Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

nice thing about this board. we all watch out for each other!

[msbee]

It's a Depression!

Atlantic Tropical Depression FOUR Advisory Number 1
Mon, 02 Aug 2010 09:35:50 -0500



000
WTNT34 KNHC 021435
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 41.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

nice thing about this board. we all watch out for each other!

Yeah very good thing Barbara i like it like that
AZUCAR AZUCAR

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 021452
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

DATA FROM AN 1148 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS MOVING RATHER BRISKLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
EVEN FASTER MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE HWRF AND ECMWF FARTHER RIGHT
SHOWING MORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. IT
IS WORTH REMINDING USERS THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS 250 TO 300 MILES.

THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AROUND 65W. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO
AROUND 30 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK
IN INTENSITY AROUND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...IT COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH SUCH A FAST FORWARD SPEED...AND COULD OPEN BACK UP
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 12.6N 41.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 44.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 48.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 16.4N 53.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.4N 57.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.0N 63.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Very interesting discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 PM AST MON AUG 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NNE OF PR WILL MEANDER OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. MEANWHILE...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD FROM THE EAST WED AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE. TD#4 EXPECTED TO PASS NE OF THE AREA EARLY THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN
AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A RAPID SURGE
IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
LOCAL AREA. TUE SHOULD START OUT PRETTY WET AS WAVE INTERACTS
FAVORABLY WITH TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE DEPARTS RAPIDLY TUE NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF WED. HOWEVER...ISOLD/SCT TSRA STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVR NW
PR.

TD#4 CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING TD#4
REMAINS A CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CIRCULATION IT SHOULD PASS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF PR EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS SMALL
AND WILL BE ENCOUNTERING VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. GIVEN ITS FAST MOTION IT COULD ALSO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND SVRL RELIABLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING TD#4
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. IN THAT CASE...IT WOULD BE STEERED BY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIKELY TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO THE AREA. GIVEN
THE FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SPED UP ASSOCIATED WX
BRINGING SCT SHRAS TO COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU. IT APPEARS
THU WILL SEE VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW AND THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
A STRONG SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVR THE INTERIOR. SO STRONG
CONVECTION WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS A GOOD BET. SFC WIND FLOW
TURNS SRLY FRI WITH TAIL END OF TD#4 LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE. SO FCST DEFINITELY NOT A CLEAR CUT AND USERS ARE
REMINDED THAT TRACK FCSTS ERRORS HAVE AVERAGED MORE THAN 200NM AT DAY4.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND
TJMZ THROUGH 02/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF TAF SITES. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM BY 03/04Z...REACHING
THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY 03/12Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING E TO SERLY AT 15 TO 25
KTS AFT 03/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KT NEXT FIVE DAYS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT
ATLC WATERS. TD#4 FCST CLOSEST APPROACH TO SAN JUAN IS 8AM THU
AROUND 280 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. ATTM...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

[cycloneye]

Hey Gusty,I am borrowing your image.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHARPLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE USED FOR
THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST...BUT HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL IN THE
REMAINING QUADRANTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14. DESPITE THEIR POOR
INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION AT 12Z...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXCEEDING
20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS TAKING A
VERY WEAK CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A LARGE BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHEREAS THE HWRF...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS
FAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL HAVE MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH WHICH ERODES THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE LESS AMPLITUDE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT 5-WAVE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...MY FEELING IS THAT SUCH SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN 36
HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE. BY 48-60 HOURS...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN
30 KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THESE HIGH SHEAR VALUES MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF
THE THE GFS HAVING MUCH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND ALSO DUE TO 500 KM RADIUS THAT THE
SHIPS USES IN COMPUTING SHEAR VALUES. IF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RATHER THAN OUTRUNNING IT
...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL END UP STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.0N 42.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 45.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 15.2N 49.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 18.5N 57.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 64.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 67.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 69.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

Hey Gusty,I am borrowing your image.

yeah it's free you can you like it have a good lunch

[bvigal]

Just two comments here for my neighbors in the NE Caribbean.

One, 5pm advisory shows a faster speed and arrival time than previously.

