Wave WSW of CV Islands

[cycloneye]

Ivan, is the track of NOGAPS the same as GFS,EURO? I dont say CMC, UKMET as they are far north.

[wzrgirl1]

One thing we may be able to deduct is that the models have been pretty consistent with something coming out of this area. This one may be the one to watch this season.

[KWT]

Man thats a close run thing on the Europe, the Upper high has just about enough strength to take it probably into Florida, but a little weaker and you'll probably get the exactly same thing as we saw on the GFS.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro in the Gulf through the Florida straits, with a break in the ridge along the northern Gulf at 240 hours

Waiting on higher resolution

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, is the track of NOGAPS the same as GFS,EURO? I dont say CMC, UKMET as they are far north.

Nogaps is very similar to the Euro and GFS, maybe a touch further south heading WNW toward PR as a strong Hurricane

[cycloneye]

Ivan, is the track of NOGAPS the same as GFS,EURO? I dont say CMC, UKMET as they are far north.

Nogaps is very similar to the Euro and GFS, maybe a touch further south heading WNW toward PR as a strong Hurricane

Thank you my friend.

[Blown Away]

168 hours...Bahamas....There should be no reason for this not to develop giving the strong reflection on the Euro

I have a hard time reading these maps, in 168 hours is the high building in or does it appear the system will turn north?

[Gustywind]

Ivan, is the track of NOGAPS the same as GFS,EURO? I dont say CMC, UKMET as they are far north.

Nogaps is very similar to the Euro and GFS, maybe a touch further south heading WNW toward PR as a strong Hurricane

Thank you my friend.

be on your guard Luis as Guadeloupe too...

[KWT]

BA, from there there is enough westward ummph to push the system on a track close to Bonnie.

The ECM really isn't keen on this system but it does do more this run then it has done on the last few runs.

[Ivanhater]

192 Higher resolution...Florida straits

[srainhoutx]

S of LA...

[Ivanhater]

That ridge is really weak

[cycloneye]

Still nothing new at ATCF site in terms of reactivating 90L or adding new invest 91L.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

Appears to be slowly getting better organized, which is rare since D-Min is here

[Ivanhater]

Well, the Euro has been coming further north each run and is pretty much in line with the GFS for much of the time.

Only difference is in the long range when the Euro has just enough of ridging to push in the GOM...

I'm becoming more confident with a strike in the NE Islands heading on a general direction of the Bahamas..we can deal with the rest later...

[curtadams]

It was a large low this morning and it's still a large low. People are getting excited because there's some convection toward the center and earlier there was none. I expect development, but probably very slowly as that's how these large lows go.

[Gustywind]

Well, the Euro has been coming further north each run and is pretty much in line with the GFS for much of the time.

Only difference is in the long range when the Euro has just enough of ridging to push in the GOM...

I'm becoming more confident with a strike in the NE Islands heading on a general direction of the Bahamas..we can deal with the rest later...

Hope that you will be faulse with your famous strike in the NE islands !!!

[HURAKAN]

It was a large low this morning and it's still a large low. People are getting excited because there's some convection toward the center and earlier there was none. I expect development, but probably very slowly as that's how these large lows go.

I agree, but the fact that convection has increased during D-min has to mean something.

[Gustywind]

Maybe a slow and steady process is in route?...time will tell.

[KWT]

Agreed Ivanhater but it does need to be noted that alot of the systems globally this year has been tracking westwards...so we shall see...

The general idea of this area heading towards the NE Caribbean is a good one though I feel, just a few uncertainties about afterwards, the ridge does weaken thats for sure which looks like a decent idea.