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poof121 wrote:Looking at the BAMs seems to indicate practically no shear in the eastern gulf, which is bad...
Stormcenter wrote:It will be there.poof121 wrote:Looking at the BAMs seems to indicate practically no shear in the eastern gulf, which is bad...
Ivanhater wrote:GFDL
KWT wrote:Given the synoptic and the close nature of the ULL, track may actually end up being closer to the northerly models. We shall see...wonder what ECM shows on its 12z run if anything.
KWT wrote:Given the synoptic and the close nature of the ULL, track may actually end up being closer to the northerly models. We shall see...wonder what ECM shows on its 12z run if anything.
If the TVCN is just an average of the HWRF and GFDL, what is it doing lying outside of their envelope?ROCK wrote:Ivan, I see that you left out the CMC and EURO in your DYnamic model plot......![]()
TVCN and its brothers are just splitting the difference on the HWRF and GFDL runs which are crappola...so garbage in garbage out......Some of those are GFS ensembles also.
look outside the box, bro...see the light....
ROCK wrote:Ivan, I see that you left out the CMC and EURO in your DYnamic model plot......![]()
TVCN and its brothers are just splitting the difference on the HWRF and GFDL runs which are crappola...so garbage in garbage out......Some of those are GFS ensembles also.
look outside the box, bro...see the light....
thetruesms wrote:If the TVCN is just an average of the HWRF and GFDL, what is it doing lying outside of their envelope?ROCK wrote:Ivan, I see that you left out the CMC and EURO in your DYnamic model plot......![]()
TVCN and its brothers are just splitting the difference on the HWRF and GFDL runs which are crappola...so garbage in garbage out......Some of those are GFS ensembles also.
look outside the box, bro...see the light....
You are right in that it is a multimodel average, and you might even be correct in that at one point or another, it was a simple average of the GFDL and HWRF. However, it goes deeper than that. It's a kind of "smart" ensemble, where NHC can create their own ensemble mean. They can pick from GFDL, HWRF, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFSI, GFDN (GFDL using NOGAPS initialization), and the Euro, and weight each member as they choose.ROCK wrote:So its not the average between the 2 models? I do not see where a specific TVCN model is ran at any time frame.....do you have a link where I can see the TVCN being ran? that would be helpful...
thetruesms wrote:You are right in that it is a multimodel average, and you might even be correct in that at one point or another, it was a simple average of the GFDL and HWRF. However, it goes deeper than that. It's a kind of "smart" ensemble, where NHC can create their own ensemble mean. They can pick from GFDL, HWRF, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFSI, GFDN (GFDL using NOGAPS initialization), and the Euro, and weight each member as they choose.ROCK wrote:So its not the average between the 2 models? I do not see where a specific TVCN model is ran at any time frame.....do you have a link where I can see the TVCN being ran? that would be helpful...
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