUGUST 1. WFO SAN JUAN WILL BE PROVIDING ON SITE
AND IN OFFICE TEAM SUPPORT TO THE PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY (PREMA) AND OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES THROUGH THIS EVENT. THE
FIRST ON SITE TEAM MEMBERS ARE IN PLACE IN MAYAGUEZ AND DAILY
BRIEFINGS FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE SCHEDULED TO
BEGIN ON SUNDAY AT 9 AM.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5553 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 17, 2010 6:29 am

This is why the word rain will continue to rule today as it has been for most of 2010.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5554 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 17, 2010 7:15 am

cycloneye wrote:This is why the word rain will continue to rule today as it has been for most of 2010.

Image

Yeah you're right given this radar presentation :eek: Be vigilant, stay safe and dry during this episode Luis.
Keep us informed as usual and as possible:).
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5555 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 17, 2010 7:30 am

Macrocane wrote:That's interesting cycloneye, in El Salvador if the trend continues 2010 will be the rainiest year on record too, tomorrow I will post a graphic that show the rain that has fallen in the first semester of 2010 versus the average, as a preview I can tell that Los Naranjos has been the rainiest place with 1600 mm/65.8 inches and the average is 700 mm/27.6 inches.


I will wait until this evening to see how much rain falls today to then add the new totals for 2010.
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#5556 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 17, 2010 7:30 am

Busy weekend, rain rain rain on much of EC, all the Leewards included PR and BVI! The first twave is affected PR BVI and the Leewards. A second twave (see discussion of the NHC above twave located near the 47W/48W) should continue the same job tommorow and especially Monday. Saying RAIN is an euphemisma :oops:
Image
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 47/48W FROM 8N TO 19N.
THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A BROAD
AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A
NARROW BAND...EXHIBITING CYCLONIC CURVATURE CONSISTING OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. 850 MB MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 12N48W WHERE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURE OF THE DAY SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 KT NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 31N. THIS
WAVE WILL REACH 55W TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON.


TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
ALONG 62W S OF 17N. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
PUERTO RICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO
INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND
DOMINICA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON.


TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W MOVING W
AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR LAKE
MARACAIBO IN WESTERN VENEZUELA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST ONE BETWEEN BUOY 42959 AND THE ABC
ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST S OF HAITI
AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN THIS EARLY TONIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF NICARAGUA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA EXTENDING FROM 21N85W TO A 1011
MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 13N83W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. AN
ASCAT PASS FROM 0308 UTC SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION RELATED TO THE LOW
CENTER. E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT CAN BE FOUND E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR AND EAST OF THE THE TROUGH AXIS WITH A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
STRETCHING FROM E PUERTO RICO NE TO NEAR 22N65W. THIS TROUGH IS
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
22N64W. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...MORE CONCENTRATED SE OF PUERTO
RICO. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.



FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GR
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#5557 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 17, 2010 7:32 am

Image
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5558 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 17, 2010 10:09 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC015-035-037-057-069-085-095-103-109-123-129-133-151-171530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1130 AM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CAYEY...SAN LORENZO...LAS PIEDRAS...ARROYO...PATILLAS...
MAUNABO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...GUAYAMA...HUMACAO...SALINAS...SANTA
ISABEL AND YABUCOA

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
AGUAS CLARAS...ANTON RUIZ...ARROYO...BUENA VISTA...CEIBA...
COCO...COQUI...CORAZON...GUAYAMA...HUMACAO...JAUCA...JOBOS...
SALINAS...MARTORELL...NAGUABO...OLIMPO...PALMAS AND ROOSEVELT
ROADS

AT 1051 AM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARTORELL...OR ABOUT 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF YABUCOA...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WHERE THEY HAVE
TOUCHED LAND. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS FOR A PERIOD
OF 10 OR 20 MINUTES AS THEY DISSIPATE ONSHORE. HEAVY RAINS AND
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO LIKELY

$$



SNELL
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5559 Postby msbee » Sat Jul 17, 2010 10:29 am

just wanted to say hi to everyone. I am still off island but I keep checking in and looking at what is going on in the Caribbean.
Hope you all are staying dry!
Looks like a lot of rain around.

Barbara
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#5560 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 17, 2010 10:43 am

msbee wrote:just wanted to say hi to everyone. I am still off island but I keep checking in and looking at what is going on in the Caribbean.
Hope you all are staying dry!
Looks like a lot of rain around.

Barbara


Hello Barbara. Glad to see you again and yes, rain is the word in the NE Caribbean for the past week and looks like it will continue into next week.
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