Secondly, if you or friends have a boat, you should watch the 1-2-3 rule graphic, below. (I'm putting in the live link, so this will update as newer become available)

This time-tested marine rule, often referred to in conjunction with discussion of US Navy losses of 3 destroyers and 765 men in Halsey's Typhoon in 1944, was a valuable addition to NHC site for mariners. Basically, the shaded area consists of the radius of forecast 35kt winds by quandrant, plus average storm forecast error at 24, 48, and 72hrs. (NOTE: in recent years, avg track errors have reduced with improved forecasting, but these numbers still accepted for this purpose.) The choice of 35kt or higher wind as a threshold of area to avoid is based upon the likelihood of problems that may arise aboard a vessel, and the increased challenge of dealing with such problems in winds of 35+ kts. (and rain, and gusts, and reduced visibility, and high seas, and lightning, etc.) As you can see, parts of the NE-most islands lie within this 'cone'. If you have a vessel that you may wish to reposition, depending upon how long that may take to accomplish, don't wait until the last minute. Yes, this is presently forecast to be "ONLY" a tropical storm. But the 5pm advisory has it at 55kt at two closest points to the islands, 2pm Wed and 2pm Thursday, which would include 65kt gusts. Given the average track error, if you wait until Wed morning to move your boat, and the storm track creeps further westward, even if not directly over you, you could still be dealing with wind GUSTs well in excess of your comfort zone, especially in squalls.

You can read more about 1-2-3 Rule at http://www.weather.gov/os/marine/faq.htm#18

Stay safe!

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 2100Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N
42.5W OR LOCATED ABOUT 1270 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W
AND 46W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

I am starting to think it may get more closer or even move thru the northen Leewards as it has not gained sufficient latitude to be a fish.

[caribepr]

I haven't asked if any friends have moved their boats yet, but I would think it's happening...

[Gustywind]

I am starting to think it may get more closer or even move thru the northen Leewards as it has not gained sufficient latitude to be a fish.

Hummm a bit agree with you but for now it's once difficult to confirm that but for sure the cone of incertitudes is becoming tighter and tighter.

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 030252
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION
THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN AND THE
CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB. NOAA BUOY 41041
HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 KT ABOUT
70 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS EVENING WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED DURING
THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/20. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. DURING
THIS TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER RANGE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD MUCH EARLIER...WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND LIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH THE TVCN CONSENSUS
SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD THIS CYCLE...WE PREFER TO KEEP THE
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK AT THAT TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING. IN 36-48 HOURS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST
IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.6N 45.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.6N 48.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 52.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 56.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 19.6N 59.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 23.5N 65.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 68.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 31.0N 69.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[FireBird]

Hello my Carib friends, I know we are all keeping a close eye on TD4 especially as development is slow and it continues to track more west than models had estimated, and I'm glad to see that folks are taking advance preparations.
Just an update from down south - the wave that passed overhead today was devastating to the majority of the country. It has been described on the news as "one of the worst floods in recent history". Flood water heights from 4-10 feet in many districts. Tens of thousands of persons have been directly affected, and the early estimate of losses in the hundreds of thousands. At present, all emergency responders have been activated. The only thing that hasn;t been done is to call a state of emergency.
Thing is - I am so upset with my local Met office for not sufficiently warning the public, or alerting the relevant authorities so they could mobilize in advance. While the flooding may have been the same, I think to be forewarned is to be forearmed. In the absence of this, people did not secure their belongings, and so there goes property, pets, and livestock - some of which could have been prevented.
I shudder to think of what will happen if we get a full force hurricane, and am equally in despair of a TS.

[Gustywind]

Hello my Carib friends, I know we are all keeping a close eye on TD4 especially as development is slow and it continues to track more west than models had estimated, and I'm glad to see that folks are taking advance preparations.
Just an update from down south - the wave that passed overhead today was devastating to the majority of the country. It has been described on the news as "one of the worst floods in recent history". Flood water heights from 4-10 feet in many districts. Tens of thousands of persons have been directly affected, and the early estimate of losses in the hundreds of thousands. At present, all emergency responders have been activated. The only thing that hasn;t been done is to call a state of emergency.
Thing is - I am so upset with my local Met office for not sufficiently warning the public, or alerting the relevant authorities so they could mobilize in advance. While the flooding may have been the same, I think to be forewarned is to be forearmed. In the absence of this, people did not secure their belongings, and so there goes property, pets, and livestock - some of which could have been prevented.
I shudder to think of what will happen if we get a full force hurricane, and am equally in despair of a TS.

impressive!

[caribepr]

Horrible realities, Firebird. Hope your Met office gets the message to warn your people earlier with the present devastation as an in the face result of waiting too long. Our thoughts are with you all.

[cycloneye]

Wow,that is very bad news from there Firebird and that was only a tropical wave, not a Tropical Cyclone. Hopefully all drys out there to then recover.