ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

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Ikester
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Re: Re:

#541 Postby Ikester » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:19 pm

chzzdekr81 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Remember even the Euro was breaking down the ridge just the same last night as the other models. I see no reason (at this time) to think Texas is plausible. Things could and probably will change though :D
I agree. I would be extremely surprised if this wound up hitting Texas. Sure, it is definitely possible, but at this time I think Florida and then the northern Gulf coast east of TX has the greatest chance of facing an impact from 97L. The ridge just does not look *that* strong to me (compared to a Dean/Felix ridge for example), and will have periods of weakness ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif ) that should be adequate enough to keep the system moving on a general WNW course over the next few days. A couple of NW wobbles cannot even be completely ruled out from time to time.

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Everyone thought Ike was going for Florida too, but we all know where it ended up making landfall...


Ike was supposed to hit EVERYWHERE at one point or another. East coast of florida, west coast of florida, Louisiana, upper Texas coast, lower Texas Coast, Mid Texas coast, back to upper Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#542 Postby jasons2k » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:22 pm

ROCK wrote:Jasons...welcome to the EURO Brotherhood..... :lol:


Ike initiated me moreso than I bargained for ;-)

In all seriousness, when we are all "comparing" models, as Ivan alluded to, we have to very careful. They all have their known biases, etc., and some do some things better than others.

And a single run of X model showing this or that can mean either 1) it's totally wrong or 2) it's onto something; a change in the pattern.

What I look at the Euro for are trends in the upper-air pattern. I go to that before I even pull-up the steering charts from the NAM. I guess over time you just get a 'sense' of how things are evolving in the pattern, and right now that 6th sense is pointing me westward vs. turning 97L into Ivan's back yard. I think the ridge will be too strong in the 2-3 day time frame for it to turn north. Maybe in the 4/5/6 day time frame as it approaches Texas though...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#543 Postby latitude_20 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:22 pm

Definitely seeing the panhandle/northern gulf coast possibilities.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#544 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:22 pm

It seems to happen from every hurricane... If its just certain to hit some where it goes some were else... Just a wait and see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#545 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:22 pm

Synopsis from the National Data Buoy Center (Buoy 41046)

SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS BY FRI AND THE E CARIBBEAN SAT.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#546 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:24 pm

IMO, where the LLC consolidates rate now will have a big effect on the longterm track if 97L moves towards SFL. In the near term if the LLC consolidates further north, say above 20.5 then the northern tracks may verify and if it consolidates very close to DR coast the southern tracks may verify. Near term may be critical on the longterm track. Maybe we get lucky and the LLC never forms!!
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Re: Re:

#547 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:25 pm

chzzdekr81 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Remember even the Euro was breaking down the ridge just the same last night as the other models. I see no reason (at this time) to think Texas is plausible. Things could and probably will change though :D
I agree. I would be extremely surprised if this wound up hitting Texas. Sure, it is definitely possible, but at this time I think Florida and then the northern Gulf coast east of TX has the greatest chance of facing an impact from 97L. The ridge just does not look *that* strong to me (compared to a Dean/Felix ridge for example), and will have periods of weakness ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif ) that should be adequate enough to keep the system moving on a general WNW course over the next few days. A couple of NW wobbles cannot even be completely ruled out from time to time.

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Everyone thought Ike was going for Florida too, but we all know where it ended up making landfall...
Yes, and anything is definitely possible. However, at the moment I would not consider a Texas hit to be the most likely scenario when compared to scenarios further east.
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Re: Re:

#548 Postby Tertius » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:25 pm

Ikester wrote:
Ike was supposed to hit EVERYWHERE at one point or another. East coast of florida, west coast of florida, Louisiana, upper Texas coast, lower Texas Coast, Mid Texas coast, back to upper Texas coast.


IIRC Ike was a different kettle of fish. There were more variables in play, making the forecast path a more difficult thing to forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#549 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:IMO, where the LLC consolidates rate now will have a big effect on the longterm track if 97L moves towards SFL. In the near term if the LLC consolidates further north, say above 20.5 then the northern tracks may verify and if it consolidates very close to DR coast the southern tracks may verify. Near term may be critical on the longterm track. Maybe we get lucky and the LLC never forms!!



I agree... the further north this consolidates the more realistic a South Florida hit becomes
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#550 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:27 pm

so what happens if it develops into Bonnie and deepens/strengthens quicker than forecast say within the next 24-48 hours? Would it mean a more WNW or NW track in this case? Or would it "pump up the ridge" and head more W or even WSW south of Florida/Bahamas? Thoughts?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#551 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:30 pm

latitude_20 wrote:Definitely seeing the panhandle/northern gulf coast possibilities.


Whilst I think the idea of a panhandfle strike is reducing steadily right now you never can be too sure with these things. As others have said, watch where the center actually ends up forming, this will clearly be key with this system...

Not a bad system possibly in terms of track maybe Rita...though clearly won't be as strong as that!
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#552 Postby Vortmax1 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:32 pm

My personal thought on eventual tracking of any system always hinges on the development of a surface circulation.
We do not have that yet with 97L so I would be completely foolish if I were to hazard a guess regarding track at this stage.
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#553 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:32 pm

Image

Latest vorticity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#554 Postby Ikester » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:33 pm

KWT wrote:
latitude_20 wrote:Definitely seeing the panhandle/northern gulf coast possibilities.


Whilst I think the idea of a panhandfle strike is reducing steadily right now you never can be too sure with these things. As others have said, watch where the center actually ends up forming, this will clearly be key with this system...

Not a bad system possibly in terms of track maybe Rita...though clearly won't be as strong as that!


Don't be so sure! Of all the variables to forecast on a hurricane, intensity is a glorified guess!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#555 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:33 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#556 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:37 pm

KWT wrote:
latitude_20 wrote:Definitely seeing the panhandle/northern gulf coast possibilities.


Whilst I think the idea of a panhandfle strike is reducing steadily right now you never can be too sure with these things. As others have said, watch where the center actually ends up forming, this will clearly be key with this system...

Not a bad system possibly in terms of track maybe Rita...though clearly won't be as strong as that!



The steering currents for Rita were a little different then what we have now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#557 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:38 pm

Ikester wrote:Don't be so sure! Of all the variables to forecast on a hurricane, intensity is a glorified guess!


This will no doubt be bad last words, but I think thats one call I think we can make, this won't be a sub 900mbs, it'd have to totally destroy the July record being Emily of 2005 to even get in the same league as that one :P

Bocadude85, yeah they are, though to be fair that is just a indicator of possible track IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#558 Postby wzrgirl1 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:40 pm

Never say never in the world of forecasting strength!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#559 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:42 pm

Why would you dismiss the panhandle? With this mess South Texas is still in play.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#560 Postby StormClouds63 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 4:44 pm

Still looks like the system is getting sheared ... from the south to the north. Cloud tops being blown off toward the north. Not ready for TD status yet.
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