ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

The lack of convection is due to some pretty strong SAL just to its north. The system is trying to moisten the air around it. The shear right now is light, the problem is the dry air. If it's able to moisten the atmosphere around it enough, then it would start to ramp up. I don't know if that's going to happen, the SAL wave appears to be following the system. By the time the dry air goes away, TD 4 enters the region of high shear. Some very negative factors affecting development. I do wonder how far south the track will end up and if it will enter the GOM and rapidly spin up there where it's more favorable.

[Aric Dunn]

The lack of convection is due to some pretty strong SAL just to its north. The system is trying to moisten the air around it. The shear right now is light, the problem is the dry air. If it's able to moisten the atmosphere around it enough, then it would start to ramp up. I don't know if that's going to happen, the SAL wave appears to be following the system. By the time the dry air goes away, TD 4 enters the region of high shear. Some very negative factors affecting development. I do wonder how far south the track will end up and if it will enter the GOM and rapidly spin up there where it's more favorable.

yeah its likely to stay farther south the weaker it is and the sal plume is pretty big..

[KWT]

cmc is much weaker and way south ..

how strong is the CMC showing TD4 in that last frame (144hr)? Looks like a potential SE FL threat. Looks like a trend back to the west

Its probably a strong TS, the CMC doesn't really strengthen this one until the Bahamas and probably would get torn a new one by Hispaniola...but that run is interesting.

Anyway still moving just north of west, will probably track a touch south of the forecasted point unless it bumps northwards, I'd hold at 30kts as well, nothing to indicate any strengthening. Convection actually looks more ragged again. Quite possibly the SAL is causing a few issues.

[I-wall]

Intresting????

According to that, i'd expect TD4 to cruise west into Caribbean.

[cperez1594]

Intresting????

According to that, i'd expect TD4 to cruise west into Caribbean.

Exactly but of course that may change. If it stays weak then it is a big possiblity!

[KWT]

The lack of convection is due to some pretty strong SAL just to its north. The system is trying to moisten the air around it. The shear right now is light, the problem is the dry air. If it's able to moisten the atmosphere around it enough, then it would start to ramp up. I don't know if that's going to happen, the SAL wave appears to be following the system. By the time the dry air goes away, TD 4 enters the region of high shear. Some very negative factors affecting development. I do wonder how far south the track will end up and if it will enter the GOM and rapidly spin up there where it's more favorable.

I really can't see anyway this gets into the Gulf...whilst the CMC solution is possible I feel its on the left handside of whats likely, the pattern is still broadly troughy and thus its got to gain some latitude.

The one thing that could happen is it tracks far enough south to avoid being torn apart by the shear providing the TUTT does lift up somewhat, or at least not be destroyed, then when it does slow down close to the bahamas region as the steering slackens, things can happen.

[Aric Dunn]

The lack of convection is due to some pretty strong SAL just to its north. The system is trying to moisten the air around it. The shear right now is light, the problem is the dry air. If it's able to moisten the atmosphere around it enough, then it would start to ramp up. I don't know if that's going to happen, the SAL wave appears to be following the system. By the time the dry air goes away, TD 4 enters the region of high shear. Some very negative factors affecting development. I do wonder how far south the track will end up and if it will enter the GOM and rapidly spin up there where it's more favorable.

I really can't see anyway this gets into the Gulf...whilst the CMC solution is possible I feel its on the left handside of whats likely, the pattern is still broadly troughy and thus its got to gain some latitude.

The one thing that could happen is it tracks far enough south to avoid being torn apart by the shear providing the TUTT does lift up somewhat, or at least not be destroyed, then when it does slow down close to the bahamas region as the steering slackens, things can happen.

well what could happen is that it opens back up to sharp wave axis and heads through carribean and eventually makes it to western carribean and reforms..

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021753
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED ABOUT 1365 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT...
PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 41.1W OR ABOUT
1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 1500 UTC MOVING
WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 39W-43W.


$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Guesses for the 5PM anyone?

I think it will remain at 35MPH, with a WNW or W derection.

[lester]

Guesses for the 5PM anyone?

I think it will remain at 35MPH, with a WNW or W derection.

35 mph winds most likely moving w

[HURAKAN]

a solid depression

[StormClouds63]

Guesses for the 5PM anyone?

I think it will remain at 35MPH, with a WNW or W derection.

Stays as TD-4 moving quickly in a WNW direction.

Cloud tops warming this afternoon. Presentation on satellite not nearly as impressive as earlier today. Plenty of dry air north and east of TD-4. The bigger question ... does this even reach TS status (a.k.a. Colin) before weakening begins.

[Hurricane Andrew]

See that new convective burst on the ENE? I wonder if it's reforming its center, or just expanding it's self.

[KWT]

well what could happen is that it opens back up to sharp wave axis and heads through carribean and eventually makes it to western carribean and reforms..

I think this has pretty much no chance of getting into the W.Caribbean, the upper trough is a good deal too strong to allow it to get that far west, even on its current heading before any real lift occurs as the troughs come down it'd probably have a somewhat difficult time reaching the W.Caribbean, but we will see.

[Hurricaneman]

I have no idea where this will end up or if it even survives the tutt in a few days and dry air its currently going through

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 04, 2010080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 418W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still TD4

[Aric Dunn]

well what could happen is that it opens back up to sharp wave axis and heads through carribean and eventually makes it to western carribean and reforms..

I think this has pretty much no chance of getting into the W.Caribbean, the upper trough is a good deal too strong to allow it to get that far west, even on its current heading before any real lift occurs as the troughs come down it'd probably have a somewhat difficult time reaching the W.Caribbean, but we will see.

well not as a TD ... my point was if it weakened and opened up to a wave then it could..

[rreedbug3]

This is like a busy year. My head's spinning. Woo-hoo!