ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#921 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:23 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
ROCK wrote:There is no strong LLC here...it exposed to the sw of the convection as the shear it blowing off the t-storms to the NE....this is not vetically stacked...



There is not a strong LLC at the moment but its well on its way. Look at this water vapor loop notice that as the ULL to the north is pulling away the shear seems to be relaxing over the system.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html



I am looking at the latest 1KM sat view...I see high clouds booking it SW to NE right over 97L...speed it up at 15 frames

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Here is the latest shear map...

mid level:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

upper level:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Shear tendency: about the only positive right now other than convection is starting to emerge
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#922 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:27 am

Looks like a fairly strong MCL just north of the DR....if convection persists then it should work its way to the surface.......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#923 Postby blp » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:27 am

The models have been saying that development would not start to occur until today, and as WxMan stated that yesterday's convection was a bonus and was not expected. Whether it has a LLC at the moment nobody can say for sure but it is certainly in the right place were the models said it would start developing today so I think we need to see what happens today.
Last edited by blp on Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#924 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:27 am

Make Your own loop ... loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Inflow from the south looking better, we'll have to wait and see if shear relaxes at all. The Shear products are all going to be 3 to 4 hours behind reality.
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#925 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:31 am

Morning Brian,

it sure took a beating last night. But some signs of life today, still a wait and see thing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#926 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:39 am

MGC wrote:Looks like a fairly strong MCL just north of the DR....if convection persists then it should work its way to the surface.......MGC


and it looks like it is starting to lift away from the big island on a WNW heading.....should help inflow

I'm surprised they didn't schedule the plane to go out today though...with a 60% chance of development and the fact it is heading towards land areas in the Bahamas and maybe Florida after that.
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#927 Postby jaxfladude » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:42 am

Well, I still have to keep an eye on this!
The Northeastern Florida area is looking at some rains and winds this Friday-Sunday time frame but not the full impact for now.
But this is still July and any thing can happen quickly.
Stay safe y'all.
Hope that all here on this forum is safe!
Stay safe y'all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#928 Postby Comanche » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:43 am

All I see is 97L fading fast, cloud tops are warming, no deep convection anywhere in the vicinity, strong SSW shear from the ULL it is running into is ripping it up, not to mention the dry air associated with the ULL. NHC correctly cancelled recon as this thing looks pathetic!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#929 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:43 am

gatorcane wrote:
MGC wrote:Looks like a fairly strong MCL just north of the DR....if convection persists then it should work its way to the surface.......MGC


and it looks like it is starting to lift away from the big island on a WNW heading.....should help inflow

I'm surprised they didn't schedule the plane to go out today though...with a 60% chance of development and the fact it is heading towards land areas in the Bahamas and maybe Florida after that.



I think that 60% will drop to 40-50% at 2pm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#930 Postby canes04 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:46 am

Comanche,

Come back in 12hrs and give us your thoughts.
I see developing system.
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#931 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:51 am

It definitely seems like it is gradually getting better organized, since earlier this morning. Convection is not pulsing any longer and you can see it trying to wrap. Granted its not the deep red convection, but its sustaining. SSTs are in the mid 80s downstream where it is heading. If the shear also behaves and dry air gets mixed out some, it can become Bonnie.
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Re:

#932 Postby blp » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:01 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Morning Brian,

it sure took a beating last night. But some signs of life today, still a wait and see thing.


I tried not to get excited yesterday seeing it try to develop, because as Wxman stated earlier the models were showing today as the day for development and yesterday would have been unexpected. We will see what happens today.
Last edited by blp on Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#933 Postby Ikester » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:02 am

From what I can tell, the center is nearly exposed. This is definitely more of a 30% chance of development rather than a 60%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#934 Postby TexasF6 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:05 am

It looks much better in visible....organization finally showing.... :flag:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#935 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:05 am

Observations:
1. Convection building again around "LLC", and the lower level convection is starting to push west through the shear wall which means shear is relaxing.
2. Appears to be moving slowly WNW to NW away from Hispaniola.
3. Going to impact the SE Bahamas, but is more than 700 MILES from SFL, that is alot of warm waters. I'm trusting the models keeping this at the most a strong TS.
4. IF SFL is impacted it will likely be late Friday early Saturday morning.

...Just my opinions only!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#936 Postby blp » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:09 am

Blown Away wrote:Observations:
1. Convection building again around "LLC", and the lower level convection is starting to push west through the shear wall which means shear is relaxing.
2. Appears to be moving slowly WNW to NW away from Hispaniola.
3. Going to impact the SE Bahamas, but is more than 700 MILES from SFL, that is alot of warm waters. I'm trusting the models keeping this at the most a strong TS.
4. IF SFL is impacted it will likely be late Friday early Saturday morning.

...Just my opinions only!!!


Good observations. Convection not as impressive today but the structure looks better. Let's see if the models are right on this developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#937 Postby Steve H. » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:11 am

I think it's looking better this hour. If the shear relaxes it could ramp up quickly. Like the post earlier said, it is moving away from Hispaniola slowly and shoud wrap in some convection. Just don't see how the NHC missed or didn't consider the ULL that was moving SW in front of it yesterday in considering their percent development chnaces. They should be going up now, not down!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#938 Postby canes04 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:12 am

Blown Away,

Agree with your obs and we know what storms can do in this area.
ULL does seem to be lifting out, this could find a very favorable area in the next 48hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#939 Postby poof121 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:20 am

No wonder the models have shifted west, take a look this steering currents loop. That's some high!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html
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#940 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:24 am

Still looking pretty poor (and I'm being nice here) based on this lastest visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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