ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Hurricane]

The path still shows a SETX/SWLA storm even with the relocation of the center.

The path wasn't updated. It is updated at the 4pm cdt advisory

It says 2pm in the graphic

[redfish1]

to be honest i dont think the center relocation is going to effect the track much for this situation.

[petit_bois]

The path still shows a SETX/SWLA storm even with the relocation of the center.

they seldom tweek the forcast line at the 2pm advisories.. they simply ajust the location of the center.

[HurricaneBelle]

Anybody have color from JB?

He just had this to say on his Twitter feed (@BigJoeBastardi):

td3: I dont believe TPC. Track further north. Worst weather Miami to Fort Pierce. Keys: probably not much. Named or not, same idea as before.

[Air Force Met]

The path still shows a SETX/SWLA storm even with the relocation of the center.

The path wasn't updated. It is updated at the 4pm cdt advisory

It says 2pm in the graphic

They do not update the track in the intermediate advisories...unless its a special update. Tey just update the location and this makes the track look funny sometime...especially with a center relocation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those wondering JB's latest thoughts, I just watched his videos and read his discussion and this is what he is thinking right now in a nutshell..

He thinks the system will move WNW/NW and make landfall in south Florida...basically following the far northern edge of the NHC forecast track cone. He also thinks the storm's greatest impacts will be from Miami up to about Vero Beach (i.e. north of the center) and thinks that the Keys shouldn't see too much significant weather from the storm. He also does not seem too excited about the chances of strengthening once in the Gulf, thinking that the storm will probably be at its strongest when it hits Florida rather than after moving across the state.

[Steve]

>>My bet right now is that the center will continue to reform/migrate to the large amount of new convection beginning to develop to its north... recon will likely find the center closer to 23 N by the time their mission is over..

Teleconnects nicely with WPAC system Chantau (sp?) with a couple of moves NNW prior to settling WNW. This will settle probably between WNW and W. PERSONAL FORECAST DISCLAIMER: This is my opinion. And while my opinions are based on sound observation and knowledge, please use local NOAA and NHC products for life and safety decisions.

[JPmia]

Anybody have color from JB?

He just had this to say on his Twitter feed (@BigJoeBastardi):

td3: I dont believe TPC. Track further north. Worst weather Miami to Fort Pierce. Keys: probably not much. Named or not, same idea as before.

Oh no he found twitter...though I don't disagree with him much...here is a close up and great sat loop to follow this the next day or so:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... Carribbean

Our daily forecast for tomorrow on weatherunderground is:

"Tropical Storm Three"

[Hurricane]

Do you think the cone will shift north dramatically?

[Bailey1777]

AFM what do you think of JB's thoughts I don't see it happening.

[Hurricane]

AFM what do you think of JB's thoughts I don't see it happening.

I don't see it happening either.

[Bocadude85]

To me it looks like its starting to weaken a little

[Wx_Warrior]

"Edit: Are we so sure Bonnie won't impact the tip of Florida?"

I'm confused...When did this become TS Bonnie?

[lebron23]

accuweather track is further south around the TX/LA border

[tolakram]

Interesting visual signature.

[Air Force Met]

AFM what do you think of JB's thoughts I don't see it happening.

If TD3 makes landfall towards Miami...it won't be because of steering currents...it will be because of center reformations.

I also disagree with his intensity forecast. I think the ULL will be out of the way enough in 2 days for this to make a run at Cat 1 sometime late Sat or Sun....less than 24 hrs before Gulf landfall.

So...I think he is too far east and too weak.

[Macrocane]

To me it looks like its starting to weaken a little

It looks a little less organized, the convection is less intense and is more elongated than earlier, I'm not sure if the LLC has weakened but at least the convection has.

[CrazyC83]

Recon already supports Bonnie though. Lots of SFMR readings in the high 30s.

[Stormcenter]

I hate to (but I'm going to anyway) beat a dead horse on this but TD3 is still
a struggling system. Yes the presentation has improved tremendously compared to yesterday and of course now it's a TD. But it still has a mostly exposed center and is dealing with shear/dry air. I'm not saying things may not improve in the short term (tomorrow)for TD3 but long term it still doesn't look good. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[eastcoastFL]

If you u want boom you need a hybrid my friend ts not usually have thunder or lightning[/quote][/quote]

I know that. Come on im from florida been through plenty of these. I am talking about the pretty blue lights from the popping transformers